uknowsit Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Hi all, I am looking for the correct answer to my simple maths query. I'm using half time score data to try and pick games wehre i think there will be > 1.5 goals. So far i've just do simple analysis and to good effect - lumping games into 4 folds. What i need a little help with is my maths. If i see team A has a 43.75% rate of home games going over 1.5 and team B has an away 40% chance - what is the mathematical calculation to assume this game will have >1.5 first hlaf goals? Similarly for the avg goals. If team c has an average of 1.31 first half goals in home games, and team D has average of 1.33 what is the likely goal ratio? Is it as simple as 43.75% + 40% divided by 2 = 41.87%? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Re: Calculation help for half time system 0.4375 * 0.4 = 0.175 or 17.5% Average goals [TABLE=width: 128] [TR] [TD=class: xl64, width: 64]0-0[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, width: 64, align: right]7.14%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl64]1-1[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, align: right]12.43%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl64]1-0[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, align: right]9.35%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl64]2-0[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, align: right]6.12%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl64]2-1[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, align: right]8.14%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl64]0-1[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, align: right]9.49%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl64]0-2[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, align: right]6.31%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl64]1-2[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, align: right]8.27%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uknowsit Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 Re: Calculation help for half time system 0.4375 * 0.4 = 0.175 or 17.5% Is that correct? Say 2 teams both have played out 50% of games "over" and 50% "under" - surely the chance of being ovrt isn't .50 * .50 = 25% - because the chance of being under is the same = not 75% [TABLE=width: 128] [TR] [TD=class: xl64, width: 64][/TD] [TD=class: xl65, width: 64, align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl64][/TD] [TD=class: xl65, align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl64][/TD] [TD=class: xl65, align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl64][/TD] [TD=class: xl65, align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl64][/TD] [TD=class: xl65, align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl64][/TD] [TD=class: xl65, align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl64][/TD] [TD=class: xl65, align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl64][/TD] [TD=class: xl65, align: right][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
methuselah Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Re: Calculation help for half time system You are right uknowsit. Machines method is used when there are 4 possibilities such as the toss of 2 coins when 4 results are possible. The answer is either 35% or your first answer but not sure which. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Re: Calculation help for half time system Is that correct? Say 2 teams both have played out 50% of games "over" and 50% "under" - surely the chance of being ovrt isn't .50 * .50 = 25% - because the chance of being under is the same = not 75% I think you've answered your own question there. My fault I was looking at them as 2 separate events for the answer I gave. If team c has an average of 1.31 first half goals in home games' date= and team D has average of 1.33 what is the likely goal ratio? What do you mean by goal ratio? Ratio is just the relationship between 2 numbers C-home = 1.31 D-away = 1.33 Ratio~ C to D goals = 1.31:1.33 Ratio~ D to C goals= 1.33:1.31 Ratio C to total goals = 1.31:2.64 or 49.62% Ratio D to total goals = 1.33:2.64 or 50.38% Or did you mean the probability of those 2 goal averages being >1.5 You can do this in excel with poisson Which gives a probability of >1.5 to be 38% Or did you mean expected score(see my first post) or something completely different entirely :eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uknowsit Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 Re: Calculation help for half time system Hey thanks for the responses and clarification. Regarding the second point - yes goal ration i meant probability. And that looks a good explanation. Would that poisson calculation look more reliable than the the 1st method? Ie - is taking the avg goals for each team and using the poisson calculation more accurate than taking the % of each teams >1.5 and then dividing by 2? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Re: Calculation help for half time system Would that poisson calculation look more reliable than the the 1st method? Ie - is taking the avg goals for each team and using the poisson calculation more accurate than taking the % of each teams >1.5 and then dividing by 2? I couldn't honestly tell you as I dont play O/U markets so I dont keep any data on them. Best bet would be to keep results on both methods as you go and see which is the best option or check against your past data if you have any. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uknowsit Posted February 28, 2013 Author Share Posted February 28, 2013 Re: Calculation help for half time system Great thanks I will do, just didn;t know if one was statistically more robust (regardless of market) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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