Notreallyausername`s soccermodel

[Notreallyausername]

Hello fellow punters (And you others aswell) I´ve been lurking this forum for a while now and figured it was about time i started a thread of my own, so here it is. I`ve created a model for just about any type of bet, it uses statistics dating like 4 years back or something, i use a ratings which i distribute with poisson to decide where there is value. The league I`ve decided to focus on is Bundesliga II, not really sure why, it just happened to be there, sort of. At the moment this is a paper-trail only model, just because this is the first season for me, and there is not really a good way to backtest it, unfortunately. Before i started modeling Bundesliga II, I focused on a couple of leagues, but with the same model. My stats to date with the model are these: 82 bet 40 won 40 lost 2 push ROI: 22,36% Strikerate: 50% Avg. Odds: 2.06 My stats in Bundesliga II are these: 33 bets 16 won 15 lost 2 push ROI: 23.32% Strikerate: 51,61% Avg. Odds: 2,35 Starting bank was 1000 (Im not from the UK/US, so it`s not really a big bank) and i flatbet 5%/1 unit (Of the starting bank, wont raise or lower stakes untill i double up) Let´s start out nice and slow. Duisburg - Hertha Berlin Bet: Over 2,5 goals Odds: 1,98 Bookie: Pinnacle Stake: 1 unit Anything above 1,46 is value. If you have any questions, just ask and I´ll do my best to answer them.

[Notreallyausername]

Re: Notreallyausername`s soccermodel

Updated stats: 34 bets 17 won 15 lost 2 push ROI: 25.66% Strikerate: 53,13% Avg. Odds: 2,34 Duisburg - Hertha Berlin Bet: Over 2,5 goals Odds: 1,98 Bookie: Pinnacle Stake: 1 unit Anything above 1,46 is value. WON, final score: 2-2

Too bad there isn`t some sort of function to post bets here, seems kind of unsmooth to have to write it all out in plain text.

[hammerddh]

Re: Notreallyausername`s soccermodel nice start

[froment]

Re: Notreallyausername`s soccermodel Yup, nice start, good luck! :ok

My stats in Bundesliga II are these: 33 bets 16 won 15 lost 2 push

Updated stats: 34 bets 17 won 15 lost 2 push

Unfortunately, these stats cannot be accepted - it was nice to display past stats, to have an idea about development of a system at earlier stage, but for the purpose of this thread you have to start from the beginning, so it is 1 bet, 1 won, 0 lost, etc... :ok

[Notreallyausername]

Re: Notreallyausername`s soccermodel

Yup, nice start, good luck! :ok Unfortunately, these stats cannot be accepted - it was nice to display past stats, to have an idea about development of a system at earlier stage, but for the purpose of this thread you have to start from the beginning, so it is 1 bet, 1 won, 0 lost, etc... :ok

Thank you! Hmpf, alright then, I´ll do it your way! I`ll just start a new spreadsheet or something.

[Notreallyausername]

Re: Notreallyausername`s soccermodel Updated, and this time real stats. 1 bet 1 won 0 lost 0 push ROI: 198% Avg. odds 1,98 Strikerate: 100%

[froment]

Re: Notreallyausername`s soccermodel

Thank you! Hmpf, alright then, I´ll do it your way! I`ll just start a new spreadsheet or something.

:ok It's not "my way"; it's just the rule of this subforum, and it's the same for everyone. I'd recommend you to have a look, please, in Rules for posting betting systems. And in case you're wondering why that rule, it's because of you, to protect your integrity - otherwise people may question whether your past stats are real; anyone can come and claim ROI of 500% in the past. So, to prevent it, rule is simple - only bets posted here before kick-off count; the same reason is behind rule not to edit posts. I think those are reasonable rules, and thanks for accepting! Enjoy the forum, and :hope your system will continue well! :ok

[Notreallyausername]

Re: Notreallyausername`s soccermodel

:ok It's not "my way"; it's just the rule of this subforum, and it's the same for everyone. I'd recommend you to have a look, please, in Rules for posting betting systems. And in case you're wondering why that rule, it's because of you, to protect your integrity - otherwise people may question whether your past stats are real; anyone can come and claim ROI of 500% in the past. So, to prevent it, rule is simple - only bets posted here before kick-off count; the same reason is behind rule not to edit posts. I think those are reasonable rules, and thanks for accepting! Enjoy the forum, and :hope your system will continue well! :ok

"These results should be posted as a running overview of the system for as long as its been running." But yeah, I understand what you mean, Froment.

[froment]

Re: Notreallyausername`s soccermodel In fact, my reference is this part: "- Post bets before the event" But, as you say, we agreed the way it should be; nevermind the details. ;)

[Notreallyausername]

Re: Notreallyausername`s soccermodel So, here are my picks for this weekend`s games. [TABLE=width: 100%]

