UFC 156

[Plastikman]

Jose Aldo(21-1-0) vs Frankie Edgar(14-3-1) Many believe(me included) that Edgar beat Henderson in his last fight at Lightweight. Aldo goes in as favourite, but I can see this fight being close( especially the longer the fight goes on). There have been calls for years for Frankie to drop down to Featherweight as this is a more natural weight for him, so it will be interesting to see how he copes. He will probably have less of a speed advantage but will be up against similar sized opponents. Edgar has great footwork and will be looking to settle into his rhythm as quickly as possible- he generally looks stronger towards the end of fights compared to the beginning. He is a better wrestler than Aldo but Aldo has amazing take down defence and this will play a significant part in this fight. Edgars best chance is to get settled early and use his footwork to outpoint Aldo – if this fight goes 5 rounds, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Edgar sneak one or two rounds on the judges card towards the end. Aldo has some of the best leg kicks out there and that can help combat Frankie’s take down attempts. I expect to see Aldo utilise his leg kick early to help neutralise Edgars foot work and slow him down. Aldo has shown he can gas out late on into 5 round fights, if you look at the Mark Hominck fight as an example. This will be Aldo’s biggest test for a long time and I expect to see him come through with a KO in round 2 or 3. If this fight goes to the judges, I can see Edgar stealing a couple of rounds for Aldo edging a close result. Aldo K/O 9/5 Paddypower

[Keyskills]

Re: UFC 156 Agree with you on this 100% here, and definitely tempted with Aldo by KO/TKO at 9/5. With that said, here's my first bet for the night, going for a distance market accumulator at 8/1: Edgar/Aldo Not to go distance Maia/Fitch, McCall/Benavidez, Dunham/Tibau, Evans/Nog all to go distance Main worries there are probably Maia potentially to get a sub victory, although Fitch has only been submitted once in his career, back in 2002, and I think his general pace will control the fight against Maia to a decision victory. Other possibly Rashad Evans may be able to get a TKO victory from ground and pound and Nog not fighting back. Best odds are 11/10 for Aldo/Edgar not to go the distance, if you can ever get odds for a 5 round fight not to go the distance at over evens money it's always worth a bet, as I'm probably 60-70% sure this won't go the distance. Will do a more thorough analysis later, with a couple more accumulators and a few singles that stand out to me. Alistair Overeem to win by KO/TKO at 1/2 seems a steal to me, Bigfoot keeps getting fed to the dogs and has been KO/TKO'ed a few times in the past, plus Overeem is an absolute tank and should finish this very early/easily IMO.