Flat Racing 16th Feb

[chris34]

2.15 Lingfield Typical competitive Blue Square qualifier. Jack My Boy has been in great form this winter not always the easiest to put in front ran a good race last time out finishing 2^nd up 3lb for that race, he is capable off that sort of mark but not sure he always the most likeable horse. Desert Strike is badly out of form like the rest of the Conor Dore yard. Billy Red is likely to burn off from the front but unlikely to get a soft lead, likely to find easier opportunities than this despite him being on a good mark. Duke Of Aricabeau showed nothing after a short break last time out and returns again from another short break has a lot to prove. Welease Bwain is a tricky customer and may have caught the eye of some last time out but he has just been generally frustrating and not always looked the easiest to put his head in front again and this mark just about sums him up at present. Marshall Art won a desperate selling handicap at Southwell 10 days ago a 5lb rise back on polytrack all make you think he has no chance given his general profile. Above The Stars has done little in handicaps recently to suggest he can be competitive in a race like this. Amenable is another that has done little but any money from this yard would be a good sign. My Own Way Home is a bit of a dark horse and has been a market mover, she ran a cracker in the first round of this 4 starts back has pretty much failed to build on that though in recent starts which has to be a worry but has dropped to 1lb below that good run and is 3lb below last winning mark and given the race should be run to suit she may be thereabouts if back to her best. But the other that the race should be run to suit for is Tidals Baby who comes from the Tony Carrol yard who are going through a really good patch at present. He won a CD maiden in November before disappointing at Kempton, but rather caught the eye again at Wolves when meeting a lot of trouble in running, backed that effort up last time out when going very close over CD up 3lb for that and will defenetily need a strong pace over this sort of trip but looks very capable to continue progressing. 3pt win Tidals Baby 7/2 vc 2.50 Lingfield Perhaps the stronger of the two divisions although weakened by the presence of 3 non runners. Proper Charlie looks a very short price given he was soundly beaten on good terms in a claimer last time out and previously well held in 2 handicaps since coming back off a break and really needs to step up on those efforts. Cant consider Restless Bay given awful stable form. Andrew Balding yard not going great guns as you often expect this time of year but going well enough and Black Cadillac ran a solid race last week in one of these last week but is guaranteed such a strong pace this week which would be a worry although on a good mark to get involved should the pace be there. Dark Lane is an obvious pace angle but doesn’t always front run, has been kept to claiming and seller company recently and needs to step up on those efforts to be involved back in handicaps. Methaaly was given a really good ride by the very promising Robert Tart last time out but that was at Wolves and does appear a lot better there, he is 0 from 5 around here and 4lb rise leaves him needing more in a race not guaranteed to suit. Haadeeth is another that can be ridden prominently and should suit him and was only narrowly beaten last time out up 2lb for that but is still on a good mark if backing that effort up and should go well from a good draw. Belle Bayardo interests me the most at the prices given how this race could suit his prominent running style. He appeared to win with a little bit in hand at Kempton back in December, has been running well lately to still suggest he remains in form and is starting to slip in the weights again and is now just 3lb above that winning mark and wouldn’t be a surprise to see him go well in this sort of race. 1pt e/w Belle Bayardo 8/1 betfred

[Cowan]

Re: Flat Racing 16th Feb It just so happens that I'm in the same two races today as Chris so I'll compare our thoughts.

2.15 Lingfield Typical competitive Blue Square qualifier. Jack My Boy has been in great form this winter not always the easiest to put in front ran a good race last time out finishing 2^nd up 3lb for that race, he is capable off that sort of mark but not sure he always the most likeable horse.

I like the fact that Jack My Boy is relatively new to the AW and is thriving. I can see improvement from this one.

Desert Strike is badly out of form like the rest of the Conor Dore yard.

Agreed. Won C&D several runs ago but had an uncontested lead that day and won't get that here.

Billy Red is likely to burn off from the front but unlikely to get a soft lead, likely to find easier opportunities than this despite him being on a good mark.

Agreed. Too old at 9yo now. Formerly competitive off 84 at these conditions but now hasn't won over 6f in 2 years. Best left to 5f now.

Duke Of Aricabeau showed nothing after a short break last time out and returns again from another short break has a lot to prove.

A nothing horse.

Welease Bwain is a tricky customer and may have caught the eye of some last time out but he has just been generally frustrating and not always looked the easiest to put his head in front again and this mark just about sums him up at present.