[TR=class: ssEven, bgcolor: #F6F6F6] [TD=width: 130]2012-10-07 13:30[/TD] [TD=width: 150]Bundesliga 2[/TD] [TD=width: 400]Erzgebirge vs Jahn Regensburg UNDER[/TD] [TD=width: 60, align: center]U 2.5[/TD] [TD=width: 46, align: center]FT[/TD] [TD=width: 50, align: center]1[/TD] [TD=class: smallfont, width: 50, align: center]1.770[/TD] [TD=width: 100, align: center]Bookie:[/TD] [TD=class: normal, width: 62, align: center]Marathonbet[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: ssOdd, bgcolor: #EDEEF0] [TD=width: 130]2012-10-07 13:30[/TD] [TD=width: 150]Bundesliga 2[/TD] [TD=width: 400]SV Sandhausen vs Aalen UNDER[/TD] [TD=width: 60, align: center]U 2.5[/TD] [TD=width: 46, align: center]FT[/TD] [TD=width: 50, align: center]0,5[/TD] [TD=class: smallfont, width: 50, align: center]1.820[/TD] [TD=width: 100, align: center]Bookie:[/TD] [TD=class: normal, width: 62, align: center]Marathonbet[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: ssEven, bgcolor: #F6F6F6] [TD=width: 130]2012-10-07 13:30[/TD] [TD=width: 150]Bundesliga 2[/TD] [TD=width: 400]SV Sandhausen vs Aalen[/TD] [TD=width: 60, align: center]DNB[/TD] [TD=width: 46, align: center]FT[/TD] [TD=width: 50, align: center]0,5[/TD] [TD=class: smallfont, width: 50, align: center]2.100[/TD] [TD=width: 100, align: center]Bookie:[/TD] [TD=class: normal, width: 62, align: center]Paddypower[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: ssOdd, bgcolor: #EDEEF0] [TD=width: 130]2012-10-07 13:30[/TD] [TD=width: 150]Bundesliga 2[/TD] [TD=width: 400]Ingolstadt vs Kaiserslautern OVER[/TD] [TD=width: 60, align: center]Ö 2.5[/TD] [TD=width: 46, align: center]FT[/TD] [TD=width: 50, align: center]1[/TD] [TD=class: smallfont, width: 50, align: center]1.990[/TD] [TD=width: 100, align: center]Bookie:[/TD] [TD=class: normal, width: 62, align: center]SboBet[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: ssEven, bgcolor: #F6F6F6] [TD=width: 130]2012-10-07 13:30[/TD] [TD=width: 150]Bundesliga 2[/TD] [TD=width: 400]Ingolstadt vs Kaiserslautern[/TD] [TD=width: 60, align: center]2[/TD] [TD=width: 46, align: center]FT[/TD] [TD=width: 50, align: center]1[/TD] [TD=class: smallfont, width: 50, align: center]2.350[/TD] [TD=width: 100, align: center]Bookie:[/TD] [TD=class: normal, width: 62, align: center]Pinnacle[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: ssOdd, bgcolor: #EDEEF0] [TD=width: 130]2012-10-06 13:00[/TD] [TD=width: 150]Bundesliga 2[/TD] [TD=width: 400]Cottbus vs Duisburg[/TD] [TD=width: 60, align: center]1[/TD] [TD=width: 46, align: center]FT[/TD] [TD=width: 50, align: center]1[/TD] [TD=class: smallfont, width: 50, align: center]1.830[/TD] [TD=width: 100, align: center]Bookie:[/TD] [TD=class: normal, width: 62, align: center]Pinnacle[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: ssEven, bgcolor: #F6F6F6] [TD=width: 130]2012-10-06 13:00[/TD] [TD=width: 150]Bundesliga 2[/TD] [TD=width: 400]Braunschweig vs Bochum[/TD] [TD=width: 60, align: center]1[/TD] [TD=width: 46, align: center]FT[/TD] [TD=width: 50, align: center]1[/TD] [TD=width: 50, align: center]1.650[/TD] [TD=width: 100, align: center]Bookie:[/TD] [TD=class: normal, width: 62, align: center]Unibet[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: ssOdd, bgcolor: #EDEEF0] [TD=width: 130]2012-10-06 13:00[/TD] [TD=width: 150]Bundesliga 2[/TD] [TD=width: 400]Braunschweig vs Bochum UNDER[/TD] [TD=width: 60, align: center]U 2.5[/TD] [TD=width: 46, align: center]FT[/TD] [TD=width: 50, align: center]1[/TD] [TD=width: 50, align: center]1.860[/TD] [TD=width: 100, align: center]Bookie:[/TD] [TD=class: normal, width: 62, align: center]SboBet[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: ssEven, bgcolor: #F6F6F6] [TD=width: 130]2012-10-05 18:00[/TD] [TD=width: 150]Bundesliga 2[/TD] [TD=width: 400]St Pauli vs Union Berlin OVER[/TD] [TD=width: 60, align: center]Ö 2.5[/TD] [TD=width: 46, align: center]FT[/TD] [TD=width: 50, align: center]1[/TD] [TD=class: smallfont, width: 50, align: center]1.870[/TD] [TD=width: 100, align: center]Bookie:[/TD] [TD=class: normal, width: 62, align: center]Marathonbet[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: ssOdd, bgcolor: #EDEEF0] [TD=width: 130]2012-10-05 18:00[/TD] [TD=width: 150]Bundesliga 2[/TD] [TD=width: 400]St Pauli vs Union Berlin[/TD] [TD=width: 60, align: center]1[/TD] [TD=width: 46, align: center]FT[/TD] [TD=width: 50, align: center]1[/TD] [TD=class: smallfont, width: 50, align: center]2.120[/TD] [TD=width: 100, align: center]Bookie:[/TD] [TD=class: normal, width: 62, align: center]SboBet[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]