Flat Racing - Sunday 22nd July 2012

[robertob]

14.10 Curragh: Up @ 10/3 Paddy Power Third time luck? I hope so. She was twice already my BBOTD without winning but I keep faith in her. She ran usually very well and clearly offers the stand out form in this field. She was 2nd in the French 2.000 Guineas, when she stayed on strongly, she stepped up in distance then when having a nightmare run in the French Oaks. She would have gone very close with a clear run there but was denied that and finished only 7th as a result. Three weeks ago she took part in the Pretty Polly Stakes, where she ended up last of the four runners but only 2¼ lengths beaten in the end. After contesting in three top class Group 1's in a row, always giving a good account, she steps down in class, racing tomorrow in this Group 3, and is also down in trip. Caponata is obviously the main danger and looks potentially very smart but has to prove her class here and I think Up must have have a massive chance in this field and should be the favourite actually. 15.20 Curragh: Twirl @ 25/1 Paddy Power I think this is quite a big price for Twirl who could outran her odds easily I think. It's interesting to see her declared with blinkers for the first time. That might help her to be focused better on the job when it really matters. This years Irish Oaks are a very strong renewal and Twirl needs to improve but I feel she didn't show her true potential yet. She was well beaten by Princess Highway recently at Ascot but she was slightly hampered 2,5f out and lost momentum, while travelling very well till that point actually. PH was unstoppable that day though. It has to be seen if she can repeat that performance. The ground tomorrow at the Curragh will be between soft and heavy and PH never encountered ground worse than good to soft. But Twirl won impressively at Leopardstown on soft ground last year and will probably relish tomorrow's conditions. That must give her a chance here and it could pay off to give her another chance at this level. 15.55: Chicago @ 4/1 Paddy Power This is a proper chance for Aiden O'Brien daughter Sarah to win her first race ever. Chicago won convincingly at Fairyhouse seven days ago, travelling very well and almost won it in a canter. He was obviously much better than the opposition and much better than a rating of 85. The handicapper raised him by 10lb for that success, what looks a bit harsh maybe, but I think it's rather fair and given the fact that this 3yo colt can still improve it might be still not enough to stop him. He is proven on soft ground as well and this race looks not too competitive. Salam Alaykum and Placere and Scots Gaelic are the main dangers, but I have my reservations about this trio.

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing - Sunday 22nd July 2012 *Secret Witness - Ascot 5:05* Is running off top weight here for this big handicap, but nonetheless i feel it has the ability to win off this mark. It has won over this trip, and won a big race at York back in May. Is not the easiest horse to win with, it needs to be given a patient well-times ride, but the jockey knows the horse well. Was 2nd to Hazelrigg last time out when looking a sure winner, but the third in that race, Steps, came out and won impressively today. Ron Harris has a great record at Ascot, 45 runners, 4 winners, profit of +£51.00 to level stakes. James Doyle has a very good record when riding for Harris, 4 winners from 17 rides, profit of +£17.00 to level stakes. *0.5 Points e/w @ 16/1 Paddy Power BOG*