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Value Home Picks

theonepunter

By theonepunter
in Betting Systems & Strategy

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theonepunter

theonepunter

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Re: Value Home Picks All odds from Pinnacle and all selections are for home wins. Stake: Odds: B'burn vs Brighton £ 5.00 2.56 Leeds vs M'Boro £ 5.00 2.72 Crawley vs Shef utd £ 5.00 2.65 Crewe vs B'Mouth £ 5.00 3.45 Doncaster vs MK-D £ 5.00 3.38 Walsall vs Colchester £ 5.00 2.19 Yeovil vs Oldham £ 5.00 2.54 Newcastle vs QPR £ 5.00 2.09 West Ham vs Everton £ 5.00 3.08 Stakes are 5% of bank.

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theonepunter

theonepunter

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Re: Value Home Picks Stake:

Odds:

B'burn vs Brighton £ 5.00 2.56 (Postponed - Void)

Leeds vs M'Boro £ 5.00 2.72 (FT: 2:1)

Crawley vs Shef utd £ 5.00 2.65 (FT: 0:2)

Crewe vs B'Mouth £ 5.00 3.45 (Postponed - Void) Doncaster vs MK-D £ 5.00 3.38 (Postponed - Void)

Walsall vs Colchester £ 5.00 2.19 (FT: 1:0)

Yeovil vs Oldham £ 5.00 2.54 (FT: 4:1)

Newcastle vs QPR £ 5.00 2.09 (FT: 1:0)

West Ham vs Everton £ 5.00 3.08 (FT: 1:2)

Bank: £117.70 Profit: +£17.70 Yield: 70.80%

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theonepunter

theonepunter

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Re: Value Home Picks (6 bets + 70% yield)

Looks promising - well done on finding this angle. Would be interested in knowing which website you use to glean the goals scored / conceded information from.
I use flashscores and use their last 6 home games for the home team and the last 6 away games for the teams playing away.
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theonepunter

theonepunter

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Re: Value Home Picks (6 bets + 59% yield) All odds from Pinnacle Fixtures for boxing day Fixture: Stake: Odds: QPR vs WBA £5.89 2.41 Stoke vs Liverpool £5.89 3.57 N. Forest vs Leeds £5.89 2.24 Burnley vs Derby £5.89 2.35 Hull vs Leicester £5.89 2.69 Leyton Orient vs Swindon £5.89 3.96 Shrewsbury vs Notts Country £5.89 2.96 :cheers Have a good christmas fellow punters

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theonepunter

theonepunter

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Re: Value Home Picks (6 bets + 59% yield) Fixture: Stake: Odds:

QPR vs WBA £5.89 2.41 (FT: 1:2)

Stoke vs Liverpool £5.89 3.57 (FT 3:1) N. Forest vs Leeds £5.89 2.24 (FT: 4:2) Burnley vs Derby £5.89 2.35 (FT: 2:0)

Hull vs Leicester £5.89 2.69 (FT: 0:0)

Leyton Orient vs Swindon £5.89 3.96 (Postponed - Void)

Shrewsbury vs Notts Country £5.89 2.96 (FT: 2:2)

Staked: £35.34 Profit +£11.41 Overall: Bank: £129.11 Profit: +£29.11 Yield: 44%

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theonepunter

theonepunter

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Re: Value Home Picks (12 bets + 44% yield) All odds from Pinnacle for weekend. Fixture: Stake: Odds: Norwich vs Man City £6.45 6.48 Sunderland vs Spurs £6.45 3.83 Reading vs West Ham £6.45 2.87 N. Forest vs Crystal Palace £6.45 2.27 Bristol City vs P'boro £6.45 2.38 Burnley vs Leicester £6.45 3.27 Charlton vs Derby £6.45 2.48 Carlisle vs Bury £6.45 2.21 Stevenage vs Notts County £6.45 2.56 Leyton Orient vs Walsall £6.45 2.19 Portsmouth vs Yeovil £6.45 2.26

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anon

anon

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Re: Value Home Picks (12 bets + 44% yield) Might be me just having a senior moment :$......Getting them all too often these days I'm afraid! At a bit of a loss re Bristol City v Peterborough being a selection. Could you possible walk me through it to see why I don't get it?

