orhane Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Hi, I wanted to share my US Sports Strategy with this forum from now on. It is based on recent line movement and tries to include the tendencies of consensus money bet on each event. I calculated a formula which had decent results so far this season for NBA, NHL, NFL and NCAA. I hope by keeping track here and with your insight I can develop better records. Picks will be posted mainly around 23:00-01:00 in the night before the events start. The reason for that is, that there a short term line movements which will predict my pick. My recent record so far: NBA: ATS: 340-292 Profit: 27,6 Totals: 366-322 Profit: 22,04 NHL: ML: 78-44 Profit: 16,22 NFL: ATS: 135-116 Profit: 10,90 Totals: 131-104 Profit: 19,14 Overall Profit: 95,9 units since September 2012 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orhane Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Re: US Sports Strategy selections for tonight all odds pinnacle sports. nba: totals: milwaukee@denver under 213 (1,94) lakers@brooklyn under 197,5 (1,88) golden state@houston under 217 (1,95) phoenix@memphis over 183,5 (2,00) atlanta@indiana over 182,5 (1,90) ats: indiana -6 (1,94) brooklyn -4 (2,00) memphis -8.5 (1,93) milwaukee +7 (1,95) nhl ml: detroit (1,7) st louis (1,51) winnipeg (1,78) washington (1,63) ottawa (1,69) san jose (1,91) tampa bay (2,08) ny rangers (1,97) la kings (1,65) pittsburgh (1,7) ncaa bb: purdue -2,5 (1,98) purdue@penn st under 125 (1,93) florida@arkansas under 141 (1,83) florida -10,5 (1,75) villanova@de paul under 144,5 (2,02) youngstown st -2 (1,88) wake forest@north carolina under 147,5 (1,93) north carolina -13,5 (1,96) central michigan +19 (1,79) missouri st +12,5 (1,91) kansas st -10,5 (1,88) valparaiso -12 (1,91) georgia tech -3,5 (2,18) ohio st@michigan under 131,5 (1,93) south carolina@kentucky over 139,5 (2,03) south carolina +17,5 (1,83) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orhane Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Re: US Sports Strategy so far this night nba: totals: milwaukee@denver under 213 (1,94) lakers@brooklyn under 197,5 (1,88) WON golden state@houston under 217 (1,95) LOST phoenix@memphis over 183,5 (2,00) WON atlanta@indiana over 182,5 (1,90) WON ats: indiana -6 (1,94) WON brooklyn -4 (2,00) LOST memphis -8.5 (1,93) LOST milwaukee +7 (1,95) nhl ml: detroit (1,7) LOST st louis (1,51) winnipeg (1,78) washington (1,63) LOST ottawa (1,69) san jose (1,91) tampa bay (2,08) ny rangers (1,97) LOST la kings (1,65) WON pittsburgh (1,7) WON ncaa bb: purdue -2,5 (1,98) WON purdue@penn st under 125 (1,93) WON florida@arkansas under 141 (1,83) LOST florida -10,5 (1,75) LOST villanova@de paul under 144,5 (2,02) LOST youngstown st -2 (1,88) LOST wake forest@north carolina under 147,5 (1,93) LOST north carolina -13,5 (1,96) WON central michigan +19 (1,79) WON missouri st +12,5 (1,91) WON kansas st -10,5 (1,88) LOST valparaiso -12 (1,91) WON georgia tech -3,5 (2,18) ohio st@michigan under 131,5 (1,93) south carolina@kentucky over 139,5 (2,03) south carolina +17,5 (1,83) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orhane Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Re: US Sports Strategy nba: totals: milwaukee@denver under 213 (1,94) LOST lakers@brooklyn under 197,5 (1,88) WON golden state@houston under 217 (1,95) LOST phoenix@memphis over 183,5 (2,00) WON atlanta@indiana over 182,5 (1,90) WON ats: indiana -6 (1,94) WON brooklyn -4 (2,00) LOST memphis -8.5 (1,93) LOST milwaukee +7 (1,95) PUSH nhl ml: detroit (1,7) LOST