axbx Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Hello guys! I came up with a system based on shots ratio. I try to predict the shots ratio for each team and then make my decision by the difference. For example: Home team's average shots ratio against top table opponents is 1,3 at home. Away team's average shots ratio at away is 0,8 against smaller teams. The difference is +0,5, and the actual probabilities for +0,5 are the following: Home win: 42,5%, Draw: 26,7%, Away: 30,7%. We make decision based on the odds offered. (The probabilities are based on past data) I start with a bank of 100 points, and will be flat betting 1 point. There is no restriction to leagues. Backtesting went fine, hope I can produce some results :ok Advices and opinions are welcome. Cheers, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
axbx Posted March 16, 2013 Author Share Posted March 16, 2013 Re: Seeking value in shots ratio First picks: English Premier League: Everton - Man City: DNB: 2,8 @ MarathonBet Aston Villa - QPR: 1x2: 3,3 @ Interwetten Southampton - Liverpool: 1x2: 4,1 @ Betvictor Stoke City - West Brom: 1x2: 2,6 @ Betvictor Chelsea - West Ham: DNB: 8,1 @ MarathonBet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VictorG Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Re: Seeking value in shots ratio Hi, I like your idea to base on the shot ratio. I've recently read some nice articles about total shot ratio and how is that relevant to a team's final position after one season. A larger shot ratio means a larger chance that a team will finish in the first places. This can be useful because at some point, some team will under-perform relative to their total shot ratio and others are overachieving. You can read more about using this and other stats here http://jameswgrayson.wordpress.com/2012/07/15/another-post-about-tsr/ Anyway, good luck and I'll follow your system to see how it goes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
axbx Posted March 16, 2013 Author Share Posted March 16, 2013 Re: Seeking value in shots ratio Thanks! I am originally a tennis bettor, and I wanted to make a predicting program based on winners/unforced errors, but I just couldn't find statistics for that so I came up with soccer systems. I should warn everyone, that I have never been successful in football betting, except on the odd/even market. :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TZOGAS Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Re: Seeking value in shots ratio can we use it for under - over that model? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
axbx Posted March 16, 2013 Author Share Posted March 16, 2013 Re: Seeking value in shots ratio Some conference matches: [TABLE=width: 464] [TR] [TD]Ebbsfleet - Southport[/TD] [TD]H[/TD] [TD]1x2[/TD] [TD=align: right]2,75[/TD] [TD] @ Pinnacle[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Hyde - Dartford[/TD] [TD]H[/TD] [TD]1x2[/TD] [TD=align: right]2,60[/TD] [TD] @ Interwetten[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Newport - Macclesfield[/TD] [TD]A[/TD] [TD]1x2[/TD] [TD=align: right]3,80[/TD] [TD] @ Blue Square[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Nuneaton - Lincoln[/TD] [TD]A[/TD] [TD]AH +0,5[/TD] [TD=align: right]2,85[/TD] [TD] @ Bet365[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
axbx Posted March 16, 2013 Author Share Posted March 16, 2013 Re: Seeking value in shots ratio can we use it for under - over that model? I personally think that over/under odds are perfect. I got about the same probabilities based on goal statistics. The best strategy may be to understand the team's approach to the game. How much pressure they apply early in the game, average how many minutes they need for a goal, what are they doing after scoring/conceding, etc. Shots ratio can be useful for that, but using only that won't be enough. It's only my opinion though. If this system flunks, than the over/under may be my next target :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TZOGAS Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Re: Seeking value in shots ratio do you have any selection of under -over..for now?... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
axbx Posted March 16, 2013 Author Share Posted March 16, 2013 Re: Seeking value in shots ratio I don't. Look at Grex's Overs, he has some real good results. :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
axbx Posted March 16, 2013 Author Share Posted March 16, 2013 Re: Seeking value in shots ratio RESULTS: Everton - Man City: DNB: 2,8 @ MarathonBet +1,8 Aston Villa - QPR: 1x2: 3,3 @ Interwetten -1 Southampton - Liverpool: 1x2: 4,1 @ >Betvictor +3,1 Stoke City - West Brom: 1x2: 2,6 @ >Betvictor -1 [TABLE=class: cms_table, width: 464] [TR] [TD]Ebbsfleet - Southport[/TD] [TD]H[/TD] [TD]1x2[/TD] [TD=align: right]2,75[/TD] [TD]+1,75[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Hyde - Dartford[/TD] [TD]H[/TD] [TD]1x2[/TD] [TD=align: right]2,60[/TD] [TD]+1,6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Newport - Macclesfield[/TD] [TD]A[/TD] [TD]1x2[/TD] [TD=align: right]3,80[/TD] [TD]-Voided-[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Nuneaton - Lincoln[/TD] [TD]A[/TD] [TD]AH +0,5[/TD] [TD=align: right]2,85[/TD] [TD]-1 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Pending: Chelsea - West Ham: DNB: 8,1 @ MarathonBet Todays Results: +5,25 points Starting bank: 100 pts New bank: 105,25 pts Strike rate: 57% Yield: 75% Nice start. :notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
