Flat Racing 19th March

[chris34]

4.10 Wolverhampton This is an extremely weak affair. Silver Panther has shown very little on the flat and he runs 12lb out of the handicap and has failed to beat all but 2 on 8 starts needs to improve out of recognition. Sassi Sioux is another making handicap debut having shown next to nothing in maiden, hard to recommend. Chiks Dream has shown bits and pieces of form to give him a slim chance but does remain winless from 17 tries and improved effort last time out may look to flatter him some what. He may get a soft lead in this depending on what those at the bottom of the weights do. Dansili Dutch has totally lost the plot having shown reasonable level of form in the summer and short break didn’t appear to have desired affect last time out a lot to prove. Kyle Of Bute last won over CD in June off a mark of 60 but is another that quickly went the wrong way since now running off 53 is capable of taking advantage and slightly better than result suggests last couple of times and not beaten far gives him more of a chance than most but still needs to step up. Nonaynever made stable debut 10 days ago over slightly shorter trip around here didn’t show much that day, did show some ability on a previous run for Noseda 479 days ago. Needs to prove he still has ability and this might just be quick enough return just 10 days later. One to watch but yard also quiet. Spirit Of Gondree hasn’t been beaten far recently and caught the eye finishing well last time out. He can be a tricky customer and needs things to fall right. Yard also on a rotten run and cannot find a winner to break their duck at the moment. Apache Glory hasn’t won since July 2011, last win coming off 78 at Leicester. Little bit in and out since that win but mark has slipped a long way running off 59 now and has shown more signs of life recently. First time cheekpieces appeared to bring about some improvement aswell last time out finishing extremely well off a slow pace a better run race would suit him much better if the cheekpieces continue to work dangerous to dismiss in this weak race. 2pt win Apache Glory 7/2 bet365 5.20 Southwell The flying 5 at Southwell one of the best sights over the winter! Putin has had a typically busy winter like many for this yard, did manage a win off a 5lb lower mark at Lingfield over 6f in January shown bits and pieces since but totally fluffed start last time out and failed to beat a rival so does need to bounce back but doesn handle surface. Chosen One makes return from winter break on a winning mark but never totally convinced this surface is suitable and likely to need first run since September. Chateau Lola is another that is hard to predict typically at this level, but when last seen over CD she was winning off a 3lb lower mark, managed to get back in front again off a similar mark before appearing to find this revised mark a stumbling block last time out and possible she is likely too again unless surface offers more. Divertimenti finally took advantage of a basement mark last time out at Wolves handicapper took a harsh view of that form putting him back up 7lb, but anywhere near his best he remains dangerously well handicapped. Does have form on the surface earlier in career although most recent efforts here not so good and given overall profile at the moment wouldn’t be a certain thing to follow up. Thorpe Bay has quickly gone the wrong way but has changed yards since last seen and Appleby yard have a very good record with runners here and this one does already have winning form on surface so one to watch closely in the market. In a pretty wide open affair might be worth taking a chance on Tenancy off a basement mark. He showed he still had plenty of speed when lying up with the pace over 7f last time out over this course, does have 3 wins over this trip and has won 4 time around here. Last chance he got the opportunity to race off a basement mark he took advantage be no surprise to see him run a big race. 1pt win Tenancy 10/1 pp

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing 19th March 16.20 Southwell: Sewn Up @ 10/1 Paddy Power - 1pt win He looks a well exposed animal in the grip of the handicapper but there are a few facts I like and therefore think it's a worth a small try. He appears for the first time on the Southwell fibresand and of course there is always a chance that he doesn't like it. But it also could be the other way around, bringing some further improvement out. I particularly liked his recent performance just a few days ago at Wolverhampton when he travelled like a dream, approaching the final furlong on the bridle just to get badly hampered then. He picked up again eventually, too late though. This was a nice performance nonetheless and showed he's certainly in good nick. Kirby is an interesting jockey booking, so I feel Sewn Up could easily outran his price. 16.50 Southwell: Follow The Flag @ 8/1 Paddy Power - 2pts win Think the old warrior should have a decent chance in this race tomorrow. It looks a poor enough affair this race but Follow The Flag looks to hold his form well while racing over trips too short for him at this stage of his career, still giving a good account nonetheless. It is his third last performance actually which booked him a place in my notebook, one month ago here at Southwell over 1m, when he was badly outpaced early on and lost loads of ground as a result of that. He was far behind the leading trio turning for home but ran on very strongly finishing even 2nd in the end. I wanted to see him back up in trip actually before getting involved with him so I easily ignore the last two races over 1m and am happy to see him now up in trip back over 11f, a distance he's 1/2 here at Southwell. Think he has a better chance in this race over this CD than reflected in his price at the moment.