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Machine

Machine

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Re: Value Home Picks (12 bets + 44% yield) There does seem to be some confusion :unsure If he's using the FD rating system based on the regression formula of y = 1.56x + 46.47 to get the win probabilities (which according to the odds v ratings range that were put up, he is) he should be taking the rating from the last 6 games played and not the last 6 home and the last 6 away ( Which would give a completely different regression formula and different teams) This weekends to be checked for correct odds should be :- [TABLE=width: 406]

[TR] [TD]PR[/TD] [TD]ASTON VILLA[/TD] [TD]WIGAN[/TD] [TD=align: right]-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]PR[/TD] [TD]NORWICH[/TD] [TD]MANCHESTER CITY[/TD] [TD=align: right]-2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]PR[/TD] [TD]QPR[/TD] [TD]LIVERPOOL[/TD] [TD=align: right]-2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]ECH[/TD] [TD]BOLTON[/TD] [TD]BIRMINGHAM[/TD] [TD=align: right]-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]ECH[/TD] [TD]BURNLEY[/TD] [TD]LEICESTER[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]ECH[/TD] [TD]CHARLTON[/TD] [TD]DERBY[/TD] [TD=align: right]-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]ECH[/TD] [TD]MIDDLESBROUGH[/TD] [TD]BLACKPOOL[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]EL1[/TD] [TD]CARLISLE[/TD] [TD]BURY[/TD] [TD=align: right]-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]EL1[/TD] [TD]PORTSMOUTH[/TD] [TD]YEOVIL[/TD] [TD=align: right]-2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]EL2[/TD] [TD]ALDERSHOT TOWN[/TD] [TD]TORQUAY[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]EL2[/TD] [TD]EXETER[/TD] [TD]BARNET[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]FC[/TD] [TD]HEREFORD[/TD] [TD]NEWPORT COUNTY[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]FC[/TD] [TD]NUNEATON[/TD] [TD]ALFRETON[/TD] [TD=align: right]-2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]FC[/TD] [TD]STOCKPORT[/TD] [TD]AFC TELFORD UTD[/TD] [TD=align: right]-1[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] The original is HERE if you want to read it. Then again its his variation of a system he can do as he likes with it, and good luck to him :ok
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theonepunter

theonepunter

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Re: Value Home Picks (12 bets + 44% yield)

Fixture: Stake: Odds:

Norwich vs Man City £6.45 6.48 (FT: 3:4) QPR vs L'Pool £6.45 4.07 (FT: 0:3) Aston Villa vs Wigan £6.45 2.48 (FT: 0:3) Sunderland vs Spurs £6.45 3.83 (FT: 1:2)

Reading vs West Ham £6.45 2.87 (FT: 1:0)

N. Forest vs Crystal Palace £6.45 2.27 (FT: 2:2)

Middlesborough vs B'Pool £6.45 2.27 (FT: 4:2) Bristol City vs P'boro £6.45 2.38 (FT: 4:2)

Burnley vs Leicester £6.45 3.27 (FT: 0:1) Charlton vs Derby £6.45 2.48 (FT: 1:1)

Carlisle vs Bury £6.45 2.21 (FT: 2:1)

Stevenage vs Notts County £6.45 2.56 (Postponed - Void)

Leyton Orient vs Walsall £6.45 2.19 (FT: 2:1)

Portsmouth vs Yeovil £6.45 2.26 (FT: 1:2)

Profit: -£15.11 Overall: Bank: £114 Profit: £14 Games come quick and fast during this festive period so we should be able to see how this system does soon.

