Newbie tool-kit + example on how to analyze a race

[kreator88]

Hello guys, after reading this forum up and down.... (still have a part of the Q & A) I must admit... I need some help reading this form books (somehow I don't get it right). In the table you'll see how I would analyze the 2;35 Wolves race. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500, align: center]

[TR] [TD][TABLE=width: 1113] [TR] [TD]Nume[/TD] [TD]draw[/TD] [TD]% trainer[/TD] [TD]% jock[/TD] [TD]RD[/TD] [TD]going[/TD] [TD]class of race[/TD] [TD]track[/TD] [TD]rating[/TD] [TD]weight[/TD] [TD]days since[/TD] [TD]t speed[/TD] [TD]av speed[/TD] [TD]hcap[/TD] [TD]cur form[/TD] [TD]support[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Crimson Queen[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]21[/TD] [TD]19[/TD] [TD]5f[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]d 3[/TD] [TD]u 3[/TD] [TD]ok[/TD] [TD]42[/TD] [TD]42[/TD] [TD]34[/TD] [TD]up[/TD] [TD]no[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Desert Strike[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]23[/TD] [TD]28[/TD] [TD]5-6f[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]u 5[/TD] [TD]const[/TD] [TD]ok[/TD] [TD]59[/TD] [TD]52[/TD] [TD]43[/TD] [TD]down?[/TD] [TD]small[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Strong man[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]23[/TD] [TD]29[/TD] [TD]6f[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]u 3[/TD] [TD]u 3[/TD] [TD]ok[/TD] [TD]60[/TD] [TD]58[/TD] [TD]49[/TD] [TD]up[/TD] [TD]medium[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Cardinal[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]23[/TD] [TD]24[/TD] [TD]6f[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]d 2[/TD] [TD]u 3[/TD] [TD]ok[/TD] [TD]56[/TD] [TD]54[/TD] [TD]46[/TD] [TD]up[/TD] [TD]medium[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Shawkant[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]22[/TD] [TD]15[/TD] [TD]5f[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]d 3[/TD] [TD]const[/TD] [TD]ok[/TD] [TD]58[/TD] [TD]48[/TD] [TD]41[/TD] [TD]down[/TD] [TD]small[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Master of Dis[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]21[/TD] [TD]19[/TD] [TD]5-6f[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]const[/TD] [TD]d 3[/TD] [TD]ok[/TD] [TD]57[/TD] [TD]53[/TD] [TD]46[/TD] [TD]const[/TD] [TD]small[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Passionada[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]33[/TD] [TD]30[/TD] [TD]5f[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]u 5[/TD] [TD]const[/TD] [TD]40[/TD] [TD]54[/TD] [TD]54[/TD] [TD]48[/TD] [TD]const[/TD] [TD]medium[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]No mean trick[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]21[/TD] [TD]23[/TD] [TD]5f[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]d 2[/TD] [TD]u 3[/TD] [TD]ok[/TD] [TD]49[/TD] [TD]45[/TD] [TD]42[/TD] [TD]const[/TD] [TD]no[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Yourelike[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]no[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] I'm using the following tools at this moment: gg.com - for trainer and jockey stats (I take the average between the going and the distance percentage of the place market) patternform - for all the other data for the draw bias I used the statement copied from the racing post by paddy. (would prefer something like adrianmasseys draw analyse but it seems not updated since 2010 ... anything similar on the market?) The averages are made considering last 4 races. With red color I mark the top 3 (or positive ones) (would have chosen green but it's a lot harder to read) d means down, and u means up (example Passionade is 5 points up in the ratings) Conclussion: considering this and odd value I would lay Passionade (not sure yet if lay win @ 3.40 or place @ 1.45...more likely I'll take the win). The reason would be that I have to many question marks reagarding this horse. It's stepping up in class, the ground will be a lot harder to run and I think it's more suitable for 6f runner than 5f runners like Passionade. Also it has a bad top speed, so any of the other horses can bounce (and not all of them can have a bad day). Question also regarding the 40 days break period (I saw it tends to be off the track around 25 days...but now it's around 40). Also it has the highest raise in the ratings. Big draw could also be a problem (LTO it had a lot of luck after the start to be in such a good position despite the big draw number). Biggest danger in my eyes are strong man and cardinal who are going up in form...but also could expect some surprises from Desert Strike or Shawkantango Would love to receive your input on my I should improve (i know...a lot :P) and what I've got totally wrong... thanks in advance and hope the thread isn't posted in the wrong place

[kreator88]

Re: Newbie tool-kit + example on how to analyze a race support doesn't mean up or down in the market... I read several forums and tipsters I trust and I write down the conclusion in that column.