Flat Racing Thursday 11th of October

[Aidymac]

*Toby Tyler - Ayr 3:40* The fact this horse won over this trip 6 times alone in 2011 means i had to have a second look. It runs off 71 tomorrow, 4 pounds lower than it's last success at Newcastle in 2011, and it has not won this year, so is certainly long overdue it's win, and is off a leniant mark. It has run well on soft going in the past, and on it's only run at this track ran a good 4th of 13 off a mark of 78 already this year. Midgley's horses have been running well without winning the past couple of weeks, but i think this horse has a good chance of getting into the winning enclosure. *0.5 Points e/w @ 12/1 Ladbrokes BOG*

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing Thursday 11th of October 5.10 Ayr - 1pt win Euston Square @ 25/1 (Bet365) Posted this before his York run:

3.30 York - 1pt win Euston Square @ 20/1 (PP) Personally think this runner is overpriced in this given conditions should be perfect for him to bring his A-game to the table. He's not from the most stylish yard in the world which probably contributes somewhat but Alistair Whillans has his string in good order and I can't help but feel his gelding will outrun his price today here. He's well-handicapped on his win off 77 at Ripon last July for all he had a 5lb claimer on board that day, as he races off 72 here and he was a comfortable 1 3/4l victor on that occasion. That was over this 1m2f trip which I think is his optimum. He's been in and out since but ran sound races off higher marks in decent handicaps back at Ripon and today's venue of York when beaten 3 1/2l in 6th off a 7lb higher mark in October (very wide draw). He's drawn wide again today but he won't be rushing to take the lead I wouldn't have thought so hopefully PJ McDonald can get him across into a decent position. He took a couple of runs to find top gear since returning in 2012 and then was only beaten a neck off a mark of 73 at Haydock when he just couldn't reel in the leader. That's another piece of form that gives him a chance here and although he bombed out at Ayr next time, his three most recent efforts also give him hope. Although the race he ran in back at the Scottish venue after that hasn't really worked out, it was still an encouraging performance behind a runaway 9l victor. Taking out the winner he went down by 1l by the runner-up and he was very slowly into stride which cost him 6 or 7 lengths. He put in good late work and it was a similar scenario two starts back (although not as bad at start). On that occasion, the leader stacked them up before quickening around the bend and it didn't suit my selection for all he finished really well. The 1m4f trip caught him out last time at Doncaster as he disputed 2nd at the furlong pole before fading quite badly late on and I think a soundly-run 1m2f is exactly what he wants at a course with a long straight - allowing him time to deliver his effort as he can take a little bit of time to hit top gear. A large field such as this should help him get cover and receive a solid gallop to run off that is true at the same time. There are a fair few pace merchants in the race which should keep it honest and I just think this one will be staying on at the finish and I see no reason why he can't shake things up at the business end.

Disappointed on this occasion as he chased quite a hot pace (good time set and those who dominated the race at the finish typically sat off the gallop). That was a 0-80 so he was probably biting off more than he could chew as well but he shouldn't be 25/1 now dropped 2lbs to head the weights in a 0-70 contest at a track he usually runs well at. The soft ground is somewhat of a concern but he has run adequately with cut in the ground before and he's worth another go at such odds.