Flat Racing - Wednesday 27th March

[robertob]

15.10 Southwell: Caldercruix @ 9/4 Bet365 - 5pts win He ran a huge race last Saturday over course and distance in a hugely competitive affair. He had the widest draw to overcome there and had to turn widest of all for home as a result, which isn't easy as you can lose easily a bit of momentum in these situations. He really fought on gamely to finish a very strong third to some excellent Southwell horses and as he has a very good record as this track and also presenting himself in excellent form recently, winning his penultimate start, which came also at this track, you'd assume he's a big chance next time out. Connections look to have found a suitable race, just a few days later here tomorrow, as Caldercruix remains on the same handicap mark and drops in class. He should prove too good for this lot here I think. 19.20 Wolverhampton: Spark Of Genius @ 5/2 Paddy Power - 4pts win Usually I don't like horses that made a big impression on the fibresand while appearing on the conventional All-Weather the next time, like it is the case with Spark Of Genius. She tried the fibresand for the first time two weeks ago and in the early parts of the race it looked as if she wouldn't get on with it. She was badly outpaced from the start on, loosing loads of ground and was then taken wide by the jockey. Spark Of Genius improved her position more and more however and was finally back in contention with the field turning for home. She really powered home in the closing stages, even looking a real threat for the win, until she got a bit tired in the final furlong and finished 3rd eventually. This was a huge performance but the handicapper dropped her 1lb, probably due to her modest looking performances on Wolverhampton before. According to this most resent performance she looks in fantastic shape though and with promising WT Davies booked for the ride, who claims very valuable 5lb, I think Spark Of Genius could be very hard to beat in a race where the rest of the field looks rather exposed.

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing - Wednesday 27th March 3.00 Lingfield Not too many of these come into this in much form and plenty have something to prove. Should be run at a good clip given theres plenty of front and prominent runners in the field. Johnny Splash is a moody sort that can often run a stinker and did so last time out off a 3lb higher mark for winning a CD handicap finding nothing off the bridle and he comes with risks. Green Earth slightly caught the eye on first run of season last time out but that was over a mile and that has always looked his trip so strange move dropping him back to 6f, something to prove. Artful Lady has been generally consistent this winter but continues to creep up the weights, up a further 3lb for a 2^nd last time out so requires a career best but not without a chance although soft lead unlikely. Loyal Royal should be suited to the way this race may unfold, he often travels well out the back but hasn’t always found as much as seems likely this winter. Losing run nearly upto 2 years now and plenty of runs and despite some leniency from handicapper hes hard to fancy. Sweet Ovation is another hard to fancy on most recent runs and although handicapper being very generous but really needs to show more. Sherjawy has a very similar profile to Loyal Royal and Sweet Ovation in that has won for a long time but slipped a long way in the weights but unlike those 2 has run a few promising runs this winter but still looks to need more. Catflap is perhas the least exposed in a handicap full of sorts with nothing to hide. Can often race fairly keenly, slow leaving stalls in first time cheekpieces last time out but raced slightly less with the choke out and ran on strongly over 5f, this return to 6f defenetily a positive and if the cheekpieces work again this race should be run to suit. 1pt win Catflap 11/2 vc 3.10 Southwell Caledonia Prince is 5 from 10 around here and had picked up his progression again returned to this surface this spring, but was held in a stronger race last time out off a 3lb lower mark this race looks stronger again and a career best effort requires a lot more in this field. Our Ivor had a busy spell racking up a hatrick on this surface, perhaps busy spell caught up with him last time out when disappointing off a 8lb lower mark and now 27lb above first winning mark and 14lb above last winning mark. He has been given a rest since that run but does have something to prove now. Caldercruix has good form around 2 from 4, ran a brilliant race behind Dubai Hills at the weekend this perhaps quick enough but anywhere near that form again would see him go very close. For me Kung Hei Fat Choy is very interesting on the back of a much improved effort on testing conditions in the last race of the day at Doncaster after several disappointing efforts lately. 2lb ahead of the handicapper at present and is currently running off his last winning mark he has 2 wins around here so should go close if repeating that Doncaster effort. 2pt win Kunf Hei Fat Choy 5/1 bet365 8.50 Wolverhampton Comeptitive finish to the day, Downton Boy got a soft lead last time out causing a 50/1 shock over this CD, a 7lb rise in the handicap and overall profile make him an unlikely winner here again today. Alluring Star is another that carries an extremely patchy profile but wasn’t beaten far on seasonal reappearance last time out and if building on that would have a chance but not the obvious sort to do so. This trip looks to stretch Harvest Mist. Spirit Of Gondree is a tricky customer and although running to a reasonable level he just seems to get going all to late no matter how hard they go and just isn’t very likeable. Yard have finally had a winner but remain quiet. Lieutenant Dan comes here under a penalty having won over a mile at Lingfield, slight concern he has never shown much form over this slightly extended trip slight stamina concern. But if seeing the trip out he is progressing and hard to rule out another good effort. I am going to keep faith with John Potts who has run 3 solid races, beaten by Downton Boy last time out when given him to much rein in front gets a 7lb turnaround in the weights and he is much more reliable than most. All 6 of his wins have come around here and remains dangerously well handicapped on his best form. Also worth noting Harrison has ridden him to 5 of those 6 victories and is booked for the ride today. 2pt win John Potts 4/1 VC