Flat Racing Saturday 2nd February

[Lodge]

2.20 – Lingfield – Aqua Ardens @ 14/1 Bet365 I’ve been waiting for this one to return to the AW for quite a while now and he finally does tomorrow. Has some decent form in AW maidens, the stand out piece being a 2^nd place to Prodigality who is now rated 95. He started off life in handicaps off a mark of 77, and wasn’t disgraced off that mark on his handicap debut either, which came at this course. He then went onto turf and had 4 starts where he failed to even place once, this has dropped him down the handicap to a mark of 65, which I think he could fully well exploit tomorrow returned to his favoured surface. Pitched straight into a class 6 handicap, and although it is reasonably competitive, the majority of the in-form horses in this are shouldering penalties for recent performances and may find this harder. The one negative is the 129 day break but he hails from a yard with a good AW strike rate and I’m sure they can ready one. Runs over 6f, the trip he won a maiden over and has a good draw in stall 2. I could well be barking up the wrong tree with this one but I think the fact that the trainer has stuck with him despite his bad form over the summer says alot and they could just have planned to take advantage of his falling mark on the AW. He’s still unexposed and although the market will probably give a good idea of his chances I’m happy taking the early price which I feel is generous.

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 2nd February 14.30 Kenilworth: Jackson @ 22/10 Sportingbet - 4pts win Grade 1 J&B Met - One of the two most important races in South Africa is the J&B Met and it looks a cracking renewal tomorrow. Favourite is Jackson and I hope he justifies this position in the market and silences his doubters with a big run as I'm a huge fan of this strong colt. There speaks loads in his favour tomorrow anyway. Exactly one year ago Jackson was thought to be the upcoming South African Superstar after winning four on the bounce including the Grade 1 Cape Derby in very convincing style on Met day, beating a certain Variety Club by 2 lengths. That day it was Jackson's first start over 2.000m and he was a revelation over that sort of trip. Since then he ran only one more time over this trip, winning the Grade 1 Daily News 2000 in breathtaking style. Soon after that he was the hot favourite in the most important race in SA, the Durban July over 2.200m. He flopped that day. Maybe the trip was too far or something else was wrong (he had a wide draw and a big weight to shoulder for a 3yo), but fact is this was - apart of his debut run when he finished in 5th - his only off day in eleven career starts. In all other races he finished always in the money. He got a break after the July, made his reappearance in November finishing 3rd to Variety Club over 1.400m. Since then he's been beaten another two times by this certain horse, then over the 1.600m trip. Most recently in the Grade 1 Queen's Plate. That is a very interesting piece of form though. There was some trouble with the start that day, as there was a false start and Jackson - described as an adrenalin horse by his trainer - must have been impacted by this. He still ran a huge race in the second attempt, having been racing very handy, getting outpaced 3f out but running on like a train in the closing stages to pipe Pomodoro (2nd favourite tomorrow) on the line for the 2nd place. He finished distressed after the race and one can only assume that he'd been running even a bit better without the false start. Anyway, 1.600m is too short for him against a top class miler like Variety Club and he will very much appreciate to be back over 2.000m tomorrow, a trip he's been unbeaten in two starts so far, winning two Grade 1's. Jackson has been awarded a good draw with barrier 5 and I feel he can't get beaten with a clear run from this draw over this trip from any horse in South Africa at the moment. He'll be in fantastic shape tomorrow, connections are bullish regarding his chance and while you can be never quite sure what happens in big races like this with many starters one thing is for sure: Jackson loves this track, it's his home track, and he simply has a burden of talent and will take the world of beating tomorrow in my mind. Jackson last morning enjoying a bit of a bath at the beach - he looks just stunning, doesn't he? Absolutely love this horse... picture source: http://www.africanbettingclan.com/forum/phorum-5.1.15/read.php?3,360722