Jump racing ~ Thursday 14th March

[Stevet1859]

1:30 Cheltenham: Marito 1pt win 25/1 Betfred & Sire Collonges 1pt win 33/1 Bet365 Dynaste is going to be very hard to beat with possibly only the drying ground the slight doubt. Because he takes such a chunk out of the market, two of the biggest trainers in the game have runners going off at huge prices. Marito's form looks a little better tonight after Lord Windermere's win today and while Marito will need to step up in the same way the RSA winner did, with his trainer in such red hot form he just might. Better ground may help too. Sire Collonges is also a big price for champion trainer Paul Nicholls and he has been off since a poor show behind Our Father here in November. Prior to that though he had put up a fine performance to beat Sea Of Thunder. Because that was so long ago he may have been a little overlooked and comes out second on Racing Post Ratings. The drop back in trip may be for the best too. 2:05 Cheltenham: Catch Me 1pt win 33/1 Sportingbet Catch Me is getting on at eleven and has not not shown any worthwhile form this season. However, he did run second in this race last year after not having the best of runs. Cape Tribulation went on to frank the form and its reasonable to expect that Catch Me will leave this season's form well behind today. J P McManus has done well as an owner in this. And Catch Me could go well at a big price after following a similar pattern as last year. 2:40 Cheltenham: Menorah 1pt win 8/1 & Champion Court 1pt win 15/2 both Coral Both of these go well here and that should stand them in good stead. This trip and better ground is likley to be far more suitable for Menorah than when a distant third to Silviniaco Conti at Newbury. Menorah also seems to do well at this time of year and with Philip Hobbs in decent form, it could all be coming together for a big run here. Champion Court is another who has run well at The Festival in the past. His second in the Jewson last year is good form and he did well to run so well for a long way in the King George and this drop back in trip looks ideal for Champion Court. 3:20 Cheltenham: Wonderful Charm 1pt e/w 25/1 (1/4 123) * With Big Bucks on the sidelines Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh team up with five year old Wonderful Charm. He is an interesting runner as he has had only one run for the champion trainer yet only had to be pushed out to win the Persian War. He has reportedly had a wind operation and he looks likely to stay. He will need to step up from Novice company, however there is a strong chance he might and he is held in high regard by his trainer. * price taken 17/2/13 and posted in personal thread #1561 4:40 Cheltenham: Galaxy Rock 1pt win 14/1 William Hill & Harry The Viking 1pt win 20/1 Bet365 Galaxy Rock has run well here before winning twice and he was a very game second to Balthazar King back in October. Galaxy Rock has been kept away from the course while there has been heavy going and its reasonable to assume The Festival where he goes so well has been the target. Only five pounds higher than his last win Galaxy Rock could enhance Jonjo O'Neill's record in staying chases. Harry the Viking ran well here last season too, pushing Teaforthree all the way to the line in the National Hunt Chase. Harry the Viking did not have a great run in the Hennessy and while there may be one eye on the Grand National he could go well here off what looks a fair mark. 5:15 Cheltenham: Sacree Tiepy 1pt e/w 25/1 (1/4 123) Betfred * Sacree Tiepy looks very interesting off a light weight here. He travels over from France after running well in several cross country chases at Pau. Its hard (impossible) to weigh up the form however the experience of these unusual courses will stand Sacree Tiepy in good stead and the fact he has travelled over from France makes him worth chancing at the price. * price taken 9/3/13 and posted in personal thread #1595

[beaker1]

Re: Jump racing ~ Thursday 14th March Jewson Novices’ Chase - cheltenham 1:30 Just two years to work off so no real trends as yet. Of the eight top-four finishers so far, six had run in at a handicap at last season’s Festival and all eight had shown a decent level of Cheltenham form so Desert Cry (9th in the County Hurdle), Molotof (13th in the Martin Pipe), Changing Times (pulled up in the Martin Pipe), Third Intention (8th in Coral Cup) and Argocat (9th in the Fred Winter) qualify on the first score though, as you can seen, none exactly shone at this meeting 12 months ago. Of those with general Cheltenham form, Aupcharlie was third in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper two years, Captain Conan won the Grade 2 November Novices’ Chase at The Open Meeting, Dynaste won the 2m4f novice chase at the same meeting, Module won a handicap hurdle on his British debut and Sire Collonges won a novice chase at the October Meeting. That leaves Marito and Texas Jack on the sidelines having not run at Cheltenham before. Benefficient has run here before but not well and not in a handicap either when his trainer felt he failed to handle the course in last