Z_Ibrahimovic Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Hi all, I was searching for a place online where I can get other people's opinions on my system and I came across here. All opinions welcome. My system will work as follows: Attempt to find value by teasing out in my head how likely something is to happen in terms of %. For example I can get 4/9 on Germany beating Ireland in the upcoming qualifier. This is essentially saying Germany have a 69.2% ((9/4+9)(100)) chance of winning the game. I personally think they have around a 73% chance, so I see the 4/9 as value. For every time I see a price that is incorrect by 1-5%, I will stake €10. (For example I will stake €10 Germany to beat Ireland at 4/9 because I believe they have 3.8% more of a chance at beating Ireland than the bookies do.) When I see a price that is incorrect by 5-10%, I will stake €20. When I see a price that is incorrect by 10-15%, I will stake €30. When I see a price that is incorrect by 15-20%, I will stake €40. When I see a price that is incorrect by 20%+, I will stake €50. The reasoning behind this is, the higher the difference between my opinion and the bookies (I value my opinion highly), the less margin there is for error and the more chance of me locking in a profit in the long run as I up my stakes accordingly. This is a real system and I will be starting with a bank of €1000. I will be shopping around different bookmakers in order to get the best prices. As I said above, all opinions are welcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Re: Zlatan's way of making money Well it looks like a good system. Keys to success are probably maintaining a decent edge over the market and disciplined staking. Your stakes are between 1% and 5%. Seems a bit high, but not ridiculously so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z_Ibrahimovic Posted October 10, 2012 Author Share Posted October 10, 2012 Re: Zlatan's way of making money Selection: Ireland v Germany @ 4/9 Reasoning: Germany have a superb record in qualifying and will want to qualify asap. As this is only their third game, I feel they will take this very seriously and strive for the win. Ireland are a very poor side that have a manager who insists upon selecting lower quality players than what is available to him and also uses outdated tactics. Robbie Keane is expected to lead the line on his own, and I don't think he has the attributes to do this well. He lacks speed, strength and aerial ability. This will make the job much easier for the Germans, as it did for Spain in the Euros. Bookies %: 69.2% (Paddy Power) My %: 73% Difference: 3.8% Stake: €10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z_Ibrahimovic Posted October 10, 2012 Author Share Posted October 10, 2012 Re: Zlatan's way of making money Selection: Luxembourg v Israel: Luxembourg +2 handicap @ 21/20 Reasoning: Luxembourg have proven quite difficult to beat at home recently. For example, most recently Portugal only managed to beat them 2-1 after falling 1-0 behind. In previous qualifiers to this (Euro 2012), they lost 1-0 against Switzerland and Hungary, lost 2-0 to France and Romania, and beat Albania and Slovakia 2-1. All of these games above were played on home soil, as Luxembourg generally have a very poor away record. I don't think this current Israel side is better than most of the sides that have struggled to win away to Luxembourg over the last couple of years. They lost 4-0 at home to Russia in their last qualifier and drew 1-1 away to Azerbaijan before that. I think it's unlikely that they will beat Luxembourg by two clear goals. Bookies %: 48.8 (Bet365) My %: 57 Difference: 8.2 Stake: €20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z_Ibrahimovic Posted October 10, 2012 Author Share Posted October 10, 2012 Re: Zlatan's way of making money Selection: Faroe Islands v Sweden: Correct score to be 0-1, 0-2 or 0-3 @ 4/5 Reasoning: Faroe Islands have scored 3 goals in their last 8 fixtures, (2 coming in one game against Estonia) and regularly lose 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0. Sweden on the other hand haven't scored more than 3 goals in their last 13 fixtures and have kept a clean sheet in 3 out of their last 4 games. Bookies %: 55.5 (Bwin) My %: 59 Difference: 3.5 Stake: €10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z_Ibrahimovic Posted October 11, 2012 Author Share Posted October 11, 2012 Re: Zlatan's way of making money Selection: Belarus v Spain: Belarus +2 Asian Handicap @ 21/20 Reasoning: Belarus have a decent home record and don't concede too many goals there. For example, in the Euro qualifiers, they drew 1-1 at home to France, they even managed to beat them 1-0 away from home! They haven't lost a home game by 3 goals or more in years. Also, Spain very rarely win by more than two goals away from home in qualifiers. The last time they managed to do this, was against Liechtenstein in 2010, when they won 4-0. They only managed to win their last away game 1-0, against Georgia, with a late goal. Bookies %: 48.8 (Bet365) My %: 58 Difference: 9.2 Stake: €20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
