BBOTD Saturday 13th

[cpo]

3.35 Newmarket Ermyn Lodge EW @ 40/1 Bet365 I feel they have probably held this one back this year in order to keep his handicap mark down. Before this season, Ermyn Lodge was a model of consistency are hardly ever ran a bad race. Come this year, he has almost finished last on both occasions. These runs have come on the back of a cracking run in this race last year where he finished a gallant 2nd but beating the likes of Colour Vision and Mount Athos who have both gone on to bigger and better things. Ermyn Lodge is well suited to these staying races as he also showed when finishing 2nd in the Ascot stakes last year. I think they probably missed that race this year and have targeted the Cesarewitch as it offers almost treble the prize money and they obviously have a great chance of winning it with this horse. They have kept him fresh all season and it looks as though they have given him a similar amount of time between his last race as they did last year. He has dropped 2lbs to a mark of 93 so is only 3lbs higher than last year but I still think there is more improvement left in the tank. Ian Mongan has ridden him on most of his career starts and he has already been booked for the ride so he looks an intended runner. I wouldn't be surprised if he leaves his 2 runs this year well behind and puts up a big showing in this race. I suppose I could be wrong and he might have just completely lost the plot this season, but I do fancy him for this.

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 13th 18.15 Wolverhampton: Melodee Princess @ 14/1 Bet365 Melodee Princess was desperately unlucky at Wolverhampton two weeks ago. She really travelled very well in rear of the field, made a nice move 3f out on the outside of the field then and looked a real threat until she was simply locked 2f out. She had absolutely no way to go, no chance to switch to the outside and deliver a challenge. I assume she'd have gone very close with a clear run as she looked full of running with much more to give if Luke Morris would have been able to ask for everything. He wasn't able to do so though but Melodee Princess gets another chance tomorrow. She drops in class and is still lightly raced. She has the excellent assistance of DE Egan in the saddle who still claims very valuable 5lb as well. So I think she's very much overpriced.