season’s Neptune (10th) and is running as his large enthusiastic group of owners are keen to run at the Festival. He is a two-time Grade 1 winner however and a first-time hood has been applied. Both winners were Irish-trained and they are four-handed with Argocat, Texas Jack, Marito and Benefficient attempting to emulate Sir Des Champs and Noble Prince. Just using other general novice chase stats at the Festival to help us a little further, only three of the last 50 combined runnings of the Arkle and RSA have been won by a horse that finished outside the first two which would be against Changing Times and Marito. Short List MODULE DYNASTE ARGOCAT Conclusion Very few trends to go on. As all eight top-four finishers had good Cheltenham form, I will concentrate on those at the expense of those that ran in a handicap at last season’s Festival but didn’t exactly shine. The Tom George-trained MODULE won at Cheltenham on his British debut in a handicap hurdle coming over from France but an injury forced him out of the Festival. He has impressed in three runs over fences so far and looks to have the speed for 2m and the stamina for 3m so this trip can be ideal. DYNASTE appeals more than Captain Conan at this trip. Both have impressed in novice chases here at The Open Meeting but Dynaste really impressed over this trip back in November whereas Captain Conan won over 2m and then made very hard work of beating Third Intention when upped to this kind of distance who he twice easily beaten over 2m which suggests this distance is not his optimum and he is only running here as the stable had Simonsig for the Arkle. ARGOCAT appeals most of the Irish. We need at least one Irish horse as they have won both runnings of the Jewson. Although ninth of 24 in the Fred Winter, he ran well for a long way and has been trained for this race since winning over Christmas. Pertemps Final - cheltenham 2:05 Of all the handicaps at the Festival, this has been the one where followers have trends have struggled in of late (not helped by the last nine winners all started at double-figure SPs so don’t be afraid to chance some tasty-priced contenders) so hopefully better luck this time. There are no five-year-olds declared to oppose this year so the main negative pattern is that horses rated higher than 142 have been beaten in each of the last 12 years so those towards to the top of the handicap have struggled big time since the turn of the century. Horses rated over 142 are the top six in the weights; Fair Along, Junior, Catch Me, Shutthefrontdoor, First Fandango and Close House. The surprising positive stat for a race many think is a plotter’s paradise (but not anymore) is that over half of the last 18 winners (9 of 17) won last time out which is a tick for the likes of Sam Winner (if you include his Jumpers Bumper), Ely Brown and Top Of The Range in addition to Fair Along, Shutthefrontdoor and Close House but that latter trio have the official ratings stats against them. Top Of The Range would be more interesting if Nicky Henderson’s record in this race didn’t read 0-22. Equally surprising is how well the oldies have fared with horses aged 8+ winning six of the last seven runnings. Qualifiers on that score are Bouggler, Bakbenscher, Pateese, American Spin, Berties Dream. Stonemaster, Jetson, Ely Brown, American Trilogy and Hada Men (though they wouldn’t have many other positives to go with it) as well as the top three in the weights who you know I am already against. The Irish haven’t won for seven years but have won five times in total and have gone close of late with the runner-up for the last three years and there representatives this time are Catch Me, Action Master, Berties Dream, Stonemaster and Jetson. All five of their winners qualified via the Leopardstown route which featured Stonemaster (3rd), Jetson (6th) and Catch Me (20th) The best British qualifiers have been at Cheltenham in October which was won by Action Master (American Spin was back in 7th) and Haydock in February in which Bouggler finished third. The Wincanton qualifier won by Close House is the only long-standing qualifier never to have featured the winner of the Final (American Trilogy was back in fourth). Of the home team, Jonjo O’Neill has trained three winners and runs Holywell and Shutthefrontdoor. Two of those were owned by J P McManus (who has also had three winners in total) and his colours are represented by Catch Me and Shutthefrontdoor. Short List ELY BROWN SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR ACTION MASTER SAM WINNER HOLYWELL Conclusion ELY BROWN has already won of the qualifiers so would be a very worthy winner and entering this race as a last-time-out winner and being of an older vintage (8+), he is the only horse to meet those two stats so he makes the short list. Although he is higher in the weights than ideal (though only just by 2lbs), the fact that SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR is a last-time-out winner representing a trainer and owner who have won this race three times means he still makes the short list. I make the case in The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide