Jumps Racing - Tuesday 15th January

[Bathtime For Rupert]

2.00 Lingfield - 2pts win Farbreaga @ 14/1 (Bet365) I personally can't fathom why this horse is 14/1 for this dire race personally but so long as there isn't something I'm missing, I'm more than happy to take the price and is worthy of a decent bet given the value. You can never be too certain in such weak affairs but this one definitely has the credentials to take this. He is the top-weight but the very capable Jeremiah McGrath takes off 5lbs to ease the burden and his form isn't too bad. I find issues with all of these really - Dalyrymple is honest enough but not convinced he ideally wants 2m4f on heavy and doesn't win often. Stamina also looks a concern with Cuckoo Rock so I think there can be an upset. Jamie Poulton's runner did at least get his head in front two starts back and for all it's true he had the run of a very bad race it was a win and it was his first run for a while so perhaps needed it anyway. Either side of that he was staying on into midfield in stronger races (2m1f and 2m4f) and looks like a testing 2m4f is ideal. He made all when winning on his reappearance so on his last run it seems plausible that he'll go back to racing more prominently which looks sure to help. He was beaten 42l last time but was 7th of 17 and was off 2lbs higher without a claimer on board. He's effectively 7lbs lower here and the winner won by 17l to exaggerate the margin. That one has subsequently placed twice including off 130 last time. The race that my selection competed in at Sandown was full of types rated between 110-120 so it was a lot better than this race where his highest-rated rival runs off 92. He's in decent heart, handles conditions, has won recently and drops markedly down in grade, so looks a crazy price to me with questions hovering above many of these.

[Aidymac]

Re: Jumps Racing - Tuesday 15th January *Cheat The Cheater > Ffos Las 3:15 > WIN @ 11/2 Boylesports BOG* Rebecca Curtis has two in this race with McCoy riding her other one, but the money is coming for this one which I find interesting. It is still very lightly raced and has run with credit all 4 starts, was 2nd on debut here at Ffos Las behind a good Henderson type. Last time out in a good competitive handicap at Ascot, it was 7th, but if you watch the race it was not given a hard race and had more in the tank. It goes on heavy ground which is has today and there is a decent 7 pound claimer on board to make life easier on the ground. Must be in with a good shout here.