Jump Racing Thursday 20th

[cpo]

Going to follow Paul Nicholls at Exeter tomorrow. 1.20 Exeter Domatline 3pts win @ 7/4 PaddyPower This looks a good opportunity for this horse to get his first win of the season after a couple of good 2nds. He ran a good race last time out in pretty testing ground at Haydock where he finished a good 2^nd behind Kumbeshwar. He is only a 5 year old and looks to be improving with every run. He has only had 10 career starts resulting in 4 wins and 3 placed efforts. This will be his 5^th run over fences and it looks a good opportunity to get his 5^th career win. Paul Nicholls continues in great form and he a good record at the track. Ruby Walsh is also in good form at the moment and has an even better record at the track with a 42% strike rate. All 3 horses in the race can be given a chance but I think there are reasons to take on his opponents. Lidar ran a great race last time out to finish 2^nd but I would have my doubts over him on the ground as connections have kept him away from testing conditions throughout his career. Only 3 times has this horse raced on soft ground and all 3 runs came in his first 5 career starts. This will be his 28^th start so you have to doubt him on the heavy ground. He is the highest rated horse in the field but I doubt whether he is the best equipped to cope with the conditions. Snap Tie is opposable on the back of his recent return to action. Usually this horse is so good returning from a break with a brilliant record but he ran poorly on his return to action this season so I would have my doubts over his well-being. He should have no problems with the ground but he has clearly had his fair share of problems and I am happy to take him on here with Domtaline. 1.50 Exeter Ghizao 3pts win @ 9/4 PaddyPower I am quite happy to ignore 3 of the runners in this field and concentrate on the top in the betting. The Sawyer is surely not good enough to win this even though he loves heavy ground. Dan Breen is solid enough but will struggle to live with the top 2 if they run to form. Hey Big Spender is interesting but he is better over further these days and I believe he is being lined up for the Welsh National so this might just be a case of getting a run into him before that race. Wishful Thinking was pulled from the Paddy Power last week because of the ground but he has plenty of form on soft ground so I don’t think it will be a problem. This is not as competitive as the Paddy Power so maybe that is why they are happy to let him run here. He was an impressive winner last time out at Cheltenham where he won by 18 lengths but he will find this much tougher. His jumping at times is quite suspect and a few mistakes in this race tomorrow could cost him. Philip Hobbs is another trainer I can never get right and I don’t really like backing his horses. Wishful Thinking is without doubt the best horse in this race but I am happy to take him on with Ghizao. Ghizao goes for Paul Nicholls here and as I have already said, he has a great record at the track and is in form. Ghizao had a wind operation during the summer and returned with a good performance to win a 3 runner race at Kempton by 33 lengths. He followed that with an excellent 3^rd in the Amlin chase in similarly heavy ground. He did finish 3^rd of 4 but he was only a head behind For Non Stop who came into the race on the back of a brilliant performance in the Old Roan Chase where he hammered Wishful Thinking by 23 lengths. Ghizao was highly unflavoured by the weights in that race and he did well to get as close as he did to Captain Chris and For Non Stop. I think he will find this assignment easier and with the ground posing no problems, I fancy him to get the better of Wishful Thinking.

[beaker1]

Re: Jump Racing Thursday 20th Levy Board Peterborough Chase (Grade 2) – Exeter,1-50 Thursday 20th December The fact that all of the last ten winners had previously recorded a victory in Grade 2 company or higher suggests that proven form tends to go a long way here. Only two of this year’s field can boast these credentials with Wishfull Thinking and Ghizao both having recorded Grade 2 successes during their novice chasing days. It therefore seems foolish to look past these two given the strength of the trend and the improvement the others will need to find. This idea is supported as eight of the last ten winners had run in a Grade 2 or higher on their most recent visit to the racecourse. Ghizao ticks this box in this year’s field courtesy of his third-placed finish in the Amlin 1965 Chase at Ascot in November. Wishfull Thinking did run in a Grade 2 on his seasonal reappearance in October, finishing second behind For Non Stop at Aintree but was subsequently given a confidence-boosting win in a Class 2 event at Cheltenham. So whilst a recent run at this level is preferable, Wishfull Thinking seems to suit the profile for two previous exceptions Le Roi Miguel and Jair Du Cochet .Race fitness is often significant at this time of year, although more than two runs during the current season is a negative for potential winners of this race. Nine of the last ten winners had run twice at the most during the season, only Impek having defied this trend following a summer jumping campaign. However, with all of this year’s field matching this profile it looks as though other patterns will prove more useful when making a selection. The Grade 2 status of the Peterborough Chase gives an indication as to the quality of horses that usually take part. This can be quantified by noting that seven of the last ten winners had an official rating of 155 or higher. Only David Pipe’s Dan Breen and Bob Buckler’s The Sawyer miss the cut this year with official ratings of 147 and 113 respectively. This means that both have something to find although the fact that Tartak won this race in 2010 off 147 gives some hope to supporters of Dan Breen. Another factor in the favour of Dan Breen is that six of the last ten winners were six or seven-year-olds and he is the sole representative from this group. Both Hey Big Spender and Wishfull Thinking will be attempting to become the third nine-year-old winner in the last decade and Ghizao will be running for those a year younger. Whilst a victory for The Sawyer on Thursday, would be the first twelve-year-old winner of the race since Sabin Du Loir’s victory in 1991. Shortlist Ghizao Conclusion GHIZAO ticks almost all of the boxes in terms of trends, only missing out on the full house on the basis of age. The Paul Nicholls stable has saddled three seconds in the last six years as well as Le Roi Miguel who won this race in 2004. Although he finished third last time he was only beaten four lengths by the winner in extremely testing conditions at Ascot. He looks likely to improve for slightly better ground and with Ruby Walsh coming over for a big mid-week ride; it would seem likely that he will be involved at the business end of the race. Wishfull Thinking’s performance at Cheltenham confirmed the ability that connections had in him during his novice chasing campaign. The 2m 3½f trip should suit given that he has recorded three Graded victories over this trip in the past. He looks to be in good form and making more use of him last time seemed to suit. He will be trying to give Philip Hobbs his first victory in the race and if he turns in a similar effort to last time, he would be the most likely challenger to Ghizao.