that we should use the 142 ratings barrier only if we want to be ruthless arguing that 150+ is the real killer, so as he is strong on other trends, I can let the fact go that he is just 2lbs over the 142 mark. Having won the Cheltenham Qualifier which has the best record of all the qualifiers for the final ACTION MASTER interests me, especially coming off a 77-day absence. He has been beaten twice since but that wouldn’t be bother me if they decided this Final was the plan after that impressive victory here in October. We need another last-time-out winner given their fine record and SAM WINNER has to make any short list as he could easily be thrown in off a handicap mark of 140. For a horse that found 2m1f way too short in the Triumph Hurdle to finish just behind mid-160s horses like Zarkandar and Grandouet tells us he could have a lot in hand of the Handicapper and especially as he is expected to improve again for a step up to three miles. Jonjo O’Neill also runs HOLYWELL who is also respected. Runner-up in all four starts this season, he now runs in first-time blinkers which stats say isn’t always a plus but he is lazy horse that hits flat spots so in my view he needs headgear to improve him and he has a shot at giving his trainer a fourth winner of this handicap. Ryanair Chase - cheltenham 2:40 Course form has been critical so far with seven of the eight winners (and six of the runners-up) having won at Cheltenham before so that would count against For Non Stop who has run good races at the last two Festivals (fell at last when in second in the Coral Cup and third in the Jewson). Since the upgrade to Grade 1 status, four of the five winners had already won a Grade 1 race, four of five winners were rated 162+ and horses with solid form over three miles have started taking over from the 2½ mile specialists that contested the big early-season handicaps over that trip at the course before Christmas. Non Grade 1 winners are Champion Court, For Non Stop and Ghizao. The same three horses are also rated under 162 and wouldn’t be at their best at three miles either so are hard for me to fancy. Menorah struggled on his only attempt at three miles and although he won the Peterborough Chase, the winner of that race has a woeful record here (only one of the seven winners to run here has even placed). The other stat to note since this race became a Grade 1 is the four of the five winners contested the King George VI Chase which is where Champion Chase does pick up a tick as he finished a non-staying fourth. The big worry, however, is he had a very hard race that day and was beaten at odds-on in a three-runner graduation chase next time which suggest that Kempton run (where he lead turning for home having set a strong gallop) has left its mark. Cue Card finished one place behind in fifth also failing to stay in the conditions. Pulled up was Riverside Theatre who was found to be suffering from ulcers but is reportedly over then now. Only one winner in eight years has started at bigger than 6/1 and the big southern yards have dominated with two winners for Henderson (Riverside Theatre), O’Neill (Albertas Run) and Nicholls (Ghizao). No wins yet for the Irish from 23 runners but First Lieutenant would arguably be their best ever chance. Riverside Theatre beat Albertas Run into second last year and the previous season’s renewal has been a big factor with three runners-up going one place better the previous year as well as a back-to-back Ryanair winner. Another notable guide is the Ascot Chase won by Cue Card as three of the eight Ryanair winners finished in the first three in that Grade 1 race last month. Short List CUE CARD RIVERSIDE THEATRE ALBERTAS RUN Conclusion First Lieutenant has the strongest form of these this season alongside Cue Card and has a big chance of being Ireland’s first Ryanair winner in the race his owner sponsors and also missing the Gold Cup for this for which he was fifth favourite. The poor showing of the Irish so far means he can’t be a trends-based selection though. CUE CARD certainly can though as he will start at under 6/1, he has a good Festival record (142), he ran in the best guide (the King George) and won the second-best guide (of races run during the current season) when winning the Ascot Chase. It’s a case with him whether his natural exuberance can be curtailed to be fully effective at the trip as horses with proven ability over 3m have fared best since this was a Grade 1. Last season’s Ryanair has featured four of the last seven winners so the 2012 1-2 of Riverside Theatre and Albertas Run also make the short list. RIVERSIDE THEATRE was pulled up in the King George (4 of the last 5 Ryanair winners ran in that race) and the smaller field this year could see him handle the hustle and bustle of the race better as he was never going in last year’s race but still won. Trained by Nicky Henderson who is chasing a third win in this race, he has become a little bit forgotten. Backing 12-year-olds first time out at the Festival is not normal practice but I wouldn’t knock ALBERTAS RUN’s chances of going close again. A