Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints

[Cowan]

Thought it was about time I started a thread of my selections on here. And the start of the Flat season seems the perfect time to do it. Specialisation UK Only Flat & All Weather Class 4 & 5 Distance 5f to 7f 3yo+ & 4yo+ Handicaps Only No more than 50% of jockeys making a claim (races with Professionals only) No Mares or Fillies Races 8 Runners or more No Hard or Heavy Ground Method These are not system selections. I use a holistic method which brings together (what I consider) the important factors. Each race takes me around 30 - 60 minutes. The principles of the system are the same as those given by Willain Quirin in 1983, the American Mathematics Professor and author of several influential horse racing books. 1. Ability 2. Form and Condition 3. Angles (extenuating circumstances) 4. Value Principle 1 - Ability For me this means; ability to race at the Distance ability to race in the Class ability to race on the Surface I use the RP for this and look through the form for each runner. Principle 2 - Form and Condition If you have a capable horse, it needs to be capable NOW! To win this race. To work this out I look at; most recent finishing positions horses age official mark Again a lot of that comes from the RP but I also use stats from HRB. Mainly Impact Values again. Principle 3 - Angles (extenuating circumstances) IMHO two underused angles are draw and pace. Draw I keep a spreadsheet with the draw at each course split into fours. Example; Warwick 6F Stalls 1-4: 1.49 Stalls 5-8: 0.91 Stalls 9-12: 0.53 The number is an impact value. If no draw bias existed then the impact value for all stalls would be 1.00. As can be seen from the example a bias does exist and a horse drawn in stalls 9-12 will win about half as often (0.53, 53%) as would be expected if the course was fair. Pace For each horse in a race I record its preferred early pace. Meaning the position it takes up in the first few furlongs of the race. Tactics include: Leader, Press Leader, Track Leaders, Chase Leaders, Held Up Midfield, Held Up Rear, Dwelt Then I draw a diagram of how the horses will be positioned. If I find there are a lot of 'pace' horses then 'off-pace' horses will have the advantage and vice versa. Principle 4 - Value When I make my selections I do not consider the price. I try not to look at any odds when I'm working out a race. I only see the odds when I'm putting the bet on. The fact that these races are all Handicaps means that good prices are available in the majority of races. When I use stats I use the A/E stat to ensure I'm getting value. I bet 1 point on each and every selection. I don't bet each-way. The Posting of Selections Reasoning I intend to post up the selections without reasoning. I hope that I have explained enough about the process in this post. As you can understand, since I look at each runner in detail, a full explanation would take a long time to write and I most likely would not be able to articulate a lot of my reasoning. Frequency If suitable racing is available on the day then I tend to play one race only. If not suitable racing is on then there is no bet. Selections & Staking I usually pick 3 selections per race and back them as follows; 1 point Win on each horse 1 point split over a Combination Forecast (so 1/6th of a point per line) 1 point split over a Combination Tricast (so 1/6th of a point per line) I know this is a bit wacky but I've made over 300 points since October 2011. Odds 11/1 and Below = BOG 12/1 and Above = Betfair SP Fingers Crossed :hope :)

[Cowan]

Re: Cowans' Specialisation - Sprints Leicester 4.05 President Lincoln - BFSP Haftohaf - 4.50 Music In The Rain - 5.00