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Zlatan's way of making money


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Hi all, I was searching for a place online where I can get other people's opinions on my system and I came across here. All opinions welcome. My system will work as follows: Attempt to find value by teasing out in my head how likely something is to happen in terms of %. For example I can get 4/9 on Germany beating Ireland in the upcoming qualifier. This is essentially saying Germany have a 69.2% ((9/4+9)(100)) chance of winning the game. I personally think they have around a 73% chance, so I see the 4/9 as value. For every time I see a price that is incorrect by 1-5%, I will stake €10. (For example I will stake €10 Germany to beat Ireland at 4/9 because I believe they have 3.8% more of a chance at beating Ireland than the bookies do.) When I see a price that is incorrect by 5-10%, I will stake €20. When I see a price that is incorrect by 10-15%, I will stake €30. When I see a price that is incorrect by 15-20%, I will stake €40. When I see a price that is incorrect by 20%+, I will stake €50. The reasoning behind this is, the higher the difference between my opinion and the bookies (I value my opinion highly), the less margin there is for error and the more chance of me locking in a profit in the long run as I up my stakes accordingly. This is a real system and I will be starting with a bank of €1000. I will be shopping around different bookmakers in order to get the best prices. As I said above, all opinions are welcome.

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