montekaleb Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Re: Zlatan's way of making money I'm just wandering - do you make your estimate before or after you see the bookie's odds ? Would knowing bias your decision, or is your estimate completely independent ? Anways, I admire your level of research into individual games. I hope your diligence is rewarded.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolo Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Re: Zlatan's way of making money How have you arrived at your predictive %? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z_Ibrahimovic Posted October 12, 2012 Author Share Posted October 12, 2012 Re: Zlatan's way of making money I'm just wandering - do you make your estimate before or after you see the bookie's odds ? Would knowing bias your decision, or is your estimate completely independent ? Anways, I admire your level of research into individual games. I hope your diligence is rewarded.. I do it after seeing the bookies odds, in an ideal world I'd do it before but that would eat up an awful lot of time because the vast majority of the selections offered by the bookies are either the correct price, or mostly a price below it's correct value. I just look through different markets on the likes of oddschecker and if anything catches my eye as possibly being good value, I'll do a bit of research on it. I honestly try not to let the bookie's price influence my thinking. How have you arrived at your predictive %? For these internationals, just purely on my knowledge of the teams and the patterns of their results. For example, the Faroe Islands v Sweden selection. I think to myself, how many times out of a hundred will Sweden win 1, 2 or 3-0, how many times will Faroes score and Sweden not score, how many times will Sweden score 4 or more and Faroes not score, and how many times will Sweden score 4 or more and Faroes score. Sweden win 1, 2 or 3-0 = 59 times out of a hundred Sweden score and Faroes score = 20 times out of a hundred Faroes score and Sweden not score = 2 times out of a hundred Sweden score 4 or more and Faroes not score = 19 times out of a hundred For Premier League and Champions League games, my knowledge is vastly superior so I will be including a lot more factors than just recent results. I will be including: did the team play midweek, who's the referee, what specific players are injured and suspended (I'll be better placed to access the impact of these losses on these teams than I would be able to with many international teams) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolo Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Re: Zlatan's way of making money Why do you think such simple methodology will be able to beat a large and thus efficient market? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Re: Zlatan's way of making money Why do you think such simple methodology will be able to beat a large and thus efficient market? It could be more rewarding to consider this after the results of some of Zlatan's selections are known. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z_Ibrahimovic Posted October 12, 2012 Author Share Posted October 12, 2012 Re: Zlatan's way of making money Selection: Wales v Scotland: Steven Fletcher to score anytime @ 9/4 Reasoning: Wales have conceded 8 goals in their last two games, they clearly have a leaky defense. I don't rate Scotland too highly myself but I do think they have a goal or two in them tonight against this defense. Steven Fletcher, according to the media, is set to start and has a fantastic record in the Premier league over the last 18 months or so. He really is a clinical finisher and I feel he'll get a chance or two tonight. He'll also feel like he has something to prove after being in international exile for so long, which is a plus. Bookies %: 30.8 My %: 39 Difference: 8.2 Stake: €10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z_Ibrahimovic Posted October 13, 2012 Author Share Posted October 13, 2012 Re: Zlatan's way of making money So the Faroes decide to score against a decent side for once, Spain get one of their rare big wins away from home, Luxembourg uncharacteristically implode at home against an average side and Steven Fletcher has a goal incorrectly ruled out. And to top it off, the bet I stood to win the least from, romps home. The joys of football, I've had plenty of nights like this and other nights where everything I touch turns to gold. I'll soldier on anyway and round up my total profit/loss after the next round of internationals. One thing that did catch my eye tonight was the draw between the Faroes and Ireland at 6/1. Put my highest stake, 30, on it as I just saw it as exceptional value. Will post more detail tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z_Ibrahimovic Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 Re: Zlatan's way of making money Selection: Faroe Islands v Ireland: Draw at 6/1 Reasoning: Two poor sides (albeit the Faroes are poorer), Ireland are in disarray and have been playing terrible for a long time now. There are huge questions over the manager and the team spirit appears to be at a low point. Already detailed above about the Faroes home record and how much improved their defence is. Bookies %: 14.3% My %: 25% Difference: 10.7% Stake: €30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z_Ibrahimovic Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 Re: Zlatan's way of making money Selection: Romania v Holland: Holland to win @ 1/1 Reasoning: Holland rested many key players v Andorra and should be fresh. Romania had a hard fought win away to Turkey and will not be as fresh. That win for Romania also takes some pressure off tonight, they do not ''need ''a result like they would have done if they had lost or even drew to Turkey. Also, Holland have a fantastic recent qualifying record. Bookies %: 50 My %: 58 Difference: 8% Stake: €20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z_Ibrahimovic Posted October 17, 2012 Author Share Posted October 17, 2012 Re: Zlatan's way of making money Selection: Poland v England: Rooney to score any time @ 7/4 Reasoning: Rooney is off the back of two goals (albeit against San Marino) and has shown in the past that he can be a very streaky player. I think there's a decent chance of him finding the net again today. England also have an excellent recent qualifying record. Bookies %: 36.3% My %: 40 Difference:3.7% Stake: €10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Re: Zlatan's way of making money So the Faroes decide to score against a decent side for once, Spain get one of their rare big wins away from home, Luxembourg uncharacteristically implode at home against an average side and Steven Fletcher has a goal incorrectly ruled out. And to top it off, the bet I stood to win the least from, romps home. The joys of football, I've had plenty of nights like this and other nights where everything I touch turns to gold. I'll soldier on anyway and round up my total profit/loss after the next round of internationals. One thing that did catch my eye tonight was the draw between the Faroes and Ireland at 6/1. Put my highest stake, 30, on it as I just saw it as exceptional value. Will post more detail tomorrow. Luck is always a factor I think, and everyone has good and bad runs no matter how good or bad a 'bettor' they are. You'll only really be able to judge the results of your system after quite a lot of bets - perhaps 100 or more? But you can see why you might not want to continue if you're showing an early loss - there's a lot of work involved and if you're not making a profit then you might think 'what's the point?'. It might be easier I suppose if you enjoy doing it anyway, and if you learn along the way ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z_Ibrahimovic Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 Re: Zlatan's way of making money Luck is always a factor I think' date=' and everyone has good and bad runs no matter how good or bad a 'bettor' they are. You'll only really be able to judge the results of your system after quite a lot of bets - perhaps 100 or more? But you can see why you might not want to continue if you're showing an early loss - there's a lot of work involved and if you're not making a profit then you might think 'what's the point?'. It might be easier I suppose if you enjoy doing it anyway, and if you learn along the way ...[/quote'] Yep, spot on. I know I'm going to lose at times, just like the bookies do - it's all about what happens in the long run. I've logged 100s of bets elsewhere before, without putting half the effort in and I've shown a pretty decent profit so I'm confident the same will happen here. All my losses were already wiped out since this log anyway, I didn't have time to log it here as both were in play but I backed the draw late on on the France/Spain game (as I saw France were creating really good chances) and also layed Northern Ireland late on v Portugal, made €144.11 profit from those two. betfair.png"> My Rooney to score v Poland bet that I logged is directly above them in that screen shot. Anyway I'm not going to include them in the P&L of this log as I didn't mention it before the bets had won, just showing that I'm not disheartened tbh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z_Ibrahimovic Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 Re: Zlatan's way of making money Sorry, for whatever reason that screenshot isn't showing now, but when Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z_Ibrahimovic Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 Re: Zlatan's way of making money ...I clicked on it in 'preview post', it worked. Help would be appreciated. Sorry for this second post, I clicked submit by accident on the last one and I think it's against the rules to edit posts so if a mod could join them together... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Re: Zlatan's way of making money I think it's against the rules to edit posts so if a mod could join them together... I don't think editing posts in general is a problem. But I know PL don't like you editing betting tips. Re. your screenshot problem, you could try asking here (or experiment using the Testing Thread) ... http://forum.punterslounge.com/forums/214-Problems-amp-Bugs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z_Ibrahimovic Posted October 20, 2012 Author Share Posted October 20, 2012 Re: Zlatan's way of making money Don't have time for proper writeups at the moment so I'll just mention my selections, stake and a small bit of reasoning. Juan Mata Sky Sports man of the match v Spurs, €20 @ 14/1. Had a break during the internationals and was in great form before hand. Under 2.5 goals in same match, €10 @ 11/10. Directly after internationals and a 12.45 kickoff, these games can be very flat with little goal mouth action. