Binchy's Stats Adventure

[Binchy]

I have developed this system based on Trainer and Jockey profit/loss (P/L) to level stakes and strike rate over the last 5 years taken from the Racing Post Website. Trainers stats are broken down into three areas (Course, Type of Race and Jockey). This is then broken down further to show the strike rate and P/L in each area (Hurdles, Chase, Bumpers). Jockey stats are shown in the same way, obviously including records for specific trainers. Areas we are interested in are those that have at least 16% strike rate and over +£25 P/L. This should be over at least 20 runs with at least 5 wins (There is a room for a little flexibility). I keep a word document which shows all the areas on interest which is updated monthly. As it would be pretty unrealistic to keep track of all trainers and jockeys, I would estimate I have taken into account the top 50-100 based on this years win to run ratio. I then go through all race cards daily and see if there are any matches. If yes, these will be our selections for the day. Once these have been listed, I then work out how many points to stake on each selection. I will post the stats that back up the selection. I have been running this system for about about 3 weeks now privately and these are the stats so far : Bets - 93 Wins - 20 Staked - 164pts Returned - 273.15pts Profit/Loss : +109.15 Strike Rate - 22% All bets are placed with Bet365 as I find their sight the easiest to use. As all bets are placed the night before racing, there will obviously be some races that are yet to have been priced up. I usually wait until the morning and then take the price available, however for the purposes of this thread, those prices will be taken from betfair. I will start with a bank of 100pts. I will do my best to answer any questions you may have and thank you for any interest you may have. Tomorrows Selections are : 2.20 - Ban - Ciceron 5pts 7/4 (betfair) - Venetia Williams @ Bangor in Chases - (9-38, 24%, +£29.33), Venetia Williams/Liam Treadwell in Chases - (15-52, 29%, +£163) WON +8.75 3.50 - Ban - Turtlethomas 1pt 7/1 - Lawney Hill in Handicap Chases - (27-146, 18%, +£37.85) NOWHERE +7.75 4.10 - Lin - Monsieur Cadou 1pt 6/1 - Tom George/Paddy Brennan in Chases - (66-282, 23%, £37.39) PLACED +6.75 5.20 - Ban - Weigh it Up 2pts 15/2 (betfair) - Phillip Hobbs/Richard Johnson in Bumpers - (24-101, 24%, +£34.27) NOWHERE +4.75 Fingers crossed that we get off to a flying start. Binchy.

[Binchy]

Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure (Jumps) Well at least it wasn't a winnerless start and a small profit to start the thread. Running Stats: Bets : 4 Wins : 1 Staked : 9pts Returned : 13.75pts Profit/Loss : +4.75 Strike Rare : 25% 28/02/2013 2.10 - Tau - Bellflower Boy 2pts 9/2 (Betfair) - Dr Richard Newland in Selling Hurdles - (11-28, 39%, +25.91) 2.30 - Lud - Arthur's Pass 5pts 6/5 - Tom George/Paddy Brennan in Chases - (66-284, 23%, +35.39) 2.40 - Tau - King of Glory 1pt 12/1 (Betfair) - Venetia Williams @ Taunton over Hurdles - (13-52, 25%, +41.60) 3.10 - Tau - Sublime Talent 2pts 9/2 - Evan Williams/Adam Wedge in Chases - (21-110, 19%, +20.25) 3.40 - Tau - Jupiter Rex 4pts 1/2 - Venetia Williams @ Taunton over Hurdles - (13-52, 25%, +41.60) 4.00 - Lud - Kellys Brow 1pt 7/1 - Noel Fehily @ Ludlow over Hurdles - (7-36, 19%, +36.03) 5.10 - Tau - Cuckoo Rock 1pt 5/1 - Gavin Sheehan in Hanicap Hurdles - (14-79, 18%, +34.50)