Just how important is teams news, injuries, suspensions etc.?

[Marcdude182]

Hey, I think form and head to head statistics are vitally important in deciding wether to bet/trade or not and i'm currently creating a system which would have factored in team news but i'm wondering just how important it really is. I remember reading a book about gambling on football and the author (i think it was Kevin Pullein) was giving the argument that it isnt all that important. He showed you some statistics from one of Liverpool's seasons in the Premier League where Gerrard was missing for a chunk of it. He compared the matches Gerrard played with the matches that he never and the difference as far as games won was very small from what i remember. I guess we've all heard the saying that one man doesn't make a team and i guess two or three men don't either, especially if a quality manager is involved. Take Barcelona for example, do you think they would still win if Messi, Xavi and Iniesta were all out? probably, and to look at it in a different way, would Linfield work their way from the First qualifying round of the Champions League all the way to the final if they had Messi, Xavi and Iniesta in their side? no Anyway there are a lot of experienced people on this forum who i hope can give me some of their opinions on this matter, there are some excellent systems already on here that do not factor in team news which if you followed you would find yourself in profit at the end of the year. Thanks for taking the time to read my post and i hope you can share your thoughts on this :)

[Jase82]

Re: Just how important is teams news, injuries, suspensions etc.? For me I think team news is often overplayed, but is still a crutial part of the criteria when making a selection. You should always looks at what sort of players are coming in as replacements too.... especially further down the league pyramid system you go quality between different players becomes less and less. So, whilst there are occasions where a side is missing a key player, often when there are times where quite a few are missing the players that come in can perform to an equal standard, or sometimes even better. I think there's a misconception sometimes that the replacement players are somehow that much worse than the players they are replacing. Bottom line is it depends, and it now comes to a point where I don't really look at team news at all. When a side is missing their top goal scorer for instance, they may have a replacement that can easily put the ball in the back of the net, as it is the midfield that create the chances. Missing defenders as well - as long as the replacement has two legs and is 6 foot then I see no reason to get too carried away with missing defenders. I think the most important position to keep an eye on is goalkeeper. Obviously I have no stats to back this up, but I tend to believe a side is more likely to concede if they change goalkeeper. But then that would depend on the experience of the player coming in, and what the form was prior to the enforced/unenforced absence of said goalkeeper.