Confused about Odds!!!!

[Mark]

Hi Im looking to find out what types of information people use to produce their own odds for football like (form, league position, strength off opposition etc). I think I understand that "value" is where the oods offered by the bookies are better than your own odds for the respective outcome. What i'm struggling with his how people come up with their own odds. All comments much appreciated. Thanks

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Confused about Odds!!!! Most people will use a range of information like the things you have mentioned. Im not sure if this is quite what you're looking for but this is how you price up a game. First of all you obviously need to decide what you feel is the chances of each result.ie. Home, Away or Draw. This can be done many ways using many factors, depending on what you feel has the biggest impact. Once you've done this you can price it up. Heres an example, say you had Man Utd vs Southampton and after studying you decided each result had the following chances: Man Utd win = 70% chance Draw = 20% chance Southampton win = 10% chance You then do (1/chance)*100 to get the price as a decimal, so: Man Utd win = 1.43(around 4/9) Draw = 5.0(or 4/1) Southampton win = 10.0(or 9/1) You'll never see bookies odds like this as they calculate the chances with an overround which means their total chance comes to between 103-110% usually, instead of 100%. This is just their built in factor though to help them fleece the punters. Hope this has been of some help.