Flat Racing - 20th of December

[robertob]

18.30 Kempton: Brimstone Hill @ 4/1 Bet365 Brimstone Hill was pretty unlucky in his most recent start here at Kempton. He was in the right position turning for home but found himself suddenly locked on the inside two furlongs out, that cost some momentum as he had to switch and find back the balance while the eventual winner and second kicked away in that moment and gained a big advantage through that. When finally in the clear and balanced Brimstone Hill finished like a train and still finished a very fine 3rd. This form works out very well and I assume that despite another raise of his handicap mark by 1lb he is still very well handicapped at the moment. The probably crucial question regarding his chance in this race tomorrow is only if he stays the trip as he step up to 12f for the first time. His sire is a sprinter, he produced some decent horses over longer distances though and there is some stamina on the dam side. Also the way he finishes his races suggests he has a good chance to stay the trip. 19.00 Kempton: Key Ambition @ 12/1 Bet365 Thought Key Ambition ran a hugely impressive race at Lingfield lto. He had a wide draw to overcome, was outpaced soon after the start and outpaced turning for home, in addition he really had to turn very wide, in fact widest of all, but stayed on very well on the outside eventually in a manner of a horse that may have a bit in hand over a distance further than 6f. So the step up in trip to 7f will clearly be beneficial on evidence of that run and also the pedigree is pointing into that direction with his sire having been a Group winner over that sort of trip. He's down to a very handy mark now, and his last two runs were eye-catching, even though the most recent one really proved that he is poised to win when finally stepping up in trip (one try over 7f at Southwell so far, I ignore that run though, as Southwell form nor comparable with the other AW tracks). Think 12/1 is a massive price here.

[fintron]

Re: Flat Racing - 20th of December 2.00 Lingfield Warfare - drop back to 7f should suit and J. Spencer takes over from A. Ryan in the saddle which is a massive plus for Guy Reed's horse. Drawn on the inside in a race lacking pace, hoping Spencer steals this from the front. 11/2 3.30 Lingfield Silken Thoughts - ran some good races on turf in the summer, has been hurdling since and disappointed, but comes back onto the flat on a fair mark, and this looks a weak race for the grade. Booking of Spencer by the John Berry operation looks a positive. 12/1