Flat Racing > Wednesday 14th November

[Aidymac]

*Mingun Bell > Southwell 2:50 > WIN @ 9/2 Bet365 BOG* Two time course winner that has also won over course and distance. It is also 100% on fibresand, having won both it's races on this surface. Has been out of form the past while, but a return to this surface is sure to bring out a lot of improvement tomorrow in my opinion. It is only 1 pound higher than when winning here back in July, and it hosed up that day. This is a different animal on this surface so warrants a lot of respect. Ed De Giles animal's also going well in general.

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing > Wednesday 14th November 12.20 Southwell An extremely poor affair and Irish Jugger stands out as a class act in this field. He lost his way with constant foot problems last year but new yard have got him back to something like his best last time out when winning a shade comfortably last time out travelling well, 6lb penalty still makes him look well treated on old form having won off a 2lb higher mark and useful apprentice offsets 5lb of the 6lb penalty so should take all the beating. Manshoor is on a good mark but has been out of sorts recently and yet to try this surface and this is a marked step up in trip. Illdoit has the form in the book to be competitive in this, and step up in trip may bring about some improvement but not seen for 500+ days so best watched. War has a smart pedigree and has been brought over from Ireland for some reason but showed nothing under either codes to date and switch of surface needs to bring about some sharp improvement. Supersticion is interesting for the Fanshawe yard making handicap debut after glimmers of hope in maidens and a seller last time out, on a strict line of form of that seller would leave her needing to find more for this step up in trip and switch of surface but certainly one to keep an eye on. So in a race with a few question marks and a horse that is much better than these on his going day there is a risky bet to be had on a rank outsider and that is Magnitude for the Brian Baugh yard. He has shown enough form on this surface to be competitive at his best, he ultimately caught my eye on a freezing cold in February when he was detached but made plenty of ground up in the closing stages in an Amateur handicap, that was over much shorter and 5lb higher mark. Then caught the eye again when only 2 lengths adrift over a furlong further in March off a 3lb higher mark than todays again doing it all too late. This step up in trip might just be the key to him with age and has a chance to pinch a place at the very least. 0.5pt e/w Magnitude 25/1 2.50 Southwell A really good looking handicap with so much course form to get stuck into. Dubawi Island won his only start to date on this surface in a maiden that form nothing special and has struggled back in handicaps off this mark last twice so return to this surface needs to bring about some improvement again. Dubaianswer hasn’t shown much away from this venue and was last seen winning over CD in February off a 5lb lower mark, bit of a no show when stepped up in trip on return from a break should atleast be sharper for that but wide draw not helpful. Follow The Flag is more than capable of being competitive in this sort of race but his moody character makes him hard to win with and a risky proposition, also probably slightly better over further these days. Desert Creek has returned to form in and amateur and apprentice handicap last time out on Saturday under this jockey, this surface an unknown but handles plenty of cut in the ground which always helps around here so obvious chance although widest draw and step up in trip a niggle. Beautiful Day is 3 from 5 around here, had been largely out of sorts this summer on turf but much better effort last time out at Yarmouth and return to this surface definitely in his favour although AW mark has hardly moved over the summer and still remains 9lb above last winning mark which might be enough to hold him at the moment. Mingun Bell has attracted the usual early doors money from this yard and its obvious to see why, he is 2 from 2 around here and was last seen on this surface destroying rivals in a reasonable race off just a 1lb lower mark. But hasn’t shown much since and comes with obvious risks attached from a yard that are rather boom and bust and struggled for form. Kung Hei Fat Choy perhaps question marks aswell but remains unexposed over this trip and surface. He is 3 from 2 on this surface and when last seen on this surface he was a good 2^nd when unable to catch the winner who got first run that day, not been in same form in on polytrack although can easily be excused when overcooking it last time out out in front. Although up another 5lb for that last 2^nd here but may have more to offer on this surface from a good draw and jockey riding out of his skin at present. 1pt e/w Kung Hei Fat Choy 7/1 hills (Did manage to get some 9s but that long gone) 3.20 Southwell Another nice looking handicap for a Wednesday. Take Cover is an obvious starting point being he is 3 from 3 around here. Started out just aswell this term for new yard when winning at Haydock, not quite same form last twice on polytrack and in listed event at weekend. Needs to bounce back quickly here but doesn’t look on a bad mark returned here. Amenable is another with good record 2 from 2 around here but been very in and out away from here and needs to bounce back from 2 lesser efforts latest and this mark does look a tad harsh from a wide draw. Outpost another who is 2 from 3 around here and made a winning reappearance around here in October not been given much of a chance to get over that and has clearly bounced on last 2 efforts back on turf returns here just 4 days after latest run and looks out of sorts now and drop back to 6f a major concern. Scottish Lake another who is dropping back in trip but has been in good form at present but this is also first try on surface so probably best watched in a competitive affair. Beat The Bell is largely consistent but not obviously well treated off revised mark nor showed much in 3 runs to date on this surface. Waking Warrior hasn’t been seen for over 40 days since winning over CD off a 8lb lower mark under Amy Ryan. Apprentice rides today and takes 7lb off and did get on well with him earlier although this course very different in a race like this and will need a good break from stall 2 so not one to be taking a short price about with such an inexperience rider. R Woody looks a far too bigger price, yes he does have something to prove having failed to prove he is as consistent as he once was but he remains on a very dangerous mark. He is 7lb below his last winning mark and only raced once here causing a massive shock at 100/1 in a maiden over 5f, strong finishing 2^nd at Leicester 2 starts back suggest this 6f trip is definitely required and all 3 turf wins have come over 6f so that shouldn’t be a problem and a reasonable draw as well there’s a lot to like about his chances if this surface sparks him back. 1pt e/w R Woody 11/1 betfred 4.55 Kempton A Class 7 handicap so usual sorts, plenty look on good marks on there best form but are generally hard to win with these days but something has to win. Crown Dependency started the year rated 100 and now rated just 50, he has gone completely the wrong way though and only the drop to 5f only glimmer of something to come having not tried it since finishing 3^rd in Norfolk Stakes and 4^th in Molecomb Stakes as a 2yr old. Brain Sprout one of the least exposed in this lineup and very close 2^nd to Lucky Royale in one of these gives him a solid chance with that one going on to prove quite useful, but failed to do much after that though and not seen since January a concern. Pharoh Jake was 4^th in one of these last time out, but overall profile patchy and easily opposed having looked in need of more of a test last time out. Christine Dunnett runs two in this field both are maidens Itum looks first string on jockey bookings easy enough to excuse last time out on heavy ground, but respectable effort when 2^nd in same race as Pharoh Jake off this same mark but ultimately well held and needs to find something more here. Her other runner looks second string but for me looks to hold a good chance. Least exposed of all the runners with just 6 runs to date. Improvement on maiden form last 2 starts when 3^rd in same race as Pharoh Jake and Itum on penultimate start but she has been dropped 2lb for that effort and is much closely matched with Itum now and could turn that around now, did aswell as could be expected in a maiden at Southwell and if building upon those 2 efforts she could go close at a price. 1pt e/w College Doll 11/1 bet365