Jumps Racing - Friday 1st March

[Bathtime For Rupert]

2.10 Doncaster - 2pts win Bollin Tahini @ 16/1 (Bet365) Posted this before her last run (ignore the fact I described "her" as "him"!):

3.00 Folkestone - 2pts win Bollin Tahini @ 10/1 (Bet365) I personally can't fathom the short price on the favourite here who I don't believe will relish a 2m4f slog on heavy ground but I could be wrong. However, I'll let that one win at 7/4 and of the others, it's Neil King's runner who interests me. His first five starts in his career were fairly promising, suggesting he'd win a race or two, but went to pot in two starts over hurdles subsequently (albeit in novice events). It's clear he needs low level handicaps but he didn't really go with much purpose or jump very well in those starts at Taunton and Doncaster. However, off the back of an eight-month absence he looked a great deal more professional at Doncaster last month. He jumped much better and travelled up quite nicely towards the business end of the race. Eventually backed out of it to finish 7th of 13 but was by no means disgraced and shaped so much better. With fitness on his side now, he can go well if building on that. He traded at 8.6 in running which shows how well he went for a long way considering he went off at 33/1 and that proves he ran a lot more positively than before. This is a bad race and he's been dropped 3lbs for that and I expect him to be there or thereabouts if not falling back out of form.

She again ran better than the bare result and just confirmed my suspicions that she'd like better ground a whole lot more. She again travelled quite well and loomed up to be a threat but couldn't pick up and the drop back in trip with this good ground looks ideal. She's been pulled out on soft ground since so has waited for this sort of surface and is 4lbs lower than her latest run. She's gone okay after a short break before and I do think she's capable off a mark of 83 of winning races. I just don't think she's built for a slog and this should be much more her cup of tea. I've been waiting for her to return to the track with more reasonable conditions and I'm hoping I've got her right. Gone with a 2pt bet here and fingers crossed my faith can be justified this afternoon. 2.55 Newbury - 2pts win Sew on Target @ 3/1 (Bet365) Although this one has shortened up a little bit since first show, I think the 9/2 available would have been a steal as I still regard 3/1 as a workable price for a horse who I feel will take all the beating here. Silver Roque might just be in the handicapper's grip, especially after over 100 days off and Colin Tizzard's runner looks to have everything in his favour to go extremely well this afternoon. This gelding is largely consistent and also on the progressive side. His maiden chase win (beat a horse now rated 132 having won off 126 last time) looks strong form and he hasn't really had the chance to build on that since given he's had clear excuses the last twice. Ran well for a long way in a hot Cheltenham handicap over 2m5f before shaping as if needing to come back down in trip. Finished 4th in the end behind Vino Griego and the form of that race has been well franked subsequently. He took his chances in a novice event last time but had plenty to find on figures and wasn't disgraced at 33/1. Returns to handicap company this afternoon with conditions to suit and I think he can defy a mark of 120 here. 3.30 Newbury - 1pt win Shuil Royale @ 11/1 (Hills) David Arbuthnot's horses are going pretty well at the minute and he looks to have a live contender here with a horse who has been nibbled in the market which is a positive sign after a relatively flat run last time out. He never really got into a jumping rhythm and could only plug on into 5th of 12 at Huntingdon but it's plausible that run came too soon after a narrow defeat at Taunton (9 days) and the three weeks or so he's had off since should help him find his spark again here. That run at Taunton would give him a big chance today as he was only beaten a short-head by the progressive Emperor's Choice who won off 126 the other day - the same mark my selection runs off here. Tom Cannon takes 3lbs off his back and has won on the horse before so I think he is fairly treated still. His chase debut prior to Taunton was promising (did fall but was only 3l down when coming to grief at the last) and that came after a summer off the track. Inbetween Taunton and last time he was a solid 5th (outpaced, stayed on) in a jumper's bumper and although his jumping has been criticised due to last time out, he jumped fine at Taunton and I'm hoping he can revert to that sort of form this afternoon. The more galloping track should suit having watched that race and although Sir Frank (backed last time at a good price!) looks well-in, I think he's worth taking on going further up in trip at a more testing track. Definitely at 2/1 anyway. Cannon's mount looks a bit of value to me and I'm hopeful of a big run.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 1st March (Was looking at hurdle mark for Shuil Royale - actually runs off 119.)