Jumps Racing - Wednesday 9th January

[Bathtime For Rupert]

1.40 Doncaster - 1pt win Toby Belch @ 10/1 (Bet365) Robert Thornton rides Doncaster very well and has an impressive 23% strike rate at the track in the last five years. He also is 1-3 when riding for Henry Daly and although this horse is clearly not straight forward, he would have a decent chance at 10/1 so long as the ground isn't really testing. He does want it on the good side and I don't think he'll find it too bad here with the ground described as good to soft and Doncaster usually drains pretty well. He's a big horse who looks like a chaser and I'm not put off by his absence. To me he appears a horse who needs time between his races and regularly has run good races when fresh. He returned from 18 months off last autumn and shaped really well before fading away and he seemed to hilariously bounce next time when running no race. After that he ran just 10 days later on soft ground and once again failed to fire.] However, his last two starts of the season were much more encouraging. Given three weeks off, he got his good ground and cheekpieces were applied and he was a clear 2nd at Leicester. The front two were well clear and early on in the race he was very lethargic - which ultimately cost him. He ran over 3m5f at Warwick on his final start when beaten 6l so he stays pretty well and I fancy he's a better horse on a more galloping track. He's been running in decent races and I just feel 10/1 is too big to leave for all there are a couple of slight concerns. I'm putting my neck on the line and this will guarantee that he'll be dire but even in this 6 runner field, I don't think he'll be last (as the market suggests) by any means. 3.25 Doncaster - 2pts win Grey Missile @ 7/2 (Bet365) Jeremy Scott's horses are in form and he wouldn't be sending his horses up to Doncaster today for the fresh air alone. I was tempted by one of his other runners but not sure he's much value given he's shown a few issues in his races. This horse isn't totally bombproof but I am keen on his chances. He's only run eight times in his career to date but shaped well in some novice hurdles to suggest that this mark isn't bad. He ran a sound 11l 4th in October off this mark of 110 over hurdles after nearly two years off the track so there's evidence to suggest he's fairly treated and he had a tough task on his chasing debut last time out. The winner has subsequently earned a rating of 145, with the 2nd and 3rd rated in the mid-120s so it was no surprise that my selection could only manage 4th at Taunton. It was also his chase debut so it wasn't too bad an effort. He looked like he'd improve for it having jumped a little cautiously (and made one bad error at 2nd last). With improvement likely, added to the fact that better ground should help and a return to a left-handed track also likely in his favour, I really think he'll take some beating. His last four starts have come at right-handed courses but I'm just not sure it's ideal for him. He's hung left in the past and jumped left at times last time. He didn't seem at ease going round the bends and a more galloping track is what he wants as well. Taking all of that into consideration, so long as he jumps adequately, he's more than capable of getting involved off this mark as he's dropped in grade. He makes even more appeal when factoring in the opposition who largely have questions to answer themselves. Should have improvement in him which cannot be said by some of these and he should be winning off 110 sooner rather than later.

[Aidymac]

Re: Jumps Racing - Wednesday 9th January *Ceepeegee > Ludlow 1:20 > WIN @ 7/1 Bet365 BOG* Won around this time last year, which is something I always look for over the jumps. Back down to it's last winning mark now, which was 97, where it won easily over 3m 1f. This is shorter but trip is no problem for this horse. Hard to know with the Tizzard's because their horses can be very hit or miss, but when they ready one they seldom leave it behind. Stepping down in trip, and a lower mark, it should have a good shout in a small field here. Yard is in good order aswell.