SR and Value

[stat man]

Calculate the theoretical SR of your backing system by dividing 100 by the average exchange odds of your selections. For example: If the average exchange odds of your selections is 4.0, then the theoretical SR of your system is 100/4.0 = 25%. To calculate the theoretical SR of your laying system, perform the above and then subtract the result from 100. For example: If the average exchange odds of your selections is 4.0, then the theoretical SR of your system is 100 - 100/4.0 = 100 – 25 = 75%. If the actual SR of your system is better than your theoretical SR, then you have a gift for selecting horses. If the actual SR of your system is worse than your theoretical SR, then your selection system needs to be improved. In theory, your ROI will be Actual SR – Theoretical SR -3% if you are using Betdaq and -5% if you are using betfair. For example, if your actual SR = 30% and your theoretical SR = 25% and you use Betdaq, your theoretical ROI should be 30 – 25 – 3 = 2%. If your actual ROI is better than this, you are getting value on your bets. If your actual ROI is worse, you are getting negative value on your bets and you need to look at how and when you are betting. For example, if you normally bet before the off, you may get better value by placing bets after the off. It is entirely possible that your actual SR is less than the theoretical SR but you are still making a profit. In this case, you may not be the best when it comes to picking horses but the horses that you do pick have oodles of value. Likewise. it is entirely possible that your actual SR is greater than the theoretical SR but you are making a loss. In this case, you are good at selecting horses but the value that they contain is negative. In which case, if you are backing the horses, consider laying them and, if you laying them, consider backing them.

[kreator88]

Re: SR and Value good stuff to remind and remember ... actually one of my biggest problems when betting on footie or tennis - where your SR is a lot higher but the odds are nowhere near the ones from horses. thanks ;)