theonepunter Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 This system is to bet on Under 2.5 and put the two team in a double. The expected odds from the double will be from 2.00 - 3.00. Generally I will look at leagues which are about 45% or lower for Over 2.5 stats of leagues. Fixtures will be then picked by teams that generally are close together so first vs last of the league won't be picked if it looks like it will be under 2.5 due to the major differences. Fixtures will be picked by looking at there past 5 fixtures, generally as a rule 3/5 of games should be Under 2.5 excluding Continental Championships such as the CL or Europa League. Also it would be favourable if past corresponding fixtures were Under 2.5 but football teams change fast in the World standing so at least 2/5 should be Under 2.5 if they have played each other that many times but it is not a necessity. There will be a 15% staking plan and over time it will decrease if profits are made. This is a paper trial. Starting Bank: £100 [TABLE=width: 500] [TR] [TD]Fixture 1[/TD] [TD]Fixture 2[/TD] [TD]Bookmaker[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Profit[/TD] [TD]Won/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Polonia W. vs Pogon Szczecin[/TD] [TD]Panthrakikos vs AEK[/TD] [TD]Bwin[/TD] [TD]2.59[/TD] [TD]15[/TD] [TD]23.85[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Panserraikos vs Ergotelis[/TD] [TD]Tlemcen vs Belouizdad[/TD] [TD]Bwin[/TD] [TD]2.07[/TD] [TD]15[/TD] [TD]16.05[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] First double is today and the second double fixture 1 is today but fixture 2 is tomorrow afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theonepunter Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Re: Under 2.5 Doubles System [TABLE=width: 500] [TR] [TD]Fixture 1[/TD] [TD]Fixture 2[/TD] [TD]Bookmaker[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Profit[/TD] [TD]Won/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Polonia W. vs Pogon Szczecin (FT: 2:0)[/TD] [TD]Panthrakikos vs AEK (FT: 1:0)[/TD] [TD]Bwin[/TD] [TD]2.59[/TD] [TD]15[/TD] [TD]23.85[/TD] [TD=align: center]:clap[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Panserraikos vs Ergotelis (FT: 2:0)[/TD] [TD]Tlemcen vs Belouizdad (FT 1:1)[/TD] [TD]Bwin[/TD] [TD]2.07[/TD] [TD]15[/TD] [TD]16.05[/TD] [TD=align: center]:clap[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Bank: £139.90 Profit: +£39.90 Yield: 133% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theonepunter Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Re: Under 2.5 Doubles System (2 bets + 133% Yield) [TABLE=width: 500] [TR] [TD]Fixture 1[/TD] [TD]Fixture 2[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Profit[/TD] [TD]Bookmaker[/TD] [TD]Won/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Lille vs Toulouse[/TD] [TD]Ajaccio vs Reims[/TD] [TD]2.51[/TD] [TD]20[/TD] [TD]30.24[/TD] [TD]Bwin[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] First fixture just in time as it kick off now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theonepunter Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Re: Under 2.5 Doubles System (2 bets + 133% Yield) [TABLE=class: cms_table, width: 500] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Fixture 1[/TD] [TD]Fixture 2[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Profit[/TD] [TD]Bookmaker[/TD] [TD]Won/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Lille vs Toulouse[/TD] [TD]Ajaccio vs Reims[/TD] [TD]2.51[/TD] [TD]20[/TD] [TD]30.24[/TD] [TD]Bwin [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 500] [TR] [TD]Fixture 1[/TD] [TD]Fixture 2[/TD] [TD]Bookmaker[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Profit[/TD] [TD]Won/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Lille vs Toulouse (FT: 2:0)[/TD] [TD=align: left]Ajaccio vs Reims (FT: 2:0)[/TD] [TD]Bwin[/TD] [TD]2.51[/TD] [TD]20[/TD] [TD]30.24[/TD] [TD=align: center]:clap[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Bank: £170.14 Profit: +£70.14 Yield: 140% Next selections will be for the French league games taking place on friday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theonepunter Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Re: Under 2.5 Doubles System (2 bets + 133% Yield) Mind the table on the top on the post above as I forgot to take it out while posting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavidAnderson Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Re: Under 2.5 Doubles System (3 bets + 140% Yield) Looking good so far, interesting read! