Jumps Racing - Tuesday 18th December

[Bathtime For Rupert]

1.40 Catterick - 2pts win Kent Street @ 13/2 (Bet365) Sue Smith's runner has failed to complete on three out of five runs over fences but although he came to grief at the first flight last time, I think it would be unfair to suggest that he can't jump as he put in an assured round two starts ago at Carlisle when running pretty well. Just looked like the trip was on the sharp side and that's something backed up by his pedigree which looks stacked with stamina. A step up in trip looked the way forward, so it was interesting that he was well-backed into favouritism last time out over this c&d. This suggests that connections believe this will unlock the door and I'm willing to give him another chance based on his penultimate effort where he barely made any semblance of an error. Definitely one of the more interesting/unexposed types in the field and given I expect him to relish the trip, should he stay on his feet, I'd rather be on him than any other horse in the field. Worth a solid bet at the prices. 3.00 Folkestone - 2pts win Bollin Tahini @ 10/1 (Bet365) I personally can't fathom the short price on the favourite here who I don't believe will relish a 2m4f slog on heavy ground but I could be wrong. However, I'll let that one win at 7/4 and of the others, it's Neil King's runner who interests me. His first five starts in his career were fairly promising, suggesting he'd win a race or two, but went to pot in two starts over hurdles subsequently (albeit in novice events). It's clear he needs low level handicaps but he didn't really go with much purpose or jump very well in those starts at Taunton and Doncaster. However, off the back of an eight-month absence he looked a great deal more professional at Doncaster last month. He jumped much better and travelled up quite nicely towards the business end of the race. Eventually backed out of it to finish 7th of 13 but was by no means disgraced and shaped so much better. With fitness on his side now, he can go well if building on that. He traded at 8.6 in running which shows how well he went for a long way considering he went off at 33/1 and that proves he ran a lot more positively than before. This is a bad race and he's been dropped 3lbs for that and I expect him to be there or thereabouts if not falling back out of form. 3.30 Folkestone - 3pts win Sea Cadet @ 7/2 (Ladbrokes) I really fancy Laura Mongan's charge in the finale at Folkestone today, and potentially ever, and hopefully I can sign off with fond memories of the track! He ran well, if possibly flattered in an all-weather bumper last time, but it's his chase form which is mostly encouraging for me, for all that flat run suggested he is in decent heart. Even though he hasn't really threatened over fences of late, he's been beaten by some decent and/or well-handicapped types and still finished 3rd on his two most recent starts and they came in better races than this. He's the joint highest rated runner in here with a mark of 92 but was beaten by horses off 112 and 108 recently so has been facing a better calibre of horses. The 19l winner on his last start at Kempton subsequently was a close 2nd off 14lbs higher next time so the form looks strong and I don't personally understand how he's not favourite in here ahead of a maiden who was beaten by a perennial loser last time out. We shall see, however.

[Aidymac]

Re: Jumps Racing - Tuesday 18th December *Mr Valentino > Folkestone 3:30 > WIN @ 9/1 Bet365 BOG* Only 2 pounds higher than it's last winning mark now, and although was 3rd of 5 last time out, it wasn't a terrible run and now that they are reaching for cheekpieces it may being improvement out of the horse. Lawney Hill is brilliant at improving horses, she is notorious for it, trip and ground are fine for the horse and the yard is in good nick.