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Re: Zlatan's way of making money Juan Mata Sky Sports man of the match v Spurs' date=' €20 @ 14/1. Had a break during the internationals and was in great form before hand.[/quote'] Which bookie was that with by the way? Skybet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z_Ibrahimovic Posted October 20, 2012 Author Share Posted October 20, 2012 Re: Zlatan's way of making money Which bookie was that with by the way? Skybet? Betvictor. I had taken it midweek because I couldn't believe the price when I saw it but then last night I saw he was 16/1 with Stanjames. I suppose I can't really complain because it was a really nice win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z_Ibrahimovic Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 Re: Zlatan's way of making money Selection: Ireland v Germany: Germany to win @ 4/9 Result: 6-1 to Germany Profit/Loss: +€4.44 Selection: Luxembourg v Israel: Luxembourg +2 handicap @ 21/20 Result: 5-0 to Israel Profit/Loss: €-20 Selection: Faroe Islands v Sweden: Correct score to be 0-1, 0-2 or 0-3 @ 4/5 Result: 2-1 to Sweden Profit/Loss: €-10 Selection: Belarus v Spain: Belarus +2 Asian Handicap @ 21/20 Result: 4-0 to Spain Profit/Loss: €-20 Selection: Wales v Scotland: Steven Fletcher to score anytime @ 9/4 Result: Lose Profit/Loss: -€10 Selection: Faroe Islands v Ireland: Draw at 6/1 Result: 4-1 to Ireland Profit/Loss: -€30 Selection: Romania v Holland: Holland to win @ 1/1 Result: 4-1 to Holland Profit/Loss: +€20 Selection: Poland v England: Rooney to score any time @ 7/4 Result: Win Profit/Loss: +€17.5 Selection: Juan Mata Sky Sports man of the match v Tottenham @ 14/1 Result: Win Profit/Loss: +€280 Selection: Tottenham v Chelsea: Under 2.5 goals @ 11/10 Result: 4-2 to Chelsea Profit/Loss: -€10 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total Bets: 10 Total Staked: €160 Total Profit/Loss: +€221.94 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z_Ibrahimovic Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 Re: Zlatan's way of making money Selection: Man Utd v Braga: Man United to win and both teams to score @ 9/4 Reasoning: Braga have scored 12 goals in their last 4 games so are not shy in front of goal at the moment and Man United are not defensively reliable this season and are resting two first team defenders for this game in Evra and Ferdinand as well as missing Vidic, Smalling and Jones. Their backline will likely consist of Buttner, Evans, Wooten and Rafael. I think they'll have more than enough going forward to win the game but I'd be surprised if they managed to keep a clean sheet. Bookies %: 30.8 (Ladbrokes) My %: 39 Difference: 8.2% Stake: €20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smus Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Re: Zlatan's way of making money is this just similiar to kelly staking? whereby your estimated edge decides the % of bank you stake. my problem with kelly staking is being sure of the edge, which is fine in a coin-flip etc, but difficult for sports. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z_Ibrahimovic Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 Re: Zlatan's way of making money is this just similiar to kelly staking? whereby your estimated edge decides the % of bank you stake. my problem with kelly staking is being sure of the edge, which is fine in a coin-flip etc, but difficult for sports. Pretty much, but kelly staking uses a much higher % of bank per bet. I have great confidence that I've an edge on the market with regards soccer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z_Ibrahimovic Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 Re: Zlatan's way of making money Selection: Montpellier v Olympiakos: Lay Montpellier @ 2.24 Reasoning: I think Montpellier are simply too short to win this one. They have been very poor this season in the French league and are well off the pace. I think the fact they got a draw away to Schalke is affecting their price too much for tonight. I saw parts of that game and they were lucky to come away with a draw, Schalke passed up some glorious chances to put the game to bed. I also saw parts of Olympiakos against Arsenal and I didn't think they performed too badly despite being beaten 3-1. I think they looked a threatening side. Bookies %: (for Schalke to win): 44.4 My %: 37 Difference: 7.4% Stake: €20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z_Ibrahimovic Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 Re: Zlatan's way of making money Selection: Man Utd to win and both teams to score @ 9/4 Result: Man Utd win 3-2 Profit/Loss: +€45 Selection: Montpellier v Olympiakos: Lay Montpellier @ 2.24 Result: Olympiakos win 2-1 Profit/Loss: +€15.32 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total Bets: 12 Total Staked: €200 Total Profit/Loss: +€282.26 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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