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theonepunter Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 Re: Under 2.5 Doubles System (3 bets + 140% Yield) [TABLE=width: 500] [TR] [TD]Fixture 1[/TD] [TD]Fixture 2[/TD] [TD]Bookmaker[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Profit[/TD] [TD]Won/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]GFCO Ajaccio vs Laval[/TD] [TD]Khazar Lenkoran vs Neftci Baku[/TD] [TD]Bwin[/TD] [TD]3.1[/TD] [TD]25[/TD] [TD]52.5[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Paris FC vs Luzenac[/TD] [TD]Chateauroux vs Clermont[/TD] [TD]Bwin[/TD] [TD]2.51[/TD] [TD]25[/TD] [TD]37.75[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] GFCO Ajaccio vs Laval = French Ligue 2 Khazar Lenkoran vs Neftci Baku = Azerbaijan Premier League Paris FC vs Luzenac = French National Chateauroux vs Clermont = French Ligue 2 All the games are taking place tomorrow on Friday. The French games take place tomorrow evening but the Azerbaijan game takes place mid day tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chikilicuatre Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Re: Under 2.5 Doubles System (3 bets + 140% Yield) Good afternoon, Good job you are doing. Have you any excel that can be shared? Thanks and continued good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theonepunter Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 Re: Under 2.5 Doubles System (3 bets + 140% Yield) [TABLE=width: 500] [TR] [TD]Fixture 1[/TD] [TD]Fixture 2[/TD] [TD]Bookmaker[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Profit[/TD] [TD]Won/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]GFCO Ajaccio vs Laval (FT: 3:1)[/TD] [TD]Khaza Lenkoran vs Neftci Baku (FT: 2:1)[/TD] [TD]Bwin[/TD] [TD]3.1[/TD] [TD]25[/TD] [TD]52.50[/TD] [TD=align: center]:wall[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Paris FC vs Luzenac (In-Play: 1:2)[/TD] [TD]Chateauroux vs Clermont (FT: 0:0)[/TD] [TD]Bwin[/TD] [TD]2.51[/TD] [TD]25[/TD] [TD]37.75[/TD] [TD=align: center]:wall[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] That was a terrible day. Only 1/4 being U2.5 goals. Profit: -£50 Overall Bank: £120.14 Profit: +£20.14 Yield: 5% Weekend games will be up soon, some games haven't been priced up yet so i'm just waiting for that to happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theonepunter Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 Re: Under 2.5 Doubles System (5 bets + 5% Yield) [TABLE=width: 500] [TR] [TD]Fixture 1[/TD] [TD]Fixture 2[/TD] [TD]Bookmaker[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Profit[/TD] [TD]Won/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Asante Kotoko vs All Stars[/TD] [TD]Berekum Arsenal vs King Faisal[/TD] [TD]Mybet[/TD] [TD]2.03[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [TD]18.52[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Nea Salamis vs Ol.Nicosia[/TD] [TD]OFI Crete vs Asteras T.[/TD] [TD]Bwin[/TD] [TD]2.44[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [TD]25.92[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]FK Baku vs Karabakh[/TD] [TD]Kavala vs Dramas[/TD] [TD]Bet365[/TD] [TD]2.12[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [TD]20.16[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Kerkyra vs Panthrakikos[/TD] [TD]AZAL PFC vs Turan[/TD] [TD]Bwin[/TD] [TD]2.49[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [TD]26.82[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] - First double = Ghanian Football league, usually only Bwin and Mybet price up this league but not Bwin this time unless they do it later. Also this is the lowest scoring football league in the world. Only 25% of games are over 2.5 goals. (16th December) - Nea Salamis vs Ol.Nicosia = Cyprus First Division (15th December) - OFI Crete vs Asteras T. = Greece Super League (15th December) - FK Baku vs Karabakh = Azerbaijan PL (15th December morning) - Kavala vs Dramas = Greece FL (16th December) - Kerkyra vs Panthrakikos = Greece Super League (15th December) - AZAL PFC vs Turan = Azerbaijan PL (15th December) Lets hope for a better day from yesterday :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theonepunter Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 Re: Under 2.5 Doubles System (5 bets + 11% Yield) [TABLE=width: 500] [TR] [TD]Fixture 1[/TD] [TD]Fixture 2[/TD] [TD]Bookmakers[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Profit[/TD] [TD]Won/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Asante Kotoko vs All Stars (FT: 1:1)[/TD] [TD]Berekum Arsenal vs King Faisal (FT: 2:1)[/TD] [TD]MyBet[/TD] [TD]2.03[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [TD]18.52[/TD] [TD=align: center]:wall[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Nea Salamis vs Ol.Nicosia (FT: 3:2)[/TD] [TD]OFI Crete vs Asteras T. (FT: 2:0)[/TD] [TD]Bwin[/TD] [TD]2.44[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [TD]25.92[/TD] [TD=align: center]:wall[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]FK Baku vs Karabakh (FT: 0:0)[/TD] [TD]Kavala vs Dramas (FT: 1:2)[/TD] [TD]Bet365[/TD] [TD]2.12[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [TD]20.16[/TD] [TD=align: center]:wall[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Kerkyra vs Panthrakikos (2:0)[/TD] [TD]AZAL PFC vs Turan (FT: 0:0)[/TD] [TD]Bwin[/TD] [TD]2.49[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [TD]26.82[/TD] [TD=align: center]:clap[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] 5/8 matches were Under 2.5 but only 1 double won because all the matches that were Over 2.5 goals were in different doubles. That means unfortunately another day(s) of loss. Profit: -£7.21 Bank: £92.79 Yield: (Just in the red) Overall I know that a different direction is needed with the Under 2.5 matches. So far in all the selections 13/18 selections have been correct which is a 72% strike rate. If I would of done a 7.5% progressive plan (half of the double) but do