UFC 153

[fatpiranha]

Some interesting match ups in Brazil this weekend. Erick Silva v Jon Fitch - Erick Silva has been spectacular since entering the UFC with his blend of knockout power punching and high level BJJ and has ended all his 3 fights in the 1st round (albeit he was wrongly disqualified for supposedly punching the back of Carlo Prater's head). Here he steps up a class however and takes on the boring but effective wrestler Jon Fitch who was on the brink of a title shot until a shock 12 second KO loss to Johny Hendricks put paid to those plans. We can consider that an anomaly however with Fitch getting caught cold. Most expert commentators expect Fitch to grind out another 'lay and pray' snorefest decision win but I think that Silva is the real deal and will light Fitch up in the stand up and be a constant submission threat off his back. I've bet on Silva by stoppage. Glover Teixeira v Fabio Maldonado - This to me is simply a mismatch. Maldonado is an ex professional boxer and consequently decent on his feet but Teixeira won't keep it standing long even if he possesses very good standup himself. Glover is being set up as the next realistic contender for Jon Jones' light-heavyweight crown and he's been fed a guy coming off 2 consecutive losses. They'll probably trade punches for a minute after which Teixeira will take Maldonado down, take his back and finish the fight with a rear naked choke. Teixeira by 1st round submission - free money. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira v Dave Herman - Big Nog is coming back off of his 1st ever submission loss when Frank Mir broke hisa arm in his last fight. Before that Minotauro was winning the standup against Mir. While he may never regain the heavyweight title Big Nog is still 2 classes above Dave 'Peewee' Herman. Big Nog only loses to top class fighters and Herman is a long, long way short of that. Big Nog to win by stoppage. Demian Maia v Rick (the Horror) Story - The bookies make this an even contest but I can't see it that way. Maia has shown improved stand up in his recent fights to add to his World Class BJJ. The drop to Welterweight means he's no longer always the small guy so should find it easier to take his opponents down. He's only ever been stopped by the heavy handed middleweight Nate Marquardt and his other losses have come by way of decision against the cream of the middleweight division in Anderson Silva, Chris Weidman and Mark Munoz. Story is a tough wrestler/kickboxer who has never been stopped and while Maia isn't going to knock him out if the fight does go to the ground that record will be sorely tested. The problem for Story is that he only has one realistic way of winning which is to keep the fight standing and win a decision on the judges scorecards in front of a partisan Brazilian crowd who'll be cheering their homeboy on. I'm not even sure that Story will win the standup and on the ground it's no contest. Maia by submission or decision is my bet.

[superfoo]

Re: UFC 153 Great write up and couldnt put it better myself. I beleive Glover is a a talent and a shoe in, though never convinced when they cross over into the UFC but he looked v good in his debut. Erik Silva is one of the most exciting guys in UFC though I am wary of Fitch with his 'lay and pray' just think silva has soooo much untapped potential. But that said fitch only lost to st pierre and i cant take thearly ko against hendricks at face value. I thought Maia looked good at the weight last time and cant help feel that Storey maybe a little overrated. Big Nog may be getting a little old but his pride is still there and I dont see where Herman can get to him but at the prices Im wary