st louis (1,51) LOST winnipeg (1,78) WON washington (1,63) LOST ottawa (1,69) WON san jose (1,91) LOST tampa bay (2,08) LOST ny rangers (1,97) LOST la kings (1,65) WON pittsburgh (1,7) WON ncaa bb: purdue -2,5 (1,98) WON purdue@penn st under 125 (1,93) WON florida@arkansas under 141 (1,83) LOST florida -10,5 (1,75) LOST villanova@de paul under 144,5 (2,02) LOST youngstown st -2 (1,88) LOST wake forest@north carolina under 147,5 (1,93) LOST north carolina -13,5 (1,96) WON central michigan +19 (1,79) WON missouri st +12,5 (1,91) WON kansas st -10,5 (1,88) LOST valparaiso -12 (1,91) WON georgia tech -3,5 (2,18) LOST ohio st@michigan under 131,5 (1,93) LOST south carolina@kentucky over 139,5 (2,03) LOST south carolina +17,5 (1,83) LOST Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orhane Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Re: US Sports Strategy nba cleveland - charlotte under 205 detroit - brooklyn under 190 new orleans - phoenix under 194,5 toronto - boston under 191,5 dallas - portland under 201 utah - milwaukee under 200 orlando - la clippers over 184,5 minnesota - san anotnio over 198,5 atlanta - memphis over 182 philadelphia - indiana over 180,5 miami - houston over 207 washington - new york over 190,5 oklahoma city - golden state over 213 cleveland -6 atlanta +2 dallas -5 toronto -3,5 philadelphia -2 orlando +5 utah -5,5 new orleans -6,5 oklahoma city -10,5 houston +7,5 new york -4,5 brooklyn +2 san antonio -4,5 nhl ml: edmonton boston anaheim ncaa: creighton -5 alabama -3 tulane -5,5 bowling green -2,5 memphis -8,5 fordham - st louis under 133,5 tulsa -3 kansas -17,5 tcu - kansas over 117 wisconsin - iowa under 124 stanford +10,5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orhane Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Re: US Sports Strategy nba 20-14-1 over the last 2 days ncaa not doing so well as expected nhl is doing ok tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orhane Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Re: US Sports Strategy NHL Picks: Phoenix ML 1,59@pinnacle Anaheim ML 1,48@pinnacle NCAA BB Picks: Notre Dame +10,5 1,88@pinnacle Pittsburgh - Notre Dame Over 122,5 2,04@pinnacle Fairfield -2 1,79@pinnacle Hofstra +13 1,77@pinnacle Drexel - Hofstra Over 116,5 1,97@pinnacle Leigh -2 2,06@pinnacle Leigh - Bucknell Under 131 1,93@pinnacle Hampton - Norfolk St Under 132,5 1,97@pinnacle Villanova -9,5 1,75@pinnacle Villanova - Rutgers Under 130 1,93@pinnacle Kansas St -11 2,04@pinnacle Kansas St - West Virginia Over 127 1,93@pinnacle Portland State -4,5 1,97@pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theatrain Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Re: US Sports Strategy Hi Orphane I will be watching with interest. I also like the US sports. Lots of games everyday for most of the year. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Re: US Sports Strategy Hi, Orhane; will you, please, update your S/R and profit/loss for previous bets before continuing the thread. You have placed so many bets that it's difficult to follow it without update! Would appreciate if you can have a look at Rules for posting betting systems - one of the basic requirements is that you do not edit posts containing selections, since it puts a question mark on integrity of your selections; if you have anything to change, make a new post, don't edit the existing one! