The Single Path To Riches

[Fundamental Bettor]

I will be running a betting log over the course of the season that will focus on bets that meet very specific criteria. All bets will be on football and will be placed on a team to win, over 2.5 goals, a combination of the two, both teams to score and occasionally Asian handicaps. This log will be using virtual money with a starting bank of £100 and using odds from a number of bookmakers to get the maximum value. The majority of the bets will have odds in the region of between 4/9 and 4/5. Each of the bets will have an expectation of a level stakes profit percentage in excess of 20% and a strike rate in excess of 80%. To illustrate the task and the bankroll challenges this betting log entails I will give an example of two betting strategies: (1) The level stakes approach 100 bets are placed, each at odds of 1/2 with a 74% strike rate. That will result in an 11% ROI assuming you wager the same amount on each bet. Most professional sports bettors would have a long term level stakes profit in the region of 2% to 7%. (2) The variable bank betting approach This is where a percentage of the current bankroll is staked on each bet. It is the most volatile bankroll strategy however it can provide greater profit than the level stakes betting approach. Using the above example of 100 bets, each at odds of 1/2 and a winning percentage of 74% the variable bank betting strategy is best illustrated below: Wager 50% on each bet would result in losing 77% of the bankroll. Wager 5% on each bet would result in the bankroll increasing by 63%. I will be using a variable bank betting strategy with a 50% stake so I will be posing very selective wagers. I will provide a general preview for each bet and expect to post between 2 and 4 bets per month that meet the required criteria set out above.

[Fundamental Bettor]

Re: The Single Path To Riches The two sides last faced each other on Tyneside on January 4 when Sir Alex Ferguson's men left on the wrong end of a 3-0 scoreline having been comprehensively beaten. They have gone some of the way towards making amends since with a 2-1 Capital One Cup victory over Pardew's team at Old Trafford last month, but they will head to the north-east determined to return with three points. Both sides have defensive injury problems, and that - coupled with the riches the two managers have at their disposal in attack suggests a high scoring match. Newcastle’s Demba Ba already has six goals to his name this season, while United's flying Dutchman Robin van Persie has seven. Newcastle will be without first-choice goalkeeper Tim Krul and central defenders Fabricio Coloccini and Steven Taylor. Man Utd too will have key absentees at the back with Nemanja Vidic, Chris Smalling and Phil Jones - who scored an own goal in last season's game - still out.

Newcastle’s goalkeeper, Steve Harper has the daunting task of keeping out the most lethal forward pairing in the land, Rooney and Van Persie, who netted 82 goals between them for club and country last term.

Man Utd have averaged 3.83 match goals per game in this season’s premier league season with half of their matches coming in at 5 goal thrillers. Newcastle have their own lethal strike force of Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse supported by Ben Arfa which will cause the Manchester defence a lot of problems.

Newcastle manager Alan Pardew has some advice for sports bettors: " Both me and Alex will be sweating defensively. Our two centre-halves tomorrow have played almost every game - (James) Perch and (Mike) Williamson - and their two centre-halves could well be (Michael) Carrick and (Rio) Ferdinand, so it's not ideal. "You want to have fresh players for games like this, but they are not and that favours the strikers for Sunday."

Lineups:

Newcastle: Harper; Santon, Williamson, Perch, Ferguson; Ben Arfa, Cabaye, Tiote, Gutierrez ©; Ba, Cisse

Manchester United: De Gea; Rafael, Ferdinand, Evans, Evra ©; Carrick, Cleverley; Welbeck, Rooney, Kagawa; Van Persie.

Selection: both teams to score

Bookmaker: 888Sport

Odds: 4/6

Stake: £50