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theonepunter

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Re: Value Home Picks (12 bets + 44% yield) Selections for new years day Fixture: Stake: Odds: West Ham vs Norwich £5.70 2.20 Saints vs Arsenal £5.70 5.40 B'ham vs Cardiff £5.70 3.15 P'boro vs Barnsley £5.70 2.28 Shef Wed vs Burnley £5.70 2.36 Brentford vs Bournemouth £5.70 2.43 Doncaster vs Shef Utd £5.70 2.88 Scunthorpe vs Oldham £5.70 2.52 Yeovil vs Leyton Orient £5.70 2.36 Bury vs Tranmere £5.70 2.8 Walsall vs Stevenage £5.70 2.36 Notts County vs MK Dons £5.70 2.93 Lets hope for a better round of football :hope

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theonepunter

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Re: Value Home Picks (24 bets + 9% yield)

Fixture: Stake: Odds:

West Ham vs Norwich £5.70 2.20 (FT: 2:1)

Saints vs Arsenal £5.70 5.40 (FT: 1:1) B'ham vs Cardiff £5.70 3.15 (FT: 0:1)

P'boro vs Barnsley £5.70 2.28 (FT: 2:1)

Shef Wed vs Burnley £5.70 2.36 (FT: 0:2) Brentford vs Bournemouth £5.70 2.43 (FT: 0:0) Doncaster vs Shef Utd £5.70 2.88 (FT 2:2) Scunthorpe vs Oldham £5.70 2.52 (FT: 2:2)

Yeovil vs Leyton Orient £5.70 2.36 (FT: 3:0)

Bury vs Tranmere £5.70 2.8 (FT: 0:1)

Walsall vs Stevenage £5.70 2.36 (FT: 1:0)

Notts County vs MK Dons £5.70 2.93 (FT: 1:2)

Profit: -£15.05 Overall: Bank: £98.96 Profit: -£1.05 I'm going to make some changes to the system which are to just stick to the full rules of goal supremacy and only use the last 6 matches and will not try any variation and also will include League 2 and the Conference in the next selections.

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senator69

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Re: Value Home Picks (36 bets + in the red)

Fixture: Stake: Odds:

I'm going to make some changes to the system which are to just stick to the full rules of goal supremacy and only use the last 6 matches and will not try any variation and also will include League 2 and the Conference in the next selections.

NOOOOOOOOOO Don't change your system. It's very great & profitable. But only a small note: "select the line but BET only odds less than 2.33" look at your tips; 11 from 14 tips with odds 2.3 and less than go to WIN.... yeild : 173%

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theonepunter

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Re: Value Home Picks (36 bets + in the red)

It's very very good system and gilt-edged... please continue it (But only for odds 2.3 and less) Go to beat the Bookie...
Odds above 2.3 to a certain level has also been correct I will implement an odds limit for future selections and keep the way I select games the same.
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theonepunter

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Re: Value Home Picks (36 bets + in the red) From the start if I used the odds limit from the selections above than 79% yield would have been achieved with a strike rate of 80%. This information does look promising however I have to take into consideration that this is a very small data range and therefore will have to wait to see the true profitability of the odds limit and still trying to obtain value. I still want to introduce more leagues into my system and with the FA cup this weekend I will do that. No league 1 games qualify this week so the weekend games will be League 2 and the Conference which will be able to see if the system works on them systems as well.

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Eivissa44

Eivissa44

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Re: Value Home Picks (36 bets + in the red) I have been following this and Senator beat me to suggesting a odd limit and the selections in that range have been good. Are you going to go with the original thought of home/away or stick to last 6 games? with the odd limit in place.

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theonepunter

theonepunter

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Re: Value Home Picks (36 bets + in the red)

I have been following this and Senator beat me to suggesting a odd limit and the selections in that range have been good. Are you going to go with the original thought of home/away or stick to last 6 games? with the odd limit in place.
I'm going to follow what I did originally with the addition of the odds limit.
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theonepunter

theonepunter

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Re: Value Home Picks (36 bets + in the red)

Fixture: Stake: Odds:

Tamworth vs Nuneaton £4.95 2.36 (FT: 2:1)

Profit: +6.73

Overall: Bank: £105.69 Profit: +5.69 Yield: 2.5% This game would have been in the new odds limit anyway but it there's nothing like a good start when adding new leagues to your system. Back into the profit it is.

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theonepunter

theonepunter

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Re: Value Home Picks (37 bets + 2.5% yield) All odds from Pinnacle Fixture: Stake: Odds: York vs Exeter £5.28 2.28 Alfreton vs Dartford £5.28 2.39 I did think there would be more games that qualify into the system but that was not the case. Obviously the next selections will included PL, Championship and league 1 but most are playing in the FA Cup this weekend.

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