three-time Festival winner including two wins and a second in this race, he finds his form when the sun comes out and the ground dries up and a smaller field will also suit him as he likes to race prominently. With the dead eight declared, he makes most each-way appeal of those likely to start at above 6/1 (7 of the 8 winners started at no bigger) with ground turning more in his favour. Ladbrokes World Hurdle - cheltenham 3:20 Last season’s Ladbrokes World Hurdle has been the best place to start in recent seasons with six of the last ten winners having contested the race 12 months earlier. However, there is no multiple previous winner like Inglis Drever or Big Buck’s so that is a trend that I would be very sceptical about following. If you fancy last year’s fifth, Oscar Whisky, do note that the last nine winners to have run in the previous season’s World Hurdle either won or finished second 12 months earlier. The last winner to run in the previous season’s renewal that failed to occupy one of the top two positions back in 1981. Others returning from another crack from last year’s renewal are Smad Place (3rd), Cross Kennon (7th) and So Young (9th). Being the only Grade 1 staying hurdle to take place over three miles before the Festival in Britain or Ireland, it is only natural that the Long Walk Hurdle remains top of the shop as a World Hurdle guide. Going back to and including 1993, over half of World Hurdle winners (10 from 19) contested Ascot’s premier hurdle race won this season by Reve De Sivola who then also won the other notable guide when taking the Rewards4Racing Cleeve Hurdle. Going back to and including 2007, seven of the 12 horses to finish in the first two in the World Hurdle prepped in the Cleeve which saw Reve De Sivola just fend off Oscar Whisky. Remarkably, no horse stepping up in trip having contested the Champion Hurdle in a previous season has won for 21 years. Peddlers Cross and Oscar Whisky finished second and third behind Hurricane Fly in the 2011 Champion Hurdle so they would be creating a little bit of history if successful. As would Zaidpour who was eighth in last year’s Champion Hurdle and Solwhit who sixth in the Champion Hurdle three years ago. Punters endured a sticky patch between 1997 and 1999 when Karshi, Princeful and Anzum caused 20/1, 16/1 and 40/1 upsets respectively but, since then, it has been the leading fancies all the way as the last 12 winners could be all be found in the first four in the betting (11 of those started in the first three in the market) and none returning at a bigger starting price than 8/1. It is remarkable to think that the Irish have failed to win this race since 1995 having won eight of the previous 24 runnings. They have had a number of runners-up including Voler La Vedette last year and connections of Bog Warrior and Solwhit will be hoping to put that record straight this season. Willie Mullins also runs Zaidpour and So Young but they have it to do. If you fancy a horse that has something to prove in terms of recent wellbeing then you might want to think again as the last 25 winners all finished in the first four last time out. Get Me Out Of Here may have finished second at the last three Festivals but he enters this race off two poor runs, albeit on testing ground that he dislikes. The ground is coming back in his favour. Oscara Dara impressed in the Lanzarote Hurdle but then disappointed in the Welsh Champion Hurdle. Cloudy Spirit also fails this stat but is hopelessly out of his depth being rated 130 which is the minimum to be allowed to run in the race. Not only that, the last 11 winners had failed to finish out the first two on all their starts earlier in the season so that is a cross against Celestial Halo and Cross Kennon. No five-year-old has ever been successful which is the doubt over Wonderful Charm (plus a rating of just 149 some 18lbs below Oscar Whisky and Reve De Sivola), and, believe it or not, just one front runner (Limestone Lad) has held on for a place since 1996 re-affirming just how hard it is to make the running over hurdles at Cheltenham and especially in staying events and even more so on the stiffer New Course with just two flights of hurdles in the last three-quarters of a mile which is not ideal for Bog Warrior if he chooses to make it though Cross Kennon and Celestial Halo could take him on. Short List REVE DE SIVOLA GET ME OUT OF HERE SMAD PLACE Conclusion Having won the two most notable trials REVE DE SIVOLA has to be the main trends pick. He is also the right kind of age, is the strongest stayer in the race, the joint top-rated horse in the race and is a two-time course winner and a two-time placed horse at the Cheltenham Festival. He is going to be very hard to kick out of the first three and is taken to outstay Oscar Whisky and Peddlers Cross who are attempting to be the first winner to have run in a Champion Hurdle for 21 years. Every other horse has at least one negative pattern to overcome so it’s a question of looking for a contender with more dubious trends against them and that would be GET ME OUT OF HERE who failed to place last time out. As reasoned