Betting system

[masterintoo]

I would just like to say a massive thanks to this forum for changing my betting habits from being a massive loser on betting to just a minor loser and occasional decent winner in recent seasons. Huge thanks to JTW1 and Fleetfanatic as you are the main ones I have followed to change my betting habits. Although I want to say thanks to many others I have copied bets off in recent seasons (Sorry I can't mention you all) I still want to stand on my own two feet though with betting and hopefully somebody can give me advice? I have tested my bets for a year or so and my strike rate is around 55% odds between 1/2 and 2/1 usually around evens.... I want to set up a system where I win a certain amount per bet (I have got a figure of £2 per bet) my bank balance will be £1000. I am figuring in the football season with my knowledge of certain leagues I can look to bet 3-5 matches per day. I know aiming for £10 per day isn't a huge amount but I would be happy with that to help aid my income.... The worrying thing is is this a decent way to bet? I know you can have long losing runs but I would hope my £1000 balance would cover these losses especially with my strike rate? The longest losing run I have had last season is 7 bets which my balance is covering, The worry I have is is this similar to the martingale system? I am not mathematically minded and struggle to design spreadsheets which help with my betting so can only go on instinct.. Any tips on how many losing bets I can cover with my balance and whether you think a better system could help with my balance would be awesome? I know I can follow a system now which is a massive achievement for me because I used to bet on anything before, I need to thank this forum for that and if you can show me how to donate to the forum/certain members I will certainly do that.... Sorry if this sounds amateurish but I am still a noobie and have just bet for fun for many years, It is only the last year I have changed my stance on how to bet....

[KevinTHFC]

Re: Betting system Assuming you want to win £2 per bet, and to keep it simple lets say they are all at evens and you have had 7 losing bets in a row. The stake for your eighth bet in order to win £16 at evens would be £510

[betting101]

Re: Betting system @materintoo my advice would be as follow - start betting flat £2 per bet and place only bets on matches that provide value - do not try margintale version, that would only create trouble in the long run first thing you need to do is to read up on "value betting"

[The Saint]

Re: Betting system Also - based on 5 bets a day (for 365 days) the LLR you can expect is around 9.5 - so although 7 would = a bet of £510, the ninth or tenth would potentially see your bank gone. Work out your actual or theoretical LLR (in this case 9.5). Multiply it by a factor between 2 and 5 depending on how confident you are with the system. Lets say 3 as you have a 55% SR - so 28.5. I'd divide my £1,000 by that figure and bet £35 per game. You quite possibly won't make as much but you shouldn't go bust either. At a strike rate of 55% at even money per selection, you would be up £350 every 100 games or over 6k at 5 games per day for the year. Seems a bit fanciful to me! Regardless, your proposed staking plan may work for a very long time but the phychological aspects of going from putting on £2 to putting on £500 and then a £1,000 by losing bets 7 and 8 would mean that you would no doubt lose your bank in the long term. This is also based on everything being even money where as in reality, there are probably plenty of 8/13 and 4/6 shots involved. Run your previous results through with your proposed system - would you still be punting? Then change the order of the results and see if it changes your mind. Good Luck with it whichever way you go.