Harry Fry's first runner - Wincanton 2:20

[jayalexander]

Former assistant to jump's king Paul Nicholls, Harry Fry, has his first runner today in a maiden hurdle. Having already had two uninspiring NHF runs under Nicholls, it will be interesting to see if Fry can provide the spark to ignite both his and the 5yo's career. Subtle Sovereign has not ran for 229 days, so it will be interesting to see what prep work the Fry yard has undertaken. There are not any positive stallion stats to note, which may have provided a clue, but Subtle Sovereign's forecasted at 6/1. I track a little system of runners with an sp of between 5/2 & 8/1 whose trainers have not had a runner in two years (my intention was to limit this to new trainers, although, obviously returning trainers and foreign trainers may slip through). Here are the rather surprising results since 2009: [TABLE]

[TR] [TH=class: breakdown16, bgcolor: #00008B]Bets[/TH] [TH=class: breakdown16, bgcolor: #00008B]Wins[/TH] [TH=class: breakdown16, bgcolor: #00008B]WinStrike[/TH] [TH=class: breakdown16, bgcolor: #00008B]SP_PL[/TH] [TH=class: breakdown16, bgcolor: #00008B]Places[/TH] [TH=class: breakdown16, bgcolor: #00008B]PlaceStrike[/TH] [TH=class: breakdown16, bgcolor: #00008B]Races[/TH] [TH=class: breakdown16, bgcolor: #00008B]RaceStrike[/TH] [TH=class: breakdown16, bgcolor: #00008B]ROI[/TH] [TH=class: breakdown16, bgcolor: #00008B]BF_Back[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: databreakdown16, bgcolor: #F0F8FF]178[/TD] [TD=class: databreakdown16, bgcolor: #F0F8FF]41[/TD] [TD=class: databreakdown16, bgcolor: #F0F8FF]23.03%[/TD] [TD=class: databreakdown16, bgcolor: #F0F8FF]54.08[/TD] [TD=class: databreakdown16, bgcolor: #F0F8FF]46[/TD] [TD=class: databreakdown16, bgcolor: #F0F8FF]25.84%[/TD] [TD=class: databreakdown16, bgcolor: #F0F8FF]162[/TD] [TD=class: databreakdown16, bgcolor: #F0F8FF]25.31%[/TD] [TD=class: databreakdown16, bgcolor: #F0F8FF]30.38%[/TD] [TD=class: databreakdown16, bgcolor: #F0F8FF] 63.26 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] ROI then drops but picks up again between 14/1 & 40/1, although only around a 5% strike. Interestingly, Fry's former boss has had a 30%+ win rate at Wincanton over the past 365 days. Emma Lavelle Beats that with 40%, but from 10 runners, to Nicholls 49. However, Lavelle nominated Tidal Dance as her horse to follow during the National Hunt season. Tricast, anyone?

[jayalexander]

Re: Harry Fry's first runner - Wincanton 2:20 The Paul Nicholls runner was the let down. Fry bagged a 20/1 second placed! Will follow him as an outright trainer with interest :) Here are the stats for between 14/1 & 40/1, the win and place strike are completely seperate, so combined is 13.53%. Attractive ROI (win only), but personally, I couldn't back 'em. [TABLE]

[TR] [TH=class: breakdown16]Bets[/TH] [TH=class: breakdown16]Wins[/TH] [TH=class: breakdown16]WinStrike[/TH] [TH=class: breakdown16]SP_PL[/TH] [TH=class: breakdown16]Places[/TH] [TH=class: breakdown16]PlaceStrike[/TH] [TH=class: breakdown16]Races[/TH] [TH=class: breakdown16]RaceStrike[/TH] [TH=class: breakdown16]ROI[/TH] [TH=class: breakdown16]BF_Back[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: databreakdown16]473[/TD] [TD=class: databreakdown16]26[/TD] [TD=class: databreakdown16]5.50%[/TD] [TD=class: databreakdown16]103.00[/TD] [TD=class: databreakdown16]38[/TD] [TD=class: databreakdown16]8.03%[/TD] [TD=class: databreakdown16]410[/TD] [TD=class: databreakdown16]6.34%[/TD] [TD=class: databreakdown16]21.78%[/TD] [TD=class: databreakdown16]145.61[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]