Systems and backing at true value

[Liscarroll]

Now I'm sure most of us know what I'm about to write here, but I hope it's useful for newbies to betting and systems alike. So you've developed your own betting system and you're calculating your own probabilities for, say, the outcomes of football matches. Let's imagine there's a theoretical match coming up between Holby and Bradfield. You've calculated Bradfield's chances of winning at 20% and converted this to odds of 5.00. You head off to Betfair to place your bet and see Bradfield are currently 5.00 there too. Seems a no brainer then. You back Bradfield at 5.00, yes? NO! If you back teams at odds equivalent to their probability you will eventually lose all of your money. This is because you don't have enough margin built in to recover losses in other bets, so your bank gradually declines until you have nothing left. So what odds should you try to back Bradfield at? It's going to vary depending on the specifics of your system, but in my experience you need to add 5% on to your calculated odds to maintain your bank, 10% to see slow but steady growth and 15% for *good* growth. Your system will still have its ups and downs, but if your calculations are accurate (the hard part!) it will be reflected in your bank balance over time. So in our example, you wouldn't have taken Bradfield at 5.00. The minimum odds to ensure growth would have been 5.50 and 5.75, if you could get it, would have been the ideal. Remember: true value isn't getting the odds your system calculates, but the odds your system calculates plus 10%.

[rook]

Re: Systems and backing at true value Well....er......thankyou