earlier, however, that would have been on heavy ground he detested (plus over an inadequate 2m) but he comes to life at Cheltenham in March finishing second in the Supreme, Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle and Coral Cup in the last three years and he looks to have trained with the spring in mind again. His trainer has won the race before with Iris’s Gift so knows what is required and the ground is quickening up all the time so he makes each-way appeal. SMAD PLACE gets the final short list berth for another trainer that knows what it takes to win this race (My Way de Solzen). He only fails on not having finished in the first two in last year’s race but he was third, and that third placing was when only a five-year-old so the run can be marked up in that respect as it is a hard race for five-year-olds having never won it. With another year on his back, he is also interesting and is reportedly only just coming right for the first time this season having not run since finishing second in the best trial. He also makes each-way at double-figure odds. Byrne Group Plate - cheltenham 4:00 Given that just two of the last 25 winners ran off handicap marks of higher than 141, this has to be the statistical starting point. Just to underline this further, over the last three years, eight of the nine horses to finish in the first three could be found in the bottom seven in the handicap. On that basis, I have to gloss over the 142+ horses which are the top 13 in the weights (so over half the field). The weight-carried stats are equally compelling with 16 of the last 18 winners saddled with no more than 11st including the 1-2-3 for the last four seasons. If the 157-rated Hunt Ball catches your imagination despite these stats, also consider that horses a total of 25 horses rated 150+ since 1990 have chanced their luck without success with only four placing. Other 150+ rated horses are Poquelin and Calgary Bay. A seventh success since 1999 in the Plate for French-breds last season having missed out in the two previous years after Something Wells and Ping Pong Sivola gave them (and Venetia Williams) a 1-2 in 2009. It is also worth remembering that they were responsible for the runner-up on four of the six occasions they missed out so they are over-performing in a major way when we consider that they are usually outnumbered to the region of around 3:1. French-bred declarations are Poquelin, Walkon, Zaynar, Vino Griego, Hector’s Choice, Sweet My Lord, Giorgio Quercus, Domtaline, Kapga De Cerisy, Divers and Tartak. With regards to Venetia Williams, her record of two wins and five places from 13 runners can not be ignored and she runs Kapga De Cerisy and Carrickboy. Nicky Henderson’s contenders are also well worth a second look having won consecutive runnings in 2005 and 2006 in addition to back-to-back wins for The Tsarevich in 1985/86 and he lets Giorgio Quercus? take its chance. Paul Nicholls, on the other hand, has not had much luck with just two of his 22 runners hitting the frame and he runs Poquelin. Only one Irish-trained winner since 1951 is not the kind of statistic you want to be staring you at the face if you are drawn to any of any Irish entry this season which are Sweet My Lord and Casey Top. The latter finished fourth in the Paddy Power Gold Cup (not run since) a race that many will view as being the key guide being the most prestigious handicap chase run during the season over a very similar distance and also taking place at Cheltenham but the last winner of the Plate to contest that prize was Half Free in 1984. Walkon (2nd) though Poquelin, Hunt Ball and Calgary Bay all pulled up. Salut Flo broked a few trends when successful last year. Not only did he become the first winning favourite since 1999 ending an 11-year run of double-figure priced winners but he had only run once over the best part of two years prior to making all so it was a superb training performance by the Pipe team who must now, if they weren’t already, be regarded as the most potent force for Festival handicaps having also won six other handicaps at this meeting over the last five years including this race twice and his father also struck four times in five years. The same owner and trainer are represented by Ballynagour this time and Pipe also runs Matuhi, Shoegazer and Zaynar. A big result for novices three years ago when recording a 1-2 emulating so the winner was emulating three other successful novices since 1995 and it was two novices in The Cockney Mackem and Glam Gerry that chased home Salut Flo last season finishing second and third. Novices to run this time are Theatre Guide (for the stable that won the JLT Handicap Chase on Tuesday), Shoegazer, Vino Griego (though he is a second-season chaser), Cantlow, Sweet My Lord, Domtaline and Kapga De Cerisy Other stats to note are that 18 of the last 21 winners record a top-four finish last time out, 13 of the last 14 winners had run no more than 16 times over fences and 17 of the last 21 winners had run at this meeting in the past though many ran moderate races so I wouldn’t read much into the latter stat. Short List