Mirage's Punting

[Mirage]

I've given the horses a miss for the past few months, mainly due to having a lot of work on in different parts of the world so it was impossible to get enough time to keep an eye on the game. That's finished now I am based in England again so I will give the jumps a go from now on and try to add another string to my punting bow. I've been a 95% flat man over the years and had reasonable success in the past but always wanted to give the jumps a go and now i'll see if I can get in to it as much as i'd like to. I'll be keeping a totally separate bank from my sports betting and a lower stake per point because I don't see the reason for risking too much when i'll be learning about the game. I'll post all my bets and reasoning in here as well as regular stats updates. Oh, the starting bank is 500pts and the maximum bet will be 10pts. Wish me luck! EDIT: I shall be concentrating on class 2 and above races over both hurdles and fences. I may narrow that down over time. When posting my stats, I will just include the prices I take and not anything I gain using BOG. I'll also inlude the odd AW bet.

[Mirage]

Re: Mirage's Jumps Season Bet 1: 27/10/12 - 3.25 Aintree 3/10pts Kid Cassidy to win - 9/2 with Bet365 I will take a little chance on Kid Cassidy taking the win tomorrow in what looks a nice, competitive race. If you look at this horses races you will see that he has his negative points but he has undoubtedly got talent and is well capable of winning this race if he puts in a good round. I love the way he travels in his races because he rarely looks to be working hard and cruises round. That seemingly laid back attitude could be a reason why his jumping is dodgy at times but at the same time I think it shows that he's well capable of putting in classy performances when jumping soundly. He has had 3 runs after long breaks like the one he is coming here off and he has won 2 of them and fell in the other outing when well clear of the field. Therefore, he should be race fit coming in to this one. Last time he ran was at Aintree and I feel that run in particular showed his best and worst sides. He blundered early on and was a clear last for some time before finishing his race really well and picking off the majority of the field really well. The winner was long gone but he beat some good horses that day despite the mistake over the same course and distance as this race will be run over. He faced Takeroc that day with a similar weight difference and won that battle well. I think he's still got a lot of improving to do but is the clear value in the race considering the unexposed Merrion is the clear favourite. Merrion could be anything but at around 3/1 i'm not willing to pay to find out. If he jumps somewhere near best he will go close because he travels well enough to get in contention. He tops the weights but I don't think he is carrying too much when compared to his rivals' marks.