Flat Racing - Tuesday 15th of January

[robertob]

13.30 Scottsville: Grayson @ 25/1 Sportingbet - 1pt win Brave call as there is hardly a case to make for Grayson judged on what he's shown so far. He showed some promise in his penultimate race when finishing a fine 4th as a 66/1 chance while the saddle was slipping, but was far beaten in all his other three starts. His last start in November is a form to ignore though as something was wrong with him. He got a break of two month and is back at the track now and makes a huge step up in trip. This can be only in his favour as he is actually well bred for middle-distance-races. His sire won the Durban July and South African Derby over 11f & 12f so being upped in trip to 2.400m will surly suit. His mother was also a very decent horse being 93 rated at her best and was winning races varying from 1.800 to 2.200m. Very eye-catching is the jockey booking as the super inform trainer Dean Kannemeyer (27% strike rate last 30 runners) links up with C. Orffer, both enjoying a 40% strike rate together this season. So that all give me the impression that the horse has shown something at home, that they hope the step up in trip will bring out improvement and that they surely mean business tomorrow. It is such a poor race anyway, with some horses still looking for the first winner after 26 starts that a big shock in terms of the price wouldn't be the biggest surprise then. 14.35 Scottsville: Las Ramblas @ 11/2 Sportingbet - 3pts win Las Ramblas was a surprise winner @ 22/1 in the Listed Michael Roberts Handicap at Scottsville on Sunday just two day ago when taking advantage of a feather weight in her favoured wet conditions. She drops right down into a FM83 Handicap tomorrow getting her merit rating mark raised from 83 up to 85, which is effectively 1kg more on her back in this race. This is a big weight as she is the third highest rated horse in the field but she should be able to defy it as she looks in cracking form and will also benefit being up in trip tomorrow. She has a favourable low draw which should ensure that she gets her usual prominent position in the field and as she was once a 97 rated filly she should be well able to dominate this significantly weaker field than that one which she did encounter in the Listed race just two days ago. A big plus is also that champion jockey Anton Marcus is up to take the ride. He won on her already and has a cracking 50% strike rate with trainer James Goodman's horses (5/10).