KAPGA DE CERISY DIVERS DOMTALINE GIORGIO QUERCUS BALLYNAGOUR Conclusion With the top 13 in the weights failing in the strong handicap ratings stats (23 of the last 25 winners were rated under 142), I suggest we look at French breds, novices and in-form horses that haven’t been doing the rounds for years for the shortlist. KAPGA DE CERISY tops the short list being a Venetia Williams-trained (two wins and five places from 13 runners), French-bred novice who also happens to be in blinding form winning his last two races including an easy defeat of Fago at Sandown 20 days ago. DIVERS is a former Festival winner (four of those won on Tuesday) who has not had his ground this season but it is coming right for him now and is a French-bred who caught the eye last time out when third over hurdles and has 12 chase starts behind him so is in the prime of his career. Trained by Ferdy Murphy, we all know about how good he is at preparing a horse for Cheltenham Festival handicaps. The only negative with the novice DOMTALINE is Paul Nicholls’ record of two places from 22 runners as he otherwise fits the profile of being a lightly-raced, in-form French bred. I say ‘in form’ (he was last of three last time out) but it was a decent run not beaten far and has a big chance on his short-head second to Carlito Brigante here in a novice chase back in October. Finding a couple more means a little creativity but I include GIORGIO QUERCUS as he only fails on not finishing in the first four last time out (he finished fifth in first time blinkers that didn’t work and they are left off today). He is a French-bred in the right area of the weights trained by a yard who have won this race four times before. The worry is a couple of moderate runs at the course on his last two runs here but he goes well fresh and arrives here off a 104-day break. Given David Pipe has won two of the last three runnings and his father won four renewals in five years, it is safe to assume they target this race. BALLYNAGOUR was super impressive on his British debut and has been given 143 which is only 2lbs over the 141 threshold but he really could have been put up by more than 20lbs as I was there and, I’m not kidding, it could easily have been 35-40 lengths. On that basis 2lbs isn’t going to make a jot of difference so he has to be short list material given the stable profile. Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase - cheltenham 4:40 Being an amateur-riders’ race, jockeyship is vital and it is usually won by one of the most accomplished pilots. This is no better illustrated by the fact that the highest finish any of the ten claiming amateur jockeys could muster in last season’s renewal was seventh following on from the 2011 renewal where the highest finish any of the eight claiming jockeys was only eighth. As for the previous two runnings, four of the first five horses were also ridden by non-claiming amateurs on both occasions. Horses ridden to by claiming amateurs to therefore be wary of are Swing Bill, Saint Are, Problema Tic, Prince Of Pirates, Deal Done, Same Difference, Liberty Counsel, Court By Surprise and Sunny Ledgend. Only four of the last 33 winners were aged seven or younger so that would be a statistical negative for Super Duty, Saint Are, Problema Tic, On Trend, Vesper Bell, Same Difference and Loose Preformer. This has been a race for horses in their prime and it is eight and nine-year-olds that very much hold the best strike rate winning 15 of the last 19 renewals from less than half the total runners. David Pipe has some way to go to emulate his father’s record of three Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir winners but a 1-2 in 2011 was a nice start. The stable’s last three horses to finish first or second arrived off breaks of 267, 75 and 97 days which I believe to be significant regards the Pipe yard as most Festival handicaps are won by horses with a recent run to their name. This season he runs Swing Bill, Problema Tic and No Secrets. Nicky Henderson’s runners have been sparse of late, but he trained the 1-2 in both 2002 and 2005 and also won in 1990. He is represented this season by the J P McManus-owned Prince Of Pirates. Donald McCain is the emerging force having won two of the previous four runnings (and four of his six runners have notched up top-five positions) and he has elected to run his novice, Super Duty, here rather than head for the RSA and has booked the cracked amateur Derek O’Connor. This hasn’t been Paul Nicholls’ race at all however with just one placed horse from 14 starters and he runs Harry The Viking. Despite an excellent collective effort last season where Irish raiders finished second, fourth and fifth from their five challengers, the fact remains that yet another year passed without an Irish-trained Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir success thus we still have to stretch back 30 years to find their last winner. This time they go to war with last year’s runner-up Becauseicouldntsee, Vesper Bell, Deal Done, Romanescu, Liberty Counsel and Sunny Ledgend. Five of the last eight winners contested a handicap chase