Has come close second a couple of times and I know better than to write-off horses who have done that. Difficult to win with though, no doubt.

Marshall Art won a desperate selling handicap at Southwell 10 days ago a 5lb rise back on polytrack all make you think he has no chance given his general profile.

Looked hopeless until it won that Selling Handicap. That was a Southwell from a wide draw with and early lead - all those things bode well at that track and I think it was a one-off.

Above The Stars has done little in handicaps recently to suggest he can be competitive in a race like this.

This one had me deceived for a while. I was following it after it came close in a couple, but that's all come to nothing and it looks pretty uncompetitive.

Amenable is another that has done little but any money from this yard would be a good sign.

Is a decent Flat Turf horse but can't get going on the artificial surface. Can't find a win in Sellers/Claimers and unlikely to find one here.

My Own Way Home is a bit of a dark horse and has been a market mover, she ran a cracker in the first round of this 4 starts back has pretty much failed to build on that though in recent starts which has to be a worry but has dropped to 1lb below that good run and is 3lb below last winning mark and given the race should be run to suit she may be thereabouts if back to her best.

Tricky one this. Capable at Class 6 but not sure about it racing against more solid Class 5 opposition.

But the other that the race should be run to suit for is Tidals Baby who comes from the Tony Carrol yard who are going through a really good patch at present. He won a CD maiden in November before disappointing at Kempton, but rather caught the eye again at Wolves when meeting a lot of trouble in running, backed that effort up last time out when going very close over CD up 3lb for that and will defenetily need a strong pace over this sort of trip but looks very capable to continue progressing.

Certainly capable of winning a race like this. Needs a strong pace and I think it will get it. These days I tend to perm 3 horses in a Combination Forecast and Combination Tricast. Has been working well, albeit low strike rate. Sels: Jack My Boy (4.00), Tidal's Bay (4.50), Welease Bwian (5.00)

2.50 Lingfield Perhaps the stronger of the two divisions although weakened by the presence of 3 non runners. Proper Charlie looks a very short price given he was soundly beaten on good terms in a claimer last time out and previously well held in 2 handicaps since coming back off a break and really needs to step up on those efforts.

This time last year Proper Charlie would win this. Form has been poor coming back to the AW this season. However I think that the 2nd place in the Class 5 Seller last time out was a positive and so is the Jockey booking.

Cant consider Restless Bay given awful stable form.

I don't look at stable form (maybe I should, we'll see). Looks a capable horse down to its last winning mark. Not sure about the ride last time out - think it's better than that.

Andrew Balding yard not going great guns as you often expect this time of year but going well enough and Black Cadillac ran a solid race last week in one of these last week but is guaranteed such a strong pace this week which would be a worry although on a good mark to get involved should the pace be there.

Was an improving animal last season but seems to have hit the glass ceiling. Can't see where any improvement will come from now.

Dark Lane is an obvious pace angle but doesn’t always front run, has been kept to claiming and seller company recently and needs to step up on those efforts to be involved back in handicaps.

Agree about the pace angle. The race lacks pace and a prominent runner like this should have an advantage. Problem is I don't know what to make of all the Seller/Claimer form. I'll just have to wait and see what this one does. But I'm not backing it.

Methaaly was given a really good ride by the very promising Robert Tart last time out but that was at Wolves and does appear a lot better there, he is 0 from 5 around here and 4lb rise leaves him needing more in a race not guaranteed to suit.

Struggling to win these days at 10yo. Got down to a useful mark and had the pace to suit last time out. The subsequent rise in mark, and with the pace against it in this race, make me a pessimist.

Haadeeth is another that can be ridden prominently and should suit him and was only narrowly beaten last time out up 2lb for that but is still on a good mark if backing that effort up and should go well from a good draw.

I like the 2nd by a neck in its last race. Albeit at Class 6 I think it can go one better. I also like the Jockey.

Belle Bayardo interests me the most at the prices given how this race could suit his prominent running style. He appeared to win with a little bit in hand at Kempton back in December, has been running well lately to still suggest he remains in form and is starting to slip in the weights again and is now just 3lb above that winning mark and wouldn’t be a surprise to see him go well in this sort of race.

I agree. I just can't see what will bring about the improvement. But it is a young horse (given the age bracket of this race) and might well progress. Sels: Haadeeth (5.00), Restless Bay (11.00), Proper Charlie (7.50) GL :hope