Notreallyausername`s soccermodel

[Notreallyausername]

Hello fellow punters (And you others aswell) I´ve been lurking this forum for a while now and figured it was about time i started a thread of my own, so here it is. I`ve created a model for just about any type of bet, it uses statistics dating like 4 years back or something, i use a ratings which i distribute with poisson to decide where there is value. The league I`ve decided to focus on is Bundesliga II, not really sure why, it just happened to be there, sort of. At the moment this is a paper-trail only model, just because this is the first season for me, and there is not really a good way to backtest it, unfortunately. Before i started modeling Bundesliga II, I focused on a couple of leagues, but with the same model. My stats to date with the model are these: 82 bet 40 won 40 lost 2 push ROI: 22,36% Strikerate: 50% Avg. Odds: 2.06 My stats in Bundesliga II are these: 33 bets 16 won 15 lost 2 push ROI: 23.32% Strikerate: 51,61% Avg. Odds: 2,35 Starting bank was 1000 (Im not from the UK/US, so it`s not really a big bank) and i flatbet 5%/1 unit (Of the starting bank, wont raise or lower stakes untill i double up) Let´s start out nice and slow. Duisburg - Hertha Berlin Bet: Over 2,5 goals Odds: 1,98 Bookie: Pinnacle Stake: 1 unit Anything above 1,46 is value. If you have any questions, just ask and I´ll do my best to answer them.

[Notreallyausername]

Re: Notreallyausername`s soccermodel

Updated stats: 34 bets 17 won 15 lost 2 push ROI: 25.66% Strikerate: 53,13% Avg. Odds: 2,34 Duisburg - Hertha Berlin Bet: Over 2,5 goals Odds: 1,98 Bookie: Pinnacle Stake: 1 unit Anything above 1,46 is value. WON, final score: 2-2

Too bad there isn`t some sort of function to post bets here, seems kind of unsmooth to have to write it all out in plain text.