all those matches as singles I would of been in the red by about 20p. Where a Non-Progressive £10 per bet would have resulted in an £5 profit which is now what I'm going to do which are Single U2.5 goals bets. [TABLE=class: cms_table, width: 500] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v3rn0n Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Re: Under 2.5 Doubles System (5 bets + 11% Yield) That's a shame, cos I do love a good acca..! It all started so well... :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theonepunter Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Re: Under 2.5 Doubles System (5 bets + 11% Yield) That's a shame' date=' cos I do love a good acca..! It all started so well... :([/quote'] I'm actually going to give it one more chance this weekend to get profit as it was just unlucky that the Over 2.5 matches were in different acca's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theonepunter Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 Re: Under 2.5 Doubles System (5 bets + 11% Yield) [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] [TR] [TD]Fixture 1[/TD] [TD]Fixture 2[/TD] [TD]Bookmaker[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Profit[/TD] [TD]Won/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Chamois Niortais v Sedan[/TD] [TD]Maritzburg United v Pretoria University[/TD] [TD]Betvictor[/TD] [TD]2.28[/TD] [TD]20[/TD] [TD]23.60[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Maritzburg United v Pretoria University = South Africa - Today - 17:30 Chamois Niortais v Sedan = France Ligue 2 - Tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theonepunter Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 Re: Under 2.5 Doubles System (9 bets + Just in the red) [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] [TR] [TD]Fixture 1[/TD] [TD]Fixture 2[/TD] [TD]Bookmaker[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Profit[/TD] [TD]Won/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Chamois Niortais vs Sedan (FT: 1:3)[/TD] [TD]Maritzburg vs Pretoria uni (FT: 1:1)[/TD] [TD]Betvictor[/TD] [TD]2.28[/TD] [TD]20[/TD] [TD]23.60[/TD] [TD=align: center]:wall[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Overall: Profit: -£27.21 Bank: £72.79 I found a formula that links strike rate with losing streak. It suggests that the biggest I would get is probably 4 so hopefully its near to an end. The problem as well I think is that ALOT! of leagues are on their winter break so my range of fixtures are limited. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theonepunter Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Re: Under 2.5 Doubles System (9 bets + Just in the red) [TABLE=width: 500] [TR] [TD]Fixture 1[/TD] [TD]Fixture 2[/TD] [TD]Bookmaker[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Profit[/TD] [TD]Won/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Clermont - Auxerre[/TD] [TD]Tours - Angers [/TD] [TD]PaddyPower[/TD] [TD]2.42[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]26.62[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Frejus - Bourg Peronnas[/TD] [TD]Pisa - Avellino[/TD] [TD]Sp'Bet[/TD] [TD]2.28[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]25.08[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Just two doubles for Friday tomorrow. Clermont - Auxerre = French Ligue 2 - 17:45 Tours - Angers = French Ligue 2 - 17:45 Frejus - Bourg Peronnas = French National - 19:00 Pisa - Avellino = Lega Pro C1/B (Italy) - 19:30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theonepunter Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 Re: Under 2.5 System (12 bets + Just in the red) [TABLE=width: 500] [TR] [TD]Fixture 1[/TD] [TD]Fixture 2[/TD] [TD]Bookmaker[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Profit[/TD] [TD]Won/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Clermont - Auxerre (FT: 1:2)[/TD] [TD]Tours - Angers (FT: 1:2)[/TD] [TD]PaddyPower[/TD] [TD]2.42[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]26.62[/TD] [TD=align: center]:@[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Frejus - Bourg Peronnas (FT: 0:1)[/TD] [TD]Pisa - Avellino (0:3)[/TD] [TD]Sp'Bet[/TD] [TD]2.28[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]25.08[/TD] [TD=align: center]:@[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] The worse thing about the fixture that were Over 2.5 goals is that they all scored all there third goal in the last 10 minutes which otherwise would of been a perfect day. Overall: -£49.91 Bank: £50.09 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theonepunter Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 Re: Under 2.5 System (12 bets + Just in the red) Just one bet tomorrow as I'm changing the system to only do singles Liverpool U2.5 goals - £7.50 stake @ odds 2.26 188BET Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theonepunter Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 Re: Under 2.5 System (12 bets + Just in the red) I'm going to leave this thread till January when about 80% of the League's that I normally come from return from their winter break, but i'll still be running the Home Value Picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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