axbx Posted March 16, 2013 Author Share Posted March 16, 2013 Re: Seeking value in shots ratio Let's try out Spain and Italy: [TABLE=width: 384] [TR] [TD]Malaga - Espanyol[/TD] [TD]AH -1[/TD] [TD]2,84 @ MarathonBet[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sevilla - Zaragoza[/TD] [TD]DC x2[/TD] [TD]3,1 @ MarathonBet[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sampdoria - Inter[/TD] [TD]1x2[/TD] [TD]3,37 @ Pinnacle Sports[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sampdoria - Inter[/TD] [TD]AH +1[/TD] [TD]6,1 @ Bet365[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Torino - Lazio[/TD] [TD]1x2[/TD] [TD]3,28 @ Pinnacle Sports[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
axbx Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 Re: Seeking value in shots ratio One more: Toulouse - Bordeaux DNB 2,46 @ MarathonBet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
axbx Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 Re: Seeking value in shots ratio Poor decision to leave out Fulham, Stuttgart and Chievo. Results: [TABLE=width: 388] [TR] [TD]Chelsea - West Ham[/TD] [TD]DNB[/TD] [TD=align: right]-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Malaga - Espanyol[/TD] [TD]AH -1[/TD] [TD=align: right]-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sevilla - Zaragoza[/TD] [TD]DC x2[/TD] [TD=align: right]-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sampdoria - Inter[/TD] [TD]1x2[/TD] [TD]Postponed[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sampdoria - Inter[/TD] [TD]AH +1[/TD] [TD]Postponed[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Toulouse - Bordeaux[/TD] [TD]DNB[/TD] [TD]Voided[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Previous Bank: 105,25 pts New bank: 102,25 pts Strike rate: 40% Yield: 22,5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
axbx Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 Re: Seeking value in shots ratio One more for the night: St Etienne - PSG AH0: 2,02 @ Pinnacle Sports Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
axbx Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 Re: Seeking value in shots ratio St Etienne - PSG AH0: 2,02: -Void- Torino - Lazio 1x2: 3,28: -1 New bank: 101,25 pts Strike rate: 36% Yield: 11,4% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
axbx Posted March 19, 2013 Author Share Posted March 19, 2013 Re: Seeking value in shots ratio [TABLE=width: 479] [TR] [TD]Braintree - Woking[/TD] [TD]1x2[/TD] [TD]2,25 @ MarathonBet[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Cambridge Utd - Ebbsfleet[/TD] [TD]AH -1[/TD] [TD]2,57 @ Pinnacle Sports[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dartford - Barrow[/TD] [TD]AH -1[/TD] [TD]2,75 @ Pinnacle Sports[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Macclesfield - Telford[/TD] [TD]AH -1,5[/TD] [TD]2,35 @ BetVictor[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Newport - Kidderminster[/TD] [TD]1x2[/TD] [TD]2,5 @ Betvictor[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Nuneaton - Grimsby[/TD] [TD]1x2[/TD] [TD]1,95 @ MarathonBet[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wrexham - Mansfield[/TD] [TD]AH0[/TD] [TD]2,08 @ Sbobet[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
axbx Posted March 19, 2013 Author Share Posted March 19, 2013 Re: Seeking value in shots ratio nice to see what a missing $ could cause on a spreadsheet. :\ Results: -6 New bank: 95,25 Strike rate: 23% Yield: -28% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
axbx Posted March 27, 2013 Author Share Posted March 27, 2013 Re: Seeking value in shots ratio Southampton - Chelsea 3,8 @ MarathonBet Swansea - Tottenham 2,34 @ Pinnacle Sports Aston Villa - Liverpool 5,13 @ Pinnacle Sports Inter - Juventus 3,55 @ Pinnacle Sports Lazio - Catania DNB 2,9 @ MarathonBet Palermo - AS Roma 2,15 @ BetVictor Chievo - AC Milan DNB 4,05 @ MarathonBet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
axbx Posted April 1, 2013 Author Share Posted April 1, 2013 Re: Seeking value in shots ratio Southampton - Chelsea 3,8 @ MarathonBet +2,8 Swansea - Tottenham 2,34 @ Pinnacle Sports +1,34 Aston Villa - Liverpool 5,13 @ Pinnacle Sports -1 Inter - Juventus 3,55 @ Pinnacle Sports -1 Lazio - Catania DNB 2,9 @ MarathonBet -1 Palermo - AS Roma 2,15 @ >Betvictor -1 Chievo - AC Milan DNB 4,05 @ MarathonBet -1 Results: -0,84 I think my approach is right, but it looks like I should work on this a little more :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecurlyone1 Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Re: Seeking value in shots ratio Don't look like you are a million miles away keep with it I'm sure you will get there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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