at Cheltenham earlier in the season. I’m not sure what use that is however as they were five different races but qualifiers are Swing Bill, Saint Are, Harry The Viking, Probelma Tic, Becauseicouldntsee, Galaxy Rock, Deal Done, Bahrain Storm (cross country chase) and Romanescu. Short List NO SECRETS CHARTREUX GALAXY ROCK FRISCO DEPOT ALFIE SHERRIN Conclusion This short list is more of a case of what has survived the negative trends than anything else. NO SECRETS has just sneaked in for David Pipe who has such a good record in this race in his short career and the booking of Katie Walsh catches the eye for this hat-trick chasing nine-year-old novice. CHARTREUX started favourite for a Festival handicap hurdle for Pipe three years ago but is now with Tom George and he makes the short list having survived the negative trends and the booking of Jamie Codd who won this race in 2009 suggests the yard mean business. GALAXY ROCK appeals most of those to have run at Cheltenham earlier in the season. An impressive course winner here last season, he represents last year’s winning stable and looks to have been kept back for this having not run for 117 days and connections have turned to another tip top amateur in J T McNamara. Sam Waley-Cohen is another leading amateur but there was no other jockey his father was going to put up on FRISCO DEPOT and he ran well at Warwick last time out over an inadequate trip when reportedly in need of the run. Five of his previous six races were in pattern races so he should enjoy this drop in class. Relax came close to making the short list but the final slot goes to ALFIE SHERRIN with the ground drying out. The winner of last season’s JLT, Sunnyhillboy for the same owner/trainer also ran in the JLT 12 months before he won the Kim Muir and Alan Berry won this race and has been booked. Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase - cheltenham 5:15 A surprise move from Philip Hobbs not to declare the defending title holder Balthazar King on account of the soft ground given he was second in the conditions race here in November on heavier ground. With no Balthazar King, the British challenge has been seriously weakened so this looks like an eighth win in nine years for the Irish so best concentrate on their leading players. Any Currency is the shortest priced British contender but he has not run in a cross country race before of any description and there has only been one such winner of any cross country race at Cheltenham with a similar profile in the last 27 races here. We have one French-trained runner in the shape of Sacree Tiepy but the fact he is a seven-year-old is a negative as only one of the 75 horses aged under to ever run over this course has won. Enda Bolger has trained the winner or runner-up in this race for 7 of the 8 running so no surprise his Arabella Boy currently heads the market especially having won the P.P. Hogan last time (Uncle Junior behind but 3m is too short for him) as three winners of that race then doubled up here. He unseated his rider in the handicap here in December won by Outlaw Pete which has been the best guide to this race featuring 6 of the 8 winners (reads even better when we consider it was abandoned last year). The winner won very easily from Bostons Angel but his task was aided by the exit of Arabella Boy and Uncle Junior at the same fence. Arabella Boy and Outlaw Pete also contested the La Touche Cup which is Ireland’s other big guide to this race where they both fell when in contention. Uncle Junior won the conditions event here in November where he had Outlaw Pete back in third but Outlaw Pete now meets on him on 17lbs better terms including Josh Halley’s allowance which he wasn’t allowed to claim back in November where it looked like both winner and jockey were enjoying having a first look at the course with a view to the rest of the season. Short List Arabella Boy Outlaw Pete Uncle Junior Conclusion With the Irish dominant, previous form over these fences crucial and the first three in the betting having won 14 of the last 16 cross country races at Cheltenham, I make no apologies whatsoever in short listing the three at the head of the market that fit the profile and I wouldn’t put anyone off perming them in forecasts and tri-casts as fancied horses also usually fill the frame in these races. ARABELLA BOY would probably be just about be the trends pick having won the P.P. Hogan and representing Enda Bolger and having contested the handicap here in December and the La Touche Cup but it does niggle me a little his trainer thinks he is a better horse at Punchestown than Cheltenham. OUTLAW PETE used to be trained by Bolger where he won a cross country race at the Punchestown Festival and was leading and going well in last year’s La Touche Cup until falling five out. Now trained by John Halley, he has certainly not gone backwards since running an eye-catching third to UNCLE JUNIOR here in November and he is now 17lbs better off here and followed up by bolting up by seven lengths in the best guide to this race in December. Both Outlaw Peter and Uncle Junior will love the soft ground.