Flat Racing 2nd April

[chris34]

2.00 Kempton Typically ordinary Tuesday afternoon handicap on the polytrack with all the usual suspects in the lineup. Chella Thriller is perhaps the least exposed, she won 2 handicaps around new year at Lingfield, ran just a respectable race last time out after a short break off new mark. Dropped a 1lb since that effort which allows her back into a 0-60 handicap atleast but does need to step up again on that effort. Legal Legacy is 15lb below his last winning mark but he has shown very little recently to make him of interest yet. Angelena Ballerina won last time out off a mark of 50, a rise of 3lb fair and still well treated on best form and can string wins together but on what she has shown this winter she needs to step up again in a stronger race. Lytham has been in great form this winter never the easiest to win with but does have a reasonable strike rate, the harder they go the better. Received a slight bump last time out when he was gathering momentum and did finish well, up yet another 2lb and now 7lb higher than last win and looking just about high enough in the weights. I am gonna take a risk on Having A Ball who is very similar to Lytham, knows his way round here backwards and 5 of his 6 wins have come at this venue. Been in good form recently and been unlucky last twice wide draw and meeting trouble last time out. Should get a race run to suit and a mark of 60 is within his reach at his best which he looks to be at the moment. 2pt win Having A Ball 9/2 bet365 2.50 Southwell Med Sea looks plenty high enough in the weights at present and requires a career best effort now. Stentorian has been going close last twice, his hold up style not guaranteed to suit around here although a small field will help if they go a good enough gallop. This mark is starting to look high enough and unless this surface brings about more improvement unlikely to win today. Sommersturm has been going well since joining this yard but 3 previous tries here have been massively below par and looked held last time out aswell off new mark suggests looking elsewhere. Discay doesn’t look completely straightforward and I am surprised to not see some headgear tried, only 3lb higher for winning over this course over 2f less 2 starts back. Not sure step up in trip ideal and remains one to tread carefully with. Low Key has shown nothing to date on these shores. Calculating might prove hard to beat having returned to form in style last time out over slightly further in a more competitive handicap. Effectively only 4lb higher under penalty. He is a regular around here with 6 wins here and this trip absolutely fine too. Has won off much much higher marks in the past. 2pt win Calculating 9/4 pp 5.20 Southwell Not a race to spend too much time on. Beauchamp Xerxes bounced back to form in an extremely weak race, the 2^nd Amber Moon does nothing to advertise that form but he could only beat what was infront of him and he did it with ease. He was a listed winner at his best and placed in handicaps off marks as high as 100, overall strike rate a worry but his class may prevail in another weak race but there is also a question mark on surface. Sofias Number One is a very modest horse but has won twice here and was a winner last time out at Wolverhampton and he does appear to have atleast comeback from a break in good form. 6lb rise in the weights looks enough to stop him tho. Tony Hollis has run well here in the past but record fresh nothing special and finished last year in on a downer. Bonny Prince Blue is a regular here but often slowly away and gets going too late means the losing run continues to mount up. In a weak race a chance has to be given to Bentley to bounce back to form after a disappointing run last time out. He had previously run 2 great races over this course over this trip and 7f before running below par at Wolverhampton. A return to this surface a positive and Tart takes back over from another apprentice. His last winning mark was 65 and now runs off 52 so dangerous to dismiss in a weak race in which he looks overpriced. 1pt e/w Bentley 10/1 bet365

[cpo]

Re: Flat Racing 2nd April Iv had a little go at Saint Irene in the first at Kempton. I thought she ran an encouraging race back from a break over CD last time out behind Scary Movie. She was sent off 50/1 that day but what have got much closer with a clear run on the inside. Much will depend on luck in running but to me she finished full of running that day and could have more to give on the all weather. She improved last year to win in August and October off marks of 51 and 57. She races today off 55 with the jockey taking off 7lbs. She is certainly not guaranteed to back that promising run up here but if she does she could go well at a decent price. The CD winners in the field look solid but I am going to take a chance on this one at 16/1.