BBOTD Saturday 1st December

[cpo]

3.10 Newbury Bobs Worth 1pt win @ 9/2 William Hill This is generally a race for which the younger generation do much better in, with horses aged 9+ having a very poor record in the race. Since 1999 there has only been 1 winner aged 9 or above which was the freak himself, Denman. That rules out plenty of the field if you are looking to follow the trends for the race. Watching previous years of this race, it does appear that those racing handily have been favoured and that could be the case again, especially with the ground being as soft as it is. It is however drying up a little with the ground currently described as soft, good to soft in places. After much deliberation I have decided to side with Bobs Worth. I have been trying all week to get him beat but I just can’t. Bobs Worth is one of the favourites for this year’s Gold Cup and I don’t believe Nicky Henderson would enter him for this race if he weren’t 100% ready to do himself justice. They have left him in the race, which looks a good move as the ground is drying up all the time. He comes here on the back of a great performance at the festival where he won the RSA in good style from First Lieutenant. They pulled well clear of the field that day and Bobs Worth was going away at the finish. The extra distance here should be well within his compass with the only slight worry being the ground. He is 5 from 5 going left handed and has already won at the track when getting up late to beat the classy Cue Card. His career record is impeccable and he has never finished out of the first 3 in 10 races with his worst result coming in the Feltham last year where he finished 3^rd behind Grands Crus and Silviniaco Conti. He followed that with a 2^nd at Ascot where a blunder at the 2^nd last may have cost him victory but he made no mistake at Cheltenham on his latest run. He does meet some potentially well-handicapped rivals here and some horses that have been specifically trained with this race as the target. I do however think Bobs Worth if fully wound up will have too many guns for his rivals. It will take a monumental effort from Tidal Bay if he is to win this and I fancy him up to come up short in his bid to win off top weight and a rating of 166. He may just be vulnerable to younger more progressive legs but I expect him to be staying on at the finish. Teaforthree is one that interested me as he went well for a long time on his return to action. His target is the Welsh National so I reckon he may just need another run to put him spot on and a place is probably best he can hope for. I can’t see The Package winning even though he impressed last time out. He doesn’t win very often and I don’t think he is well handicapped enough to take this. Fruity O’Rooney tempted me but I think he will be vulnerable in the closing stages as he was at the festival in March. Of the bigger priced runners, he is the one I like most. Diamond Harry has gone for me and I couldn’t back him here even though he has a good record here and will handle the ground. Hold on Julio has been trained for the race and had a good prep finishing 3^rd behind Balthazar King. I fancy him to be the biggest threat to Bobs Worth.

[Lodge]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 1st December 13.35 - Towcester - Hazy Tom EW @ 14/1 Bet365 Off to Towcester tomorrow and feel that Richard Woolacott's only runner of the day Hazy Tom will prove better than his re-appearnace earlier in the month. He was gambled on, on his first start for the yard and went off 11/8 fav but unfortunately dissapointed and finished a long way back in 7th. He had looked to have dropped to a very nice mark of 87 considering he was rated 10-15lbs higher a year ago and has been dropped another 4lbs so runs off 83 tomorrow. Also has 5lb allowance of decent claimer Michael Nolan to further ease his burden - He has had 9 rides for the yard resulting in 3 wins and 2 places. Has form in testing ground so the conditions shouldnt cause a problem and hopefully he will relish the step back up in trip to 3m. Has a couple of entries for the next week or so, so hoping he's ready for a big run.