OneTeamInGlasgow Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Hi guys, just thought i'd share my thoughts and seek some advice on a little system i've been trialing these last few months. Basically trying to take advantage of the way your average game goes or i suppose your average close, evenly matched games play out e.g. mostly under 3.5/4.5 goals, first goal around 20-40 mins with a second before the hour mark to make it 1-1 or 2-0. So what i started out doing was a day or so before the match i will back 1-1, 2-1 and 1-2 a click or two higher than when it was sitting and would generally get it matched before KO, if not i'll just take the price approaching KO. From here i would just sit back, watch the game and wait for a goal to go in, hopefully not crazy early but no big deal if it does. So 1-0 say 20 mins in, decision time, possibly lay the 1-1 as 2-0 wipes that out or sit and hope for it to go 1-1 in which case happy days and we're in the driving seat. I've been looking at correct scores for a long time now and really i'm just aiming to have as many options as i can come the tipping point 65 minute mark, where the score as it stands becomes the favourite and starts to drop heavily as oppose to say the 2-0 is the favourite when the strong home team is 1-0 up anytime between 45 and 65 mins. Obvious dangers in this are the game going goal crazy in the first half or first 20/30 minutes even but thankfully i've done enough research or applied enough knowledge to pick the right matches. On the other hand a drab 0-0 or a late 1-0 win can also be a sore one so in recent weeks i've started to lay over 3.5 goals to cover most of my correct score backs as a kind of insurance or even laying heavier with a view to trading out of that bet before the 20 minute mark and look for the game to run it's natural course with a goal or two or three going in. Your taking the risk of losing your lay bet but unless a team goes 3-0 or 4-0 they have to go through your correct scores to get to the over and the hope it doesn't happen too early giving you plenty chances to trade out. I've dabbled in laying the over 3.5 goals before as a straight system as i like the odds of around 70% of matches being under and feel you can increase that with your choice of games (Stoke, Villa, Rafa now at Chelsea etc). However i like the possible big returns in trading the correct scores and using the under 3.5 goals as an effective insurance policy. This is quite the a time consuming system in the fact you actually do have to watch the game or at least receiving updates and constantly laying out but i'm a sucker for punishment and kind of like it! I'd appreciate any thoughts from anyone interested in something like this or from anyone who has tried something similar in the past or present. Cheers for listening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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