Jump Racing Wednesday 6th

[cpo]

4.05 Carlisle Knoackara Beau 1.5pts EW @ 8/1 Ladbrokes This is a cracking little race for a Wednesday afternoon and there are two horses in here that interest me. Firstly Knockara Beau who has done me a couple of favours in the past and is probably the sentimental selection and secondly Quartz de Thaix who I think can show his run last time out to be completely wrong. Knoackara Beau did in fact win this race last year and he returns this year off a 3lb lower mark. He ran an encouraging race at Cheltenham last time out in a grade 2 event where he finished 4^th behind Reve De Sivola on similar ground. He is a 10 year old now but he clearly still retains plenty of ability. Carlisle and Kelso seem to be his best tracks as he is 2 from 2 here and has several wins at Kelso. He has 11-10 to carry for this but he lumped around 11-12 last year where he made all in a gutsy win. Paddy Brennan takes the ride for the 2^nd time after getting the leg up on him at Cheltenham and I certainly think he can make a bold big from the front. One thing I would say however is this year’s running of the race looks stronger than last years. Quartz de Thaix ran an absolute stinker last time out at Cheltenham but a couple of early errors knocked his confidence and he just didn’t jump well throughout the race. Before that he was in great form winning twice against useful opposition before getting outstayed by the dour stayer Master Overseer at Cheltenham. He looked the likely winner that day but just couldn’t hold on. His last few runs over hurdles in 2011 were not very good but the yard may have been going through a barren spell, which would explain the poor runs. He does have a win over hurdles off 142 and tomorrow he races off 147 with the jockey taking off another 5lbs. He should get competitive if the race at Cheltenham hasn’t dented his confidence. The stable remains in very good form so I would expect him to run well tomorrow. There are a few of young guns in here that are open to plenty of improvement. The likes of Shutthefrontdoor, Green Flag and Seymour Eric are all coming into this race on the back of 2 victories. The Jonjo trained Shutthefrontdoor has been doing all his winning over much shorter distances and makes a considerable step up in trip. He showed some very smart form in his unbeaten bumper career and has looked impressive in his hudrles wins to date. He is bred to appreciate this sort of trip so it will be interesting to see how he fare against a couple of more experienced rivals. The other youngster that is interesting is Green Flag who Lucinda Russell thinks the world of. He is improving with every race and loves heavy ground. They expect him to really come into his own when he goes over fences but until then he can make his presence felt over hurdles. Seymour Eric although improving, I don’t think is good enough to win this. I think the best he can hope for is a place. I don’t really see any of the others winning. I think at the current prices I am going to side with Knockara Beau. He was handed a ridiculously long lead last time out but the pack soon caught up with him and I don’t think it was that much of an advantage. He is 2 from 2 here and that run at Cheltenham was a very good one if you consider the horses that finished ahead of him are rated 139, 167 and 166. He has also never won at Cheltenham from 12 attempts so maybe the track doesn’t suit him as others do such as Carlisle and Kelso. Paddy Brennan keeps the ride and I am hopeful of a good run. He won this last year, conditions are very much in his favour and he could get an easy lead.

[Aidymac]

Re: Jump Racing Wednesday 6th *Cadoudalas > Ludlow 3:50 > WIN @ 9/1 Hills BOG* Was 2nd over course and distance off a mark of 132 in April 2012. Runs off 127 tomorrow, 5 pounds better off, so at the weights he must have a great chance. He has won over this trip before and ran well both tries on this course. Cheekpieces are on tomorrow which is also interesting, and Nolan takes 5 pounds off, so is effectively 10 pounds lower than its 2nd here last year.