betfair martigale

[cjackson525]

Hi has anyone tryed a martigale system on betfair for laying the fav to either win or place i am thinking of trying it any adviceplease G

[jayalexander]

Re: betfair martigale Martingale is stupid. Don't try it.

[cjackson525]

Re: betfair martigale I know the risks but i have been watching the results and only about 50 percent of favorites win and about 70 percent place

[The Saint]

I can't remember exactly when it was or the exact number but someone will I'm sure. I think the record for consecutive favs is 16... Jay is right - psychologically that system would be a nightmare...

[Machine]

Re: betfair martigale Consecutive losing runs for Favourites from 144,362 races between 1991-2010 [TABLE=width: 136]

[TR] [TD]1 Loser[/TD] [TD=align: right]11161[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2 Losers[/TD] [TD=align: right]7277[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3 Losers[/TD] [TD=align: right]4786[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]4 Losers[/TD] [TD=align: right]3201[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]5 Losers[/TD] [TD=align: right]1980[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]6 Losers[/TD] [TD=align: right]1327[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]7 Losers[/TD] [TD=align: right]939[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]8 Losers[/TD] [TD=align: right]586[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]9 Losers[/TD] [TD=align: right]379[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]10 Losers[/TD] [TD=align: right]245[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]11 Losers[/TD] [TD=align: right]168[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]12 Losers[/TD] [TD=align: right]138[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]13 Losers[/TD] [TD=align: right]71[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]14 Losers[/TD] [TD=align: right]51[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]15 Losers[/TD] [TD=align: right]32[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]16 Losers[/TD] [TD=align: right]28[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]17 Losers[/TD] [TD=align: right]15[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]18 Losers[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]19 Losers[/TD] [TD=align: right]9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]20 Losers[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]21 Losers[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]22 Losers[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]23 Losers[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]24 Losers[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]25 Losers[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]26 Losers[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]27 Losers[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]28 Losers[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]29+ Losers[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] :ok

[3 legs and a wheel]

Re: betfair martigale Only 1 in 3 (approximately) of all favourites win, not 50%, as you suggest in your post. Therefore, I can only assume that you are not planning to lay all favourites. If the strike rate of the favourites that you are planning to lay is 50%, as you state in your post, then I can only presume that the average Betfair odds of your selections is around 2.0. If this is the case you can expect to encounter at least 1 losing run of at least 10 over the course of 1,000 bets. Therefore, if you bet the minimum of £2 per bet, then the stake of your 10^th losing bet will be £1,024. If you have an infinite bank and an infinite amount of time, then Martingale will always win. Do you have an infinite amount of money and an infinite amount of time? I have personal experience of a company and an individual who each lost in excess of £300,000 using the Martingale system. Charles Wells, of the man who broke the bank of Monte Carlo fame, broke the bank on several occasions in 1894. He later admitted that he used Martingale and that he was extremely lucky. Do you feel lucky? By the way, he died a pauper. If you have a system that wins without using Martingale to recover your losses, then I would suggest that you use it in this form. If it is a loss-making system without Martingale, then I would suggest that you bin it. I'm with Jay and the Saint on this one. However, whatever you choose to do, I wish you every success and please keep us informed of your exploits.

[Machine]

Re: betfair martigale Consecutive winners during same period and races [TABLE=width: 136]

[TR] [TD]1 Winner[/TD] [TD=align: right]21243[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2 Winners[/TD] [TD=align: right]7255[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3 Winners[/TD] [TD=align: right]2547[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]4 Winners[/TD] [TD=align: right]889[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]5 Winners[/TD] [TD=align: right]305[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]6 Winners[/TD] [TD=align: right]108[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]7 Winners[/TD] [TD=align: right]47[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]8 Winners[/TD] [TD=align: right]11[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]9 Winners[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]10 Winners[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] :ok

[cjackson525]

Re: betfair martigale Like i said i only got 50%from last couple of days im still 50/50 as to weather to try it or not anyone got any good betting plans i have been trying a few last one i tryed was to back fav and back fav to place as insurance but didnt really work anyone made anymoney backing outsiders as i have hit a few 50 -70 in last couple of weeks

[NeilM]

Backing the fav to place only is an interesting approach- but as everyone else has said, you need infinite capital and infinite time. Also you'd need odds of 2.0 or more every single time which is hard to get with favs (unless selectively backing in which case you've got a system anyway which you could just refine). I'd not adopt a Martingale approach not just because of the infinite elements mentioned above but because you need a tremendous amount of luck. A losing run even of six or seven will wipe you out.

[herdygerdy]

Re: betfair martigale martingale is a weird betting system. i know myself it doesnt work but still hasnt stopped me trying it few times. like the other lads said you need serious money to do it. over two grand for cover of ten 2 euro start. in saying that i got 150 up to 2500 1 time and 1800 another same start and few other times but blew it. if i were to give you advice dont do it with horses, if you follow the football go for that it too easy to see your fifth go go down and go on to your next bet on tilt say a place in a 13 horse race. stick to 9 horses or less for backing placers. for 200 you could lay 1.47 or less placers cover of ten 2 euro liability start. less money put in and a bit of craic.

[JayBee66]

Re: betfair martigale Please, anyone reading this thread leave the page immediately. You must never consider a martingale (or its ******* child The Fibonacci) as a sane investment strategy. I see mention of The Martingale on many websites, usually by people with poor grammar and no mathematical knowledge. That simple fact should put you off The Martingale. Take the wheat and chessboard problem as your example. A person was promised anything he wanted and he asked for one grain of wheat on the first square and doubling up on successive squares. The second sqaure gets 2 grains, the third 4 grains and so on. The first row ramps up only to 128 grains on the 8th square. Want to hazard a guess as to how many grains you need on the 64th? For those that can do maths the answer is obviously 2^64. Two little numbers? 2^64 or 2 to the power 64 is 9, 223, 372, 036, 854, 775, 808 (that's over 9 quintillion!!!) A single quintillion is more money than those imbecilic central bankers (probably rhyming slang) have printed in cash but give them time and who knows. In the consecutive runs data above we see that over ten years there were 9 cases of a consecutive run of 19 losses. That's almost one a year. In other words, you have a high probability of hitting 19 consecutive losses sometime during a year, requiring 2^19 (£524,288) to service the folly. Sure there are dumbasses with over half a million to blow but they won't have time to claw back their losses before being hit by another losing streak of 19. "God doesn't play dice" and random events are not predictable. 19 consecutive losses do not result in 19 consecutive wins to "even randomness up". If you do not understand what I have written or you wish to continue this thread by adding a few provisos where a Martingale will work then please do yourself and your cash a favour; find another hobby or addiction to piss your wealth away on. Try crack cocaine. You will end up penniless, as you will through gambling, but you will perceive that you had a better time of it than you did gambling as the final pulse ripples through your body.