NFL: Week 4

[blackcrow]

After all the fiasco with the referees last weekend, would not be surprised that they call less penalties during the game, and any disuputable decisions go the way of the defence, rather than the offence. Baltimore -12.5 @ 2.11 pinnacle Baltimore should do well here as their no huddle offence should have no problems getting through this Cleveland defence who has a banged up seconary. The Ravens scored 44 points on Cincinnati and 31 points on New England in winning both of their home games as Flacco had 329 yards (2 TDs) and 382 yards (3 TDs, 1 INT) respectively. Cleveland's defence has allowed 8 TDs so far (even though they have 5 INTs - Vick giving them 4 in one game) but with CB Haden out, they have been found out in the secondary. Also Baltimore have run for 123 yards and 121 yards in both of these games, while the Cleveland rush defence has allowed 150, 80 and 138 yards in their three games so far. Cleveland will look to QB Weeden to improve his 3 TDs and 6 INTs but faces his toughest test here as the Baltimore defence will be looking to improve on their uncharacteistically poor performance against NE. They will be even more pupmed to stop the pass but also the run, as RB Richardson has also not been consistent in running the ball. Baltimore have won 8 of their last 9 meetings, and given the quick turnaround, hard to see Cleveland being ready to meet this Baltimore offence, and expect them to give up some TDs Seattle -2.5 @ 1.92 pinnacle Seattle had a controversial win over the Packers on Monday night, but ignoring the drama at the end, what was forgotten was their defensive performance in not allowing one of the best offensive units to get on the board while they also had 8 sacks in the first half. Seattle have had success running the ball, with 115, 182 and 127 yards against Arizona, Dallas and Green Bay while St Louis has allowed 83, 176 and 103 yards to Detroit, Washington and Chicago. Like Lynch to have a big day here as he should be able to bulldoze through their defensive line and make his way into the backfield. QB Wilson has been steady for them, and shown that he can also use his feet, so lik him to feed Lynch while also getting some passes in. Seattle's defence has allowed just 43,49 and 84 rushing yards in its three games, and though St Louis has ran for 78, 151 and 59 yards, hard to see them doing much here. Also with just 215, 251 and 223 passing yards allowed, then doubt that QB Bradford will get much time to make his throws as expect the Seattle pass rush to get to him. Atlanta -7.5 @ 2.11 pinnacle Atlanta is back home, where they have a very good record, after their excellent 27-3 road win over San Diego to remain undefeated. Now they face Carolina in a divisional game, and like them to win again. They have thrown for 299, 219 and 275 yards (8TDs and 1 INT) against Kansas, Denver and San Diego, scoring at least 27 points in each of them, while also running for 84, 67 and 119 yards. There running game should be even better as Turner should see more of the ball as Carolina have conceded 130, 163 and 125 rushing yards to Tampa Bay, New Orleans and NY Giants. Also they have allowed 138, 325 and 292 passing yards, so both the passing and running game should do well here. On defence, Atlanta has allowed 259, 241 and 173 passing yards with just 2 TDs but 7 INTs, so like them to pick off QB Newton who has thrown 5 INTs already. Probably see Carolina look to the run game as Atlanta has allowed 152, 118 and 116 yards but in a pretty loud Georgia Dome, then this defence will be putting pressure on him. Atlanta look better on both sides of the ball, and like them to extend their unbeaten run here Houston -13.5 @ 2.05 pinnacle Houston have been playing very well and like them to extend their unbeaten run against their divisional foe here. They have passed for 266, 195 and 290 yards with 5 TDs and 1 INT against the likes of Miami, Jacksonville and Denver while they have run for 83, 216 and 152 yards with both Foster and Tate picking up some good yardage. Like them to run all over this Tennessee side as they have allowed 162, 148 and 141 yards to New England, San Diego and Detroit, with neither of them considered to have as effective rushers of the ball like Houston has. This hould wear down this Titans defence to then allow QB Schaub to find WR Johnson with the long ball, as Tennessee have allowed 236, 284 and 350 passing yards (8TDs and 1 INT). Houston's defence has been excellent as they have allowed 219, 76 and 330 passing yards as well as just 79, 65 and 59 rushing yards. Hard to see Tennessee having any success on the ground and though QB Locker threw for 378 yards and 2 TDs against Detroit, this secondary is much better while the pass rush should be always putting him under pressure to get his throws out. Houston look too strong on both sides of the ball and though they have the Jets next Monday night, doubt that they will be looking head when this divisional game is important for them. Green Bay -9.5 @ 2.21 pinnacle Green Bay should be fired up for this game after their controversial ending against Seattle and would not be surprised that they get some 'favourable' calls from the officials. Expect to see Rodgers be more productive as he has thrown for 303, 246 and 223 yards so far against San Francisco, Chicago and Seattle for 4 TDs and 2 INTs, as he is up against a secondary that has allowed 320, 253 and 248 yards (3 TDs and 1 INT) to Washington, Carolina and Kansas, with neither of these respective QBs in the same league as Rodgers. The run game is starting to take a more leading role and would expect that they get Benson into the game much earlier on as NO have allowed 153, 219 and 273 rushing yards in their last 3 games. New Orleans have suffered from the absence of their coach from the sidelines, and Brees has not been as clinical as result, and though he has thrown for 339, 325 and 240 yards with 7 TDs, he has also given up 5 INTs, and with a secondary like GB that is aggressive in trying to intercept the ball, then he could find himself getting picked off. They have allowed 211, 126 and 130 passing yards, and though Brees present a much tougher assignment, they have played against him before, and know what to expect. Also they have run for just 32, 163 and 83 yards and ignoring the Carolina game (as they have a poor rush defence) they have not been able to set up the run game as they like. GB did allow 186 rushing yards to SF in week 1, but since then have allowed 94 and 127 yards to sides who look to run the ball more than they pass it. Like GB to negate their run game which puts even more pressure on Brees to get the passing game going. Record: 10-12 (+0.54)

[Mirage]

Re: NFL: Week 4 Going to take one now and will be back at some point over the coming days if I fancy any others: 5/10pts S.F. 49ers (-4 points) to beat N.Y. Jets - 10/11 with Bet365 I really like the 49ers this week and think this line is a point or 2 too short. I don't expect this to be a very high scoring game but the gulf in class between the defences of these sides should see the win go to the team from San Francisco. Revis is a massive loss for Jets and from what I read there isn't much confidence in the guys being rumoured to stand in for him. The loss of him for the season could make a huge impact on the field and also in terms of morale because he is obviously a highly rated player. This would be a tough game with him but now Sanchez is going to have to have one of his hot games to make up for that loss and whilst there is no doubt he is capable, this is a tough side to score points against and he may find himself sacked and intercepted repeatedly. The 49ers had their own problems last time out but those can be sorted out and put right within the space of a week. They are Super Bowl contenders and these are the type of fixtures that they should be winning. Sanchez can make it easy to defend against the Jets and with their own scoring options, I see them winning by enough points to cover this line. Their defence should win this for them so shouldn't need to do a great deal (compared to other away days) when they have the ball to bring in the bet.