Flat Racing > Monday 19th November

[Aidymac]

*Kingscroft > Wolverhampton 4:30 > WIN @ 7/1 Paddy Power BOG* Light Burst looks too short given it has another 9 pounds on it's back to defy. I am siding with the Mark Johnston horse here, who has two course and distance wins to it's name. It is now back down to 83, only 2 pounds higher than it's win over course and distance back in March. Last time it ran here it was 2nd off a mark of 88 in a good Class 2 handicap behind Nazreef, losing by a short head. A reproduction of that run would see it win here cosily. Record here reads 1-3-1-2, and has to go close off this mark imo.

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing > Monday 19th November 4.00 Wolverhampton Summerinthecity was subject to the usual Ed Giles gamble 2 starts back over 6f around here. Failed to show that much, much better next time out at Goodwood when staying on far too late. Now starts out for new connections on a decent mark with yards apprentice taking off 5lb. The step upto 7f looks a good move and is off interest but wide draw not easy to overcome in competitive field. Cockney Dancer won over CD on penultimate start but failed to build on that effort back on turf on 5lb higher mark running as if something was wrong and that is a concern having been given yet another break. Certainly open to more improvement but comes with obvious risks attached for a yard a little quiet. Fabled City scored last time out at Epsom, didn’t score by much and has gone up a harsh looking 7lb and that race has really not worked out that great neither. Showboating is generally consistent and often travels well and finishes well but is clearly a character and hard to win with and remains 9lb above last winning mark. Restaurateur won last time out around here, and has now won 2 and finished 2^nd on the other 2 occassions so clearly loves this surface. Up 6lb for latest win and could easily go on again today but wide draw not ideal for his run style and might be worth taking on given the rise and wide draw. Lucky Dan has plenty of risks attached aswell but his price reflects that risk and he looks the value in this wide open handicap. He won his penultimate start over CD off a 3lb lower mark was never able to get involved last time out around here over 6f in a race dominated by those that raced prominently so easy enough to excuse that run. Will need a strongly run race and should get that with Fred Willets, Cockney Dancer and Jungle Bay all likely to be up there. 1pt e/w Lucky Dan 18/1 SJ 5.30 Wolverhampton Augustus John hasn’t been seen for nearly 3 years but was in good form prior to that around here, returns on a good mark if he is at all ready but can only be watched. Another that can only be watched is Candelita who hasn’t been seen since being well outclassed at Cheltenham in March prior to winning a weak maiden at Southwell. Opening mark of 64 looks harsh. Badea has gone well last twice, winning comfortably penultimate start, ran well in defeat under penalty 3 days later but shaping as if this mark would perhaps prove beyond him at present and is 1lb higher today. Boa is the other that interests me, he is generally consistent and ran very well in defeat in a claimer before disappointing last time out. This race is easier and 1lb lower today with apprentice taking off a further 5lb but yard on a very quiet spell and on balance looks opposable for win purposes at present. Elliot brings over Silverlord having scrambled home at Dundalk over slightly shorter trip last time out, up 4lb for that and will need to step up again over this longer trip. Yard are in very good form at present and jockey booking of Lee looks a very strong one with him in good form at present. Well drawn aswell. 3pt win Silverlord 10/3 VC