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orhane Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 Re: US Sports Strategy Ok since there have been a chaotic track keeping, I will start following the rulse from now on, sorry about that. So now I will keep overall results and daily profit loss records. Starting Yesterday because there have been such a great gap between my first selections and there sholud have been more selections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orhane Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 Re: US Sports Strategy Results from Yesterday: NHL Picks: Phoenix ML 1,59@Pinnacle WON Anaheim ML 1,48@Pinnacle WON NCAA BB Picks: Notre Dame +10,5 1,88@Pinnacle WON Pittsburgh - Notre Dame Over 122,5 2,04@Pinnacle LOST Fairfield -2 1,79@Pinnacle PUSH Hofstra +13 1,77@Pinnacle WON Drexel - Hofstra Over 116,5 1,97@Pinnacle WON Leigh -2 2,06@Pinnacle LOST Leigh - Bucknell Under 131 1,93@Pinnacle WON Hampton - Norfolk St Under 132,5 1,97@Pinnacle WON Villanova -9,5 1,75@Pinnacle LOST Villanova - Rutgers Under 130 1,93@Pinnacle LOST Kansas St -11 2,04@Pinnacle LOST Kansas St - West Virginia Over 127 1,93@Pinnacle WON Portland State -4,5 1,97@Pinnacle WON 1 Unit per Bet Record (Starting 19.2.2013): 9 Won - 5 Lost - 1 Push S/R: 64,3% Profit: 2,49 Units Return: 16,6% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TZOGAS Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Re: US Sports Strategy great job......many many thanks.......when you are going to give more selection? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orhane Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 Re: US Sports Strategy thank you so much, i usually wait one hour before the matches will start. then i track back public opinion, money movement and line moves. so the selections are based on trends. but there is no guarantee that my picks will be profitable in any day. i just want to share them to keep track and get the opinion form others. and if it works good for us all :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orhane Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 Re: US Sports Strategy NBA picks: Charlotte - Orlando Under 198,5 Brooklyn - Milwaukee Under 194 Detroit - Memphis Under 187,5 New Orleans - Chicago Under 181,5 Sacramento - San Antonio Over 209,5 Denver - Boston Over 204,5 Washington - Toronto Over 190,5 Utah - Golden State Over 203,5 Portland - Phoenix Under 194 Brooklyn -5 Portland -6,5 Orlando -5 Washington -3 Chicago -1,5 Memphis -2,5 San Antonio -9 NCAA BB Picks: Michigan St - Indiana Under 141 Tennessee - Louisiana St Under 131,5 N.C. State - Florida St. Over 147 Marquette -5,5 Texas -6 Valparaiso -6 Missouri St +6 Saint Louis - VCU Over 133,5 Miami-Florida -8 Miami-Florida - Virginia Over 115,5 North Carolina -3 Maryland -2 Missouri - Florida Over 138 Florida -5,5 Utah St. +12 Wyoming +11,5 NHL: Chicago ML Buffalo ML St Louis ML NY Rangers ML Edmonton ML Tampa Bay ML NY Islanders ML Detroit ML Odds will follow tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orhane Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 Re: US Sports Strategy Results from Yesterday: NBA picks: Charlotte - Orlando Under 198,5 @1,96 WON Brooklyn - Milwaukee Under 194 @1,89 LOST Detroit - Memphis Under 187,5 @1,89 LOST New Orleans - Chicago Under 181,5 @1,91 LOST Sacramento - San Antonio Over 209,5 @1,83 WON Denver - Boston Over 204,5 @1,95 LOST Washington - Toronto Over 190,5 @1,94 LOST Utah - Golden State Over 203,5 @2,01 WON Portland - Phoenix Under 194 @1,83 LOST Brooklyn -5 @1,94 LOST Portland -6,5 @1,97 LOST Orlando -5 @1,96 LOST Washington -3 @1,96 LOST Chicago -1,5 @2,02 WON Memphis -2,5 @1,91 WON San Antonio -9 @1,95 LOST