Flat Racing 10th Feb Sunday

[chris34]

1.50 Southwell Pretty weak affair like much of the racing this afternoon but nonetheless one of these stood out on what he showed back here earlier in the week. Laylas Boy’s only win came over this CD but off a 6lb lower mark and although consistent at present on polytrack he looks summed up by his mark at present and return to this surface needs to bring about improvement and looks way too short at 3/1. Mighty Whitey has shown nothing in 2 runs here to date and failed to beat a rival at Dundalk recently. Maslak has a good course record and is on a very good mark, he returned to form last time out at Lingfield in a pretty desperate amateur handicap and that form might be worth taking at a pinch of salt except for the winner looking useful, it was his 2^nd run back from a break so is entitled to come on again for the run but risky given his declining profile at present. General Tufto never got involved earlier in the week and is another in decline at present and not guaranteed a strong pace given small field. Florimund is perhaps a bit of a dark horse off a basement mark given his current mark over hurdles is 116, he was a pretty useful juvenile before going the wrong way over in Ireland on the flat. Hadnt been for nearly 2 years before making a comeback last April and not seen again since then and also surface an unknown so can only be watched. Revolving World might be worth risking at a slightly bigger price than the market principals. He has run one or two eye catching runs over this course at times in his career and he ran a good race here earlier in the week to finish a staying on 4^th, this looks a weaker race also step up in trip looks in his favour on that evidence and could cause a mini upset if returning in same form 5 days later. 1pt win Revolving World 3.20 Southwell Easy to scrub several of these to narrow the field down to just a handful. Balmoral Castle appeared to run a much better race last time out in a claimer but that was a small field and weak and he could have been slightly flattered by that and a mark of 57 looks harsh enough on balance having also shown very little around here on penultimate start. Bonnie Prince Blue became frustrating round here last winter with slow starts often throwing his chances away, he did manage one win in April off this mark but badly out of sorts in recent starts so plenty risky enough despite good course record also yet to win over this trip. Bentley has the course form to be involved but not seen for nearly a year and record fresh is awful. Our Ivor appeared to improve out of everywhere over CD earlier in the week, running out of handicap that day so despite 6lb penalty is only 1lb higher and showed good battling quality to get the better of a good yard stick of Miama Gator with big gap back to 3^rd. No obvious reason for that improvement in form given she had run over CD before, at 6/4 she would be potentially on the short side to turn up in the same form given overall profile but perhaps yard have found key for him. The one that interests me at the prices is This Ones For Eddy who is a nice e/w shout against the questionable short priced favourite. He has won 3 times around here and the fitting of blinkers appeared to revive him recently before putting in a below par effort last time out, needs to put that behind him but this is a weak race and he is on a good mark given his last win came off 59 and just rated 52 now he is certainly worthy of a small e/w wager with Gibbons a strong booking with a 20% strike rate for the yard. 1pt e/w This Ones For Eddy 8/1 bet365 4.50 Southwell Probably the best race on the card and plenty of course form to go through. Desert Strike comes from the Conor Dore yard which is badly out of form at present and this trip far to far. Flying Pickets goes well here and a 2^nd in a claimer earlier in the week just advertised that but but nearly all his form comes in claimers and sellers and this a hot little race for the grade. Frontier Fighter is unexposed and showed a mark of 69 wasn’t without hope last time out on handicap debut but encounters this surface for the first time and stall 1 not ideal around here enough to prove at 3/1. Keith Dagliesh yard little quiet at present and Basset Road ran abysmal in an effort to follow up a win at Wolves 2 weeks ago, also tries surface for first time. Caramelita can go well here but her mark looks plenty high enough, Graham Lee is an eye catching booking though. Victorian Bounty has a very good record here having raced just twice here winning once and 3^rd the other time but trip a big worry and in no sort of form on back of too poor efforts but is on a lenient mark if anywhere near his best. Bitaphon has won around her and recent efforts suggest he remains in good heart but this mark looks to sum him up at present and unlikely to get a soft lead around here. Royal Holiday has quickly established himself as a course specialist winning 4 times around here including a double in early winter, been kept fit on polytrack and ran too good races to suggest he is still in good heart. Only 4lb higher for last win and may just have a little more to offer on this surface at present. 2pt win Royal Holiday 7/1 pp

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat Racing 10th Feb Sunday 4:20 Southwell: Dr Victoria 1/2 pt e/w 66/1 (1/4 12) Really only running for second place. However put in a reasonable enough performance on her only run here to think that is possible, and she ran ok for a fair way at Wolverhampton. There is just the (unlikely) scenario of Kabbaas not taking to the track / kickback.