Liscarroll 22

[Liscarroll]

I was working on an Elo rating-based system for tennis yesterday when I came across some interesting reading that I thought would be interesting to apply to football. Liscarroll 22 is a system based upon the use of Elo ratings to determine scoring probabilities, which are then run through a Poisson grid to arrive at match outcome probabilities and value odds for the Draw No Bet markets. Staking is based on full-fat Kelly Criterion, so I'll probably lose it all today ;) [TABLE=width: 600]

[TR] [TD]Tuesday, 1st January 2013 [/TD] [TD=align: right]Odds [/TD] [TD=align: right]Stake [/TD] [TD=align: right]Score [/TD] [TD=align: right]Return [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]West Brom v Fulham[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.96[/TD] [TD=align: right]5.32[/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Watford v Charlton[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.75 [/TD] [TD=align: right]4.86[/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Swindon v Portsmouth[/TD] [TD=align: right]5.15[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.60[/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Manchester City v Stoke[/TD] [TD=align: right]10.00[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.83[/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Swansea v Aston Villa[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.70[/TD] [TD=align: right]6.02[/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Tottenham v Reading[/TD] [TD=align: right]9.20[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.92[/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]West Ham v Norwich[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.98[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.90[/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Crystal Palace v Wolves[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.30[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.09[/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Total[/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right]34.54[/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Profit/Loss[/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right]-34.54[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Liscarroll]

Re: Liscarroll 22 [TABLE=width: 600]

[TR] [TD]Tuesday, 1st January 2013 [/TD] [TD=align: right]Odds [/TD] [TD=align: right]Stake [/TD] [TD=align: right]Score [/TD] [TD=align: right]Return [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]West Brom v Fulham[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.96[/TD] [TD=align: right]5.32[/TD] [TD=align: right]1-2[/TD] [TD=align: right]15.75[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Watford v Charlton[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.75[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.86[/TD] [TD=align: right]3-4[/TD] [TD=align: right]18.23[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Swindon v Portsmouth[/TD] [TD=align: right]5.15[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.60[/TD] [TD=align: right]5-0[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Manchester City v Stoke[/TD] [TD=align: right]10.00[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.83[/TD] [TD=align: right]3-0[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Swansea v Aston Villa[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.70[/TD] [TD=align: right]6.02[/TD] [TD=align: right]2-2[/TD] [TD=align: right]6.02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Tottenham v Reading[/TD] [TD=align: right]9.20[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.92[/TD] [TD=align: right]3-1[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]West Ham v Norwich[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.98[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.90[/TD] [TD=align: right]2-1[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Crystal Palace v Wolves[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.30[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.09[/TD] [TD=align: right]3-1[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Total[/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right]34.54[/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right]39.99[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Profit/Loss (after commission) [/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right]+4.26[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Cumulative Statistics[/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Total Settled Bets[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Average Winning Odds[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.36[/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Strike Rate[/TD] [TD=align: right]28.57%[/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Average Yield Per Bet (after comm.)[/TD] [TD=align: right]12.34%[/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Gutted that Swansea got that late equalizer, but any day that ends in profit is a good day all the same :)