NCAA BB Picks: Michigan St - Indiana Under 141 @1,86 WON Tennessee - Louisiana St Under 131,5 @1,97 LOST N.C. State - Florida St. Over 147 @1,94 WON Marquette -5,5 @2,11 WON Texas -6 @2,04 WON Valparaiso -6 @1,93 WON Missouri St +6 @1,84 PUSH Saint Louis - VCU Over 133,5 @1,91 WON Miami-Florida -8 @1,93 LOST Miami-Florida - Virginia Over 115,5 @1,64 LOST North Carolina -3 @1,83 WON Maryland -2 @2,26 LOST Missouri - Florida Over 138 @1,78 LOST Florida -5,5 @2,12 LOST Utah St. +12 @1,91 WON Wyoming +11,5 @1,87 LOST NHL: Chicago ML @1,93 WON Buffalo ML @1,72 LOST St Louis ML @1,87 LOST NY Rangers ML @1,64 LOST Edmonton ML @2,05 LOST Tampa Bay ML @1,65 WON NY Islanders ML @2,10 LOST Detroit ML @2,11 LOST Results for Today: 15 WON 24 LOST Profit: -10,16 Units Overall Results: 24 WON - 29 LOST - 2 PUSH SR: 45,28% Profit: -7,67 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orhane Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 Re: US Sports Strategy NBA: Charlotte - Detroit Under 196 Dallas - Orlando Under 206 Minnesota - Philadelphia Under 186,5 LA Lakers - Boston Under 194,5 Milwaukee - Brooklyn Under 194,5 Cleveland - New Orleans Under 196,5 Atlanta - Miami Over 194,5 Houston - Oklahoma City Over 220,5 Indiana - New York Over 185 Toronto - Memphis Over 186,5 Golden State - Phoenix Over 205 Milwaukee -4 Toronto +1 Indiana -3,5 Cleveland -3 Dallas -11,5 Oklahoma City -3 Philadelphia +3,5 Miami -5,5 Detroit -3,5 NCAA: Massachusetts +3 Mississippi -6 George Washington -11 George Mason -6,5 Charleston -2,5 Northeastern -5 Ohio State - Minnesota Over 126 Wright St -1,5 St. John's -7,5 Ohio -15 Tennessee St. -7 Appalachian St. -10,5 Jacksonville St. -5 Evansville +1 Tulsa -2,5 Baylor -4,5 Northern Colorado -6,5 UC Santa Barbara -2,5 UC Irvine -2,5 Arizona St -6,5 Long Beach St -8 Cal St Fullerton -1,5 UNLV -4 UNLV - Colorado St Under 139 Washington +12,5 Arizona - Washington Over 137 Gonzaga -12,5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orhane Posted March 8, 2013 Author Share Posted March 8, 2013 Re: US Sports Strategy So it is hard to keep track of every match. To have it in an easier way, I would like to share the insight of my US Sports Strategy. I tracked back the data of covers.com Consensus and Expert picks: In each of the US Sports there were different paths to glory: The easiest strategy was to use the picks in the NBA. Take the ATS picks of the experts and take the Totals Pick of the Consensus. The most important hing to do, is to wait as long as possible before the game starts. Example for Wednesday: 8 wins 5 lost on the experts ATS picks 2,52 units profit 8 wins 6 lost on the consensus TOTALS picks 1,52 units profit. I am backtesting NHL, NFL, NCAA and MLB too, but it takes a long time to input the data via excel. So to sum it up: In the NBA back the Experts on ATS and back the Consensus on Totals. LAter I will share my Tennis strategy next. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orhane Posted March 8, 2013 Author Share Posted March 8, 2013 Re: US Sports Strategy For picking Tennis I use the data of tennisbetting365.com I take the winning precentages for each player and multiply them with the best odds offered for them on oddsportal.com The two main strategies for backing a player is that perceantage of TB365*offered odd > 1,15 and that the BOTH players must have played minimum of 50 matches in the ATP Tour in the last 18 months. I take the tour stats from matchstat.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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