Liscarroll 20

[Liscarroll]

(This system is called Liscarroll 20 as it's my 20th 'from scratch' system.) The aim of the system is to derive 'Draw No Bet' selections. It's Poisson based, with subsequent adjustments made for relative team strength and home advantage. The resulting calculations are then used to generate my own odds and compare these against Betfair to identify value bets. I estimate my system chooses the same favourite as the exchange in around 95% of cases. I place up to 10 bets at a time and after each bath recalculate my stakes (min £2, max 5%) based on the new bank. I've been running the system on Betfair for just over week. I've placed 155 bets, achieving a strike rate of 41.23% and average odds of 2.68. This gives a productivity rating of 110.50 which, under my modelling and staking plan, gives a 50% chance of a 100k profit over 12 months. However, 155 bets isn't a statistically reliable sample so this should be regarded as system still in the testing phase. I'll be placing 3 sets of bets on Boxing day - pre 1pm and earlier kick-offs, 3pm kick-offs and 5pm and later kick-offs. I'll post my selections and outcomes here, together with my overall updated strike rate and average odds achieved.

[Liscarroll]

Re: Liscarroll 20 [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500]

[TR] [TD]Dundee United[/TD] [TD]St Johnstone[/TD] [TD]1.60[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Nottingham Forest[/TD] [TD]Leeds United[/TD] [TD]3.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Charlton[/TD] [TD]Ipswich[/TD] [TD]1.75[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dagenham & Red.[/TD] [TD]Southend[/TD] [TD]2.12[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Gillingham[/TD] [TD]Barnet[/TD] [TD]1.14[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Nuneaton[/TD] [TD]Tamworth[/TD] [TD]1.85[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] So these are my first batch of selections for the day. I'll post more when I've placed my bets on the 3pm kick-offs.