UFC 156

[Plastikman]

Jose Aldo(21-1-0) vs Frankie Edgar(14-3-1) Many believe(me included) that Edgar beat Henderson in his last fight at Lightweight. Aldo goes in as favourite, but I can see this fight being close( especially the longer the fight goes on). There have been calls for years for Frankie to drop down to Featherweight as this is a more natural weight for him, so it will be interesting to see how he copes. He will probably have less of a speed advantage but will be up against similar sized opponents. Edgar has great footwork and will be looking to settle into his rhythm as quickly as possible- he generally looks stronger towards the end of fights compared to the beginning. He is a better wrestler than Aldo but Aldo has amazing take down defence and this will play a significant part in this fight. Edgars best chance is to get settled early and use his footwork to outpoint Aldo – if this fight goes 5 rounds, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Edgar sneak one or two rounds on the judges card towards the end. Aldo has some of the best leg kicks out there and that can help combat Frankie’s take down attempts. I expect to see Aldo utilise his leg kick early to help neutralise Edgars foot work and slow him down. Aldo has shown he can gas out late on into 5 round fights, if you look at the Mark Hominck fight as an example. This will be Aldo’s biggest test for a long time and I expect to see him come through with a KO in round 2 or 3. If this fight goes to the judges, I can see Edgar stealing a couple of rounds for Aldo edging a close result. Aldo K/O 9/5 Paddypower

[Keyskills]

Re: UFC 156 Agree with you on this 100% here, and definitely tempted with Aldo by KO/TKO at 9/5. With that said, here's my first bet for the night, going for a distance market accumulator at 8/1: Edgar/Aldo Not to go distance Maia/Fitch, McCall/Benavidez, Dunham/Tibau, Evans/Nog all to go distance Main worries there are probably Maia potentially to get a sub victory, although Fitch has only been submitted once in his career, back in 2002, and I think his general pace will control the fight against Maia to a decision victory. Other possibly Rashad Evans may be able to get a TKO victory from ground and pound and Nog not fighting back. Best odds are 11/10 for Aldo/Edgar not to go the distance, if you can ever get odds for a 5 round fight not to go the distance at over evens money it's always worth a bet, as I'm probably 60-70% sure this won't go the distance. Will do a more thorough analysis later, with a couple more accumulators and a few singles that stand out to me. Alistair Overeem to win by KO/TKO at 1/2 seems a steal to me, Bigfoot keeps getting fed to the dogs and has been KO/TKO'ed a few times in the past, plus Overeem is an absolute tank and should finish this very early/easily IMO.

[Smartigan]

Re: UFC 156 I'm leaning towards Edgar by decision 23/10 in PP

[Keyskills]

Re: UFC 156 Picked out 4 value plays which I'm gonna stick as doubles (if any 2 of them win then i'll have made profit) Ian McCall to win @ 2/1 Jose Aldo KO/TKO @ 9/5 Gleison Tibau by decision @ 7/5 Rashad Evans by KO/TKO @ 23/10 I wouldn't be surprised to see any of these happening, but they're all tough fights to call. So I fancy doing the doubles on these just because as long as 2 win i'll have made a small profit, then if 3 or 4 win the profit will obviously be much greater. To put these in doubles makes it 6 bets, and I've worked out that the smallest return is 6.72 units, so if you put the same units on each double, then the least you'll make is a profit of 0.72 units, providing at least 2 of these outcomes happen. Onto my reasoning for this: Ian McCall to win @ 2/1: I believe this will be a really exciting back and forth fight, and could easily sway either way, more than likely going to the judges. I do believe Benavidez is the overall better fighter, and probably more of a clever fighter when it comes to swaying the judges and winning rounds, as McCall is pretty crazy fighter. However, I do feel the fight is a lot more competitive than the odds for McCall suggest. I'd probably put McCall more around the 6/4 marker, so odds of 2/1 are too good to resist. Jose Aldo by KO/TKO @ 9/5: I just feel Aldo will need to finish the fight to get the victory, if it goes to decision I could see Edgar taking the later rounds due to being in better shape really. Think Aldo is out to make a statement and said he wants to send Edgar back to his old weight class. Although if Aldo can slow Edgar down with his vicious leg kicks, he may be able to go on for a comfortable decision. Yet again, odds of 9/5 for Aldo by KO/TKO are too good to turn down IMO. Tibau by decision @ 7/5: I can see this fight going down to the judges, and really believe it is a pick'em fight, where either fighter could easily take this. Slightly in favour of Tibau as he likes his takedowns, and will look to get this fight to the ground and control out a decision victory. Can't complain with odds over evens for this outcome. Rashad Evans by KO/TKO @ 23/10: this is more of a value play, I think the most likely outcome is Rashad to grind out a decision victory. But I believe he could easily get a TKO out of this, from the ref stopping him ground and pounding on Nog who is unable to defend himself. At odds of over 2/1, you can't really complain. I do think the chances of at least 2 of these outcomes happening are pretty high, I do think the McCall and Tibau are going to be very tight, and a bit of luck on my side could give those to wins. But in the past, being let down by just 1 outcome due to poor judging decisions so playing this more safe with just doubles on these 4 value plays. Next bet is my ''safe'' bet: Jacob Volkmann Rashad Evans Jon Fitch Alistair Overeem by KO/TKO this returns 2.28/1 and even though that might seem low odds, I feel it's probably as safe a bet as I can get to for this somewhat tricky card. I'm going to add to that ''safe bet'' with Tibau, Edwards, Camus and Woodley to up the odds, which I think comes to about 25/1. These are my initial accumulator bets, will probably post a few singles up throughout the night depending how well the night is going.

