Flat Racing Monday 20th of August

[Aidymac]

*Icy Blue - Thirsk 4:00* Last win came off a mark of 67, and runs off a career-low mark tomorrow of 64, so has every chance at the weights. Has dropped a lot in the weights, was running off a mark of 75 earlier this year. Has won here, record here is 2-1-8 from three runs. That win was off a 3 pound higher mark. Amy Ryan has won on the horse before also. Will enjoy the trip and ground. Interestingly, the Whitaker stable has hit unbelievable form, with 4 winners from his last 9 runners. The last 3 times Amy Ryan has ridden for Whitaker, she has won, that is also very interesting. *0.5 Points e/w @ 8/1 Bet365 BOG*

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing Monday 20th of August 19.00 Windsor: Tuscania @ 13/2 Paddy Power She didn't win on turf yet but there is no issue with the surface I think, rather a problem with in-running luck, particularly in her last two starts. She didn't get the best of rides by her rider in the Future Stars Apprentice Handicap, who brought her into serious trouble switching to the inside rail 3f out and as a result she was locked there with no room to go. It was kind of the same story lto when she travelled very well and looked to go very close what she did indeed eventually but she could have gone even closer if she wouldn't have been looked on the inside rail again. This was a class 2 Handicap at Haydock and she was unlucky beaten by less than 2 lengths, so the step down in class tomorrow should certainly be in her favour. It's interesting that the handicapper left her at the same mark while the horse that finished 2nd in the Haydock race, Burke's Rock - who is coincidently the favourite tomorrow here - went 2lb up. I assume that Tuscania, who was a lengths behind Burke's Rock lto, would have probably beaten the 3yo with a clear run, yet Burke's Rock is 2/1 chance tomorrow while Tuscani is a 13/2 chance. There is something wrong with that in my mind. Furthermore Tuscani didn't do much wrong this year. She was a decent 2yo, winning her maiden fto and finishing a solid 5th in a Listed race, though she was pretty useless during her 3yo campaign. She left Sir M. Stoute in consequence, but looked much better this year I think. Her seasonal reappearance is a performance to ignore and she showed two weeks later that she might benefit from the switch to trainer Mrs. Wadham as she finished a good 2nd in a Doncaster Handicap. It followed the two mentioned performances at Goodwood and Haydock. My feeling is that she may do well with a step up in trip but most certainly she'll be seen at her best with a strong pace so the lack of a confirmed front-runner tomorrow is a worry. But I take this risk as I feel she is well handicapped and better than what she showed this year so far. This race is easier than the last two races as well as the jockey booking of Eddie Ahern looks significant. He enjoys a fine strikerate of 33,33% with Mrs. Wadham this season. 19.20 Kempton: Rockweiller @ 7/1 Bet365 This looks a tricky race and Rockweiller is certainly not the classiest horse in the field but what makes him interesting is the fact that he is the only confirmed front-runner and that he is down to his last winning mark as he won over course and distance earlier this year here at Kempton. He has a super draw as well and it looks highly likely that he can dictate the tempo from the front without being challenged for the lead. Kempton's 10f course is a tricky one and more often than not does a front-runner or prominent ridden horse win these races as It looks pretty difficult to come from behind here and make up enough ground in the only 2f long home straight to win. I think Rockweiller showed a return to form at Wolverhampton lto despite being 13½ beaten in the end. But he finished in fourth, travelled strongly till 3f out, he also made a big move between 4f and 3f out, but simply weakened in the final two furlongs. This race came over 12 furlongs and the step back to 1m 2f will surely suit.