frenchypauly Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 I have a question regarding a good staking plan for the following system.... Montpelier 2.20 - 3.10 - 3.50 Toulouse Bet 1 ) Montpelier £1.00 * 2.20 - £1 = £1.20 - £0.71 = £0.49 - £0.15 = £0.34 Bet 2) Draw £0.71 * 3.10 - £0.71 = £1.49 - £1.00 = £0.49 - £0.15 = £0.34 Now I will wait for the Toulouse odds to rise. Hoping that they get a man sent off, or concede a goal, or that the game stays 0-0 for long. 35 minutes into the game and Montpelier score! Toulouse odds now rise to 15.00. Bet 3) Toulouse £0.15 * 15.00 - £0.15 - £1.00 - £0.71 = £0.39 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- The only money I put up at risk is bet 1 and bet 2 = £1.71 And I can potentially guarantee my self a profit of = £0.34 or a 19.8% profit. Which is the same as betting £1 for a £0.19 profit. What this means is that I need 90% strike rate, an extremely unlikely strike rate. I seem to be getting an excellent strike rate (anything above 50% is good), but the problem is when I take a loss, it really hits hard. So in essence how am I suppose to manage my bank with short odds? Because I am always risking big. So how should I tackle these short odds? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Re: In-Play arbitrage and short odds Add a few correct scores for other team and trade out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Re: In-Play arbitrage and short odds Risky approach is x five bet each time to recover the 20% loss to at least a 20% gain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jd_fortune Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Re: In-Play arbitrage and short odds I don't believe in-play arbitrage will work, unless the odds coming up are substantially off from the true odds and you know which direction they're off. If you're just taking the odds on offer instead of requesting odds then you are also battling an overround on top of commissions. The winnings that you get when the score goes your way and you trade out is only temporary. It will go the opposite way just as often and will eventually work out to even minus the overrrounds and commissions. That kind of "arbitrage" is an illusion. There is no trend to capitalize on, it's just the natural odds playing out. If you started at odds of say 4 laying the draw and then a short time later a goal was cored you appear to make a profit by backing it, but as time is passing those draw odds are steadily decreasing and by the end of the game if no goals were scored they have gone down to the point, odds of 1 (actually 1.01 but I'm using exactly 1 so the math works out exactly), where on a 10 unit stake you will have lost 3 units not counting commission. You only make a few units when a goal is scored. It works out even aside from commissions and overrounds. Interestingly, once a goal is scored the draw odds will only increase from that point by slightly less than 1 unit if no further goals are scored, no matter when the goal was scored. That's how it works. If a goal is then scored by the other team, making a draw, it immediately resumes the same downward decline which it started at the beginning of the game at the same level as it would have been at the same time if no goals had been scored at all and it was still 0-0. The amount that the draw odds decrease if there are no goals is exactly the amount that matches the the total odds increase that occurs when the average number of goals are scored. See how the odds of 4 made up 3 units by the end of the game? That's because in a game with those draw odds the expected number of goals is 3. The draw odds are a little higher than average because that number of goals is a little higher than average. More goals means less chance of a draw. In fact, if you could work out how many goals are likely to be scored in a particular game you could check to see if the draw odds on offer are accurate or not. You just take a back/lay arbitrage calculator and put the draw odds in the back odds box, put 1 in the back stake box, 1 in the lay odds box and hit calculate. The profit that the calculator puts out should be the same as the predicted number of goals. If it's under, the odds are higher than true and vice versa. It will tell you that you should stake 4 on lay to make a profit of 3 in this case. I'm sure there's a way to calculate what the draw odds should be starting with the predicted goals number but I haven't figured it out yet. So far all I can do is check if the odds on offer are accurate or not, in theory at least. Haven't actually figured out how to accurately predict the number of goals yet, other than adding up the average goals for each team when they are home or away, whichever they will be in the upcoming game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jd_fortune Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Re: In-Play arbitrage and short odds By "Interestingly, once a goal is scored the draw odds will only increase from that point by slightly less than 1 unit if no further goals are scored, no matter when the goal was scored." I meant 1 betting unit, the amount you staked, and I meant that this is the amount of money that would be lost if you backed draw right after that goal and then a draw didn't materialize by the end of the game and therefore the odds went up to 1000. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jd_fortune Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Re: In-Play arbitrage and short odds That calculation could be wrong. Apparently the average number of goals in the EPL is 2.62 yet the average draw odds are 3.84. Using the back/lay arb calculator gives 2.84 instead of 2.62. In that case I don't know exactly why it works out to the particular amount of loss if no goals come up after laying draw. It's so close that it looks like it would be the average number of goals yet there appears to be a discrepancy. Guess I need to do more work on it. Sorry for the confusion. I'm still in the early stages of investigating soccer odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Woods Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Re: In-Play arbitrage and short odds This isn't arbitrage.It's trading. Arbitrage is trading multiple sides at the same time locking in a profit no matter what the outcome. Its important to get your terminology correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k0k0 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Re: In-Play arbitrage and short odds I have seen site in play arbitrage, with cross market, there and live middle and live polish middle but the worst thing is that you need someone to come forward, because it is hidden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k0k0 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Re: In-Play arbitrage and short odds I have seen site with in play arbitrage, with cross market, there have and live middle and live polish middle but the worst thing is that you need someone to come forward, because it is hidden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.