[Smartigan]

Re: UFC 156 Yeah that main event is too close to call Aldo by tko or Edgar decision Evans tko has to be a banker! maybe 2nd round to up the odds

[Keyskills]

Re: UFC 156 Best bet of the night for me is definitely Overeem by KO/TKO, can't stress how good odds of 1/2 are for that! That's like betting on Mayweather to KO someone, in Mayweathers case you'd be looking at odds of like 1/10 at best. 1/2 is insane. One of the main reasons why UFC's so good to bet on. If this was boxing you'd get 1/50 and 1/100 on fights like Overeem and Rashad Evans to win tonight, yet you're getting 1/5 and roughly 1/4, odds are crazy for UFC IMO.

[Keyskills]

Re: UFC 156 WHAT a start to the card, love it when the facebook fights are exciting, a shame the camus/kimura fight will probably bring us back down a bit, still a great start to an absolutely STACKED card. Safe to say that first fight has woken me up a bit haha.

[Keyskills]

Re: UFC 156 Had 4 fighters making their UFC debut tonight and all 4 won. Crazy stat as the Octagon jitters will 80% of the time be the reason why debutants don't win their first ever UFC fight. Albeit Camus making crazy decisions to keep going for takedowns in a fight he was winning against a guy with a MUCH better ground game, to then be submitted in the 3rd. Volkmann surprised me as well, his gas tank usually is ridiculous, looked like he had nothing left halfway into the second and got finished right near the end of the 3rd in a fight which could have gone either way if it went to the judges. Plus a debatable split-decision victory for vallie-flag over edwards. Really looking forward to the main card now, all fights have been interesting to say the least! Feeling a bit more confident with my 4 value plays on this card.

[Keyskills]

Re: UFC 156 Crazy night for betting, a night for the underdogs for sure. Only 3 favourites have won in the 10 fights at odds of 1/3, 2/5 and 4/5. Only open bet left for me is Edgar/Aldo fight NOT to go the distance to complete my 8/1 distance market which will save me for the event, on what was a ridiculously unpredictable night in the UFC.

[Plastikman]

Re: UFC 156

Crazy night for betting, a night for the underdogs for sure. Only 3 favourites have won in the 10 fights at odds of 1/3, 2/5 and 4/5. Only open bet left for me is Edgar/Aldo fight NOT to go the distance to complete my 8/1 distance market which will save me for the event, on what was a ridiculously unpredictable night in the UFC.

Crazy night, but this happens sometimes. Overeem really underestimated Bigfoot and I aren't sure where Evans head was in that fight. I see Pettis is considering dropping down a weight to fight Aldo. That would be an awesome fight!

[Smartigan]

Re: UFC 156 Ridiculous night for betting i had 50 on Edgar to win by decision and felt like he did enough but that could have been through bias eyes, I'll have to watch it again

[Plastikman]

Re: UFC 156

Ridiculous night for betting i had 50 on Edgar to win by decision and felt like he did enough but that could have been through bias eyes, I'll have to watch it again

Rounds 4 and 5 were definitely Edgar . Round 3 I gave to Aldo but you could argue a case for Edgar.You had no chance with the judges that were there- two scored 49-46 to Aldo?! That's really poor judging- feel a bit sorry for Edgar losing these close decisions each time he fights. 8 underdogs won on that card...a card that seemed easier to predict! Cant remember seeing so many upsets.

[Keyskills]

Re: UFC 156 Yeah it was a crazy crazy night. Never seen someone fight so stupid as Overeem though, it was clear Bigfoot was just looking to survive the first round, he barely threw a punch, and Overeem had it 2 rounds to 0. Also, if Overeem wanted to throw any big kicks/knees/punches, he could have finished the fight whenever he wanted to. But you could tell he wanted to win a decision victory by having his hands down his side the whole fight. But anyone who is gonna have their hands by their side to allow a HEAVYWEIGHT fighter to land 10+ clean punches to their head, they will get knocked out (unless your name's big country), simple as that. I do feel sorry for Edgar, as no one can question his heart, and he never seems to get the rub of the green when it comes to close fights (i.e Benson Henderson). I did give it 48-47 Aldo in the end, and I think the judges would have been swayed by looking at the two guys faces by the end of the fight, no doubt that Aldo scored much more damage than Edgar. I just wish that card was in Brazil, would have definitely done a Brazil accumulator (as the judges are SO bias there), which would have included underdogs of Maia, Bigfoot, Little Nog and obviously Aldo. The last 3 UFC cards have been somewhat unpredictable, but as you said, 8 underdogs winning on this one was just crazy. The next UFC in London doesn't even look the safest of cards, some really interesting matchups, especially Maunuwa/Diabate and Te Huna/Jimmo. The only thing I can say about those 2 fights is, they won't go the distance.

[bully3061]

Re: UFC 156 Im a massive edgar fan but i felt Aldo was always doing enough. I like the fighter who can take a good hiding and still go back for more Overeem got what he deserved. Even b4 getting into the cage he was keen. Nearly forgetting his mouth piece. Then from the start it looked like Overeem was well in control. Total lack of respect cost him. Good job also coz on that evidence he does not want to go anywhere near Cain. In the after fight press Silva said Overeem never had the cadio. Talk of Silva geting another crack at Cain but seems pointless to me. Roll on fight 3 Cain v JDS as he will be more prepeared this time round